Capturing Insights to Reduce Future Warfighter Fatalities

Until recently, there has been a widely-held belief that if an infantryman survives the first few combat encounters or firefights of a deployment, the Soldier is likely to survive the full tour of duty. Though it has been discussed anecdotally that military units tend to suffer higher casualty rates in their first engagements with the enemy, the “first five firefights” belief has not been validated. In this study, we examined the “first five firefights” concept to evaluate if Soldiers have an increased chance of becoming a fatality during their early days of deployment. By gathering and analyzing Soldier fatality data, conducting interviews with Soldiers, and evaluating human performance models of common fatality scenarios, we found the “first five” concept to be untrue. Rather, we identified that Soldiers are particularly vulnerable to becoming a fatality within the first three months of deployment. Soldiers also experience a period of increased vulnerability at mid-deployment and again near the end of the deployment. These vulnerabilities, explored through interviews with Soldiers, have implications for changes in training, tactics, techniques, and procedures in today's military.