Response surface modeling of precision-guided fragmentation munitions

The use of precision-guided artillery rounds has increased in recent years, but analytical models within simulations that enable effect analysis and tradeoff analysis between precision and conventional munitions are lacking. This paper develops an analytical model of precision-guided fragmentation munitions effects for low-resolution simulations. A modification of the commonly used Carlton Damage Function, called the Klopcic Hybrid approach, is implemented within a baseline simulation that addresses the Carlton Damage Function’s shortcomings and implementation issues. A designed experiment using a range of parameters accounting for many weapon types is then performed using a space filling design whose results are used in constructing an empirical model. The baseline simulation for the magnitude of target location error, a trait not normally modeled in simulations but critical in the determination of precision munition use, is addressed. A response surface is developed that analytically models the nonlinear behavior of the dependent variable. Defendable and traceable response functions are developed for varying precision munition types and target location error ranges that are flexible to a broad range of munition capabilities.