Judgments Under Uncertainty and Time Pressure: Modeling and Analysis of Operators' Judgments of Customers' Creditworthiness

Abstract

Judgments about uncertain environments have been studied extensively in a variety of settings. The judgments of operators regarding customers' creditworthiness when they wish to purchase items that extend their credit lines over their limits are of particular interest. The lens model and its extension provide a framework to identify an environmental state based on relevant cues. An analysis of the performance of operators' judgments in a financial institution by use of the lens method is presented in this paper. The results of the analysis show that there are differences in the judgment policies of operators in many areas including the methods for using information, the consistency in implementing judgment policies, among other. These differences are very critical elements in an institution's relationship with its customers. Finally, an on-going experiment to support and train operators in the making of consistent and valid judgments by the use of cognitive feedback is discussed.

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