Abstract
Background
Controversy exists regarding the best-performing vascular access type for patients undergoing haemodialysis. We aimed to compare outcomes of starting dialysis on arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) versus arteriovenous grafts (AVGs) in haemodialysis patients.
Methods
We conducted a systematic search of multiple electronic information sources and bibliographic reference lists. The following outcome parameters were evaluated at 1, 2 and 5 years: primary failure, defined as access never used for dialysis; primary patency, defined as intervention-free access survival; primary-assisted patency, defined as uninterrupted access survival with interventions; and secondary patency, defined as cumulative access survival.
Results
We identified 15 comparative studies reporting a total of 118,434 patients who initiated haemodialysis with AVF (n = 95,143) or AVG (n = 23,291). Our analysis demonstrated that AVF was associated with significantly higher primary failure rate (OR: 2.05, p = .0005) but significantly higher rate of primary patency at 1 year (OR: 1.91, p < .00001), at 2 years (OR: 2.52, p < .00001) and at 5 years (OR: 2.59, p < .00001); and primary-assisted patency at 1 year (OR: 1.71, p < .00001), at 2 years (OR: 2.13, p < .00001) and 5 years (OR: 2.79, p < .00001). There was no significant difference in secondary patency at 1 year (OR: 1.08, p < .00001) but AVF had better secondary patency at 2 years (OR: 1.26, p < .00001) and 5 years (OR: 1.60, p < .00001) than AVG.
Conclusions
The meta-analysis of best available comparative evidence (Level 2) demonstrated that AVFs may be associated with significantly higher primary failure rate but higher primary patency, primary-assisted patency and secondary patency at 1, 2 and 5 years compared to AVGs. However, the available evidence is subject to significant selection bias and confounding by indication.
Introduction
Controversy persists regarding the best permanent vascular access type in patients undergoing haemodialysis more than 50 years after Brescia and Cimino et al. 1 described haemodialysis on a surgically created arteriovenous fistula (AVF). There is ongoing debate on the merits of arteriovenous grafts (AVGs) versus AVFs and continuing uncertainty over the performance of different types of fistulas in spite of vascular access outcomes designated as a core outcome measure for haemodialysis patients alongside fatigue, cardiovascular disease and mortality in the global Standardized Outcomes in Nephrology–Hemodialysis (SONG-HD) initiative. 2
Access function is considered the most important vascular access outcome measure in haemodialysis patients, 2 but high-level evidence regarding the best functioning access type is lacking. 3 Guidelines unanimously recommend autologous fistulas as the best form of access,4–6 but the debate regarding the best access still continues.7,8 Proponents of fistula firstly argue that prosthetic grafts should only be used if no autologous options are available,9,10 whilst advocates of the catheter last, challenge the benefits of AVFs over AVGs.11,12
Widespread variation therefore exists in vascular access use between countries and within facilities in the same country, with associated differences in patient survival.13–16 This is similarly true regarding the type of autologous fistula use. 17
Contributing to the weak evidence base is the observation that it is difficult to compare access function between different types of permanent vascular access. Access function, although critically important for patients and clinicians, is reported inconsistently in randomised trials, making it difficult to make informed decisions. 18 A systematic review of vascular access outcomes, including 168 haemodialysis trials, showed that although access function was reported in the vast majority of the trials, it was the most heterogeneous outcome due to the variety of ways it was assessed. Access function was measured in 489 different ways and at 46 different time points. 18
To our knowledge, no meta-analysis has evaluated comparative outcomes of AVFs and AVGs in haemodialysis patients. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis of outcomes to compare initiating haemodialysis on AVFs or AVGs in terms of primary failure rate as well as long-term access patency, in order to add to the evidence base and contribute to the debate on reporting outcomes of vascular access in haemodialysis patients.
Methods
Design and study selection
The inclusion and exclusion criteria, methodology, and investigated outcome parameters of this review were highlighted in a review protocol. Our methodology respected the standards of Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. 19
Inclusion criteria
• All comparative studies including: • Patients aged > 18 years and of any gender • Patients undergoing placement of any type of AVF for haemodialysis as intervention of interest • Patients undergoing placement of any type of AVG for haemodialysis as comparison of interest
Exclusion criteria
• Single arm observational studies • Case series • Case reports • Letters to editors
Primary failure, primary patency, primary-assisted patency and secondary patency at 1, 2 and 5 years were the evaluated outcome parameters. Primary failure was defined as an access that has never been used for dialysis. Primary patency was defined as the time between access placement and any intervention designed to maintain or re-establish patency, or to access thrombosis, or the time of measurement of patency and is similar to intervention-free access survival. Primary-assisted patency was defined as the interval from time of access placement to access thrombosis or time of measurement of patency, including intervening manipulations (surgical or endovascular interventions) designed to maintain the functionality of a patent access and is similar to uninterrupted access survival. Secondary patency was defined as the interval from time of access placement to access abandonment due to access failure and is similar to cumulative access survival.
Literature search strategy
A comprehensive search strategy was formulated based on thesaurus headings, search operators and limits in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature and CENTRAL. Two independent reviewers conducted the literature search via the aforementioned databases and searched the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry http://apps.who.int/trialsearch/, ClinicalTrials.gov http://clinicaltrials.gov/ and the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number Register http://www.isrctn.com/ to identify ongoing and unpublished studies. The same authors independently searched the reference lists of relevant articles and reviews to identify relevant trials. The literature search began on 2 April 2020 and lasted for 6 days. Appendix 1 presents the search strategy that was used for literature search.
Selection of studies
Two reviewers carefully assessed the title and abstract of articles found as the result of literature search. When necessary, the full-texts of relevant articles were retrieved and carefully evaluated against the eligibility criteria of this study. Studies that met our eligibility criteria were included. Discrepancies in this process were resolved by discussion between the authors. However, if the disagreement still existed, an independent author was consulted.
Data extraction and management
An electronic data extraction spreadsheet according to Cochrane’s recommendations for intervention reviews was created and was pilot-tested in randomly selected articles and adjusted accordingly. The following information was extracted from each of the included studies by two independent reviewers: • Study-related data (first author, publication year, country of origin of the corresponding author, journal in which the study was published, study design, procedure performed, surgical approach and sample size in each group). • Baseline demographic and clinical information of the study populations (age, gender, body mass index, history of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, cerebrovascular accident, ischaemic heart disease or myocardial infarction, and peripheral vascular disease). • Primary and secondary outcome data.
Disagreements during this process were resolved following consultation with an additional author.
Assessment of risk of bias
The methodological quality and risk of bias assessment were carried out by two authors using the Newcastle–Ottawa scale (NOS) 20 as all of our included studies were observational studies. The NOS is a star-based scoring system (maximum score: 9) which enables review authors to evaluate an observational study in the following aspects: the selection of the study groups, the comparability of the groups and the ascertainment of outcome of interest. Studies with a score of nine stars were deemed to be at low risk of bias, studies with a score of seven or eight stars were deemed to be at medium risk of bias and those that scored six or less were judged to be at high risk of bias. We resolved discrepancies in risk of bias assessment by discussion between the assessing authors. Nevertheless, if no agreement could be reached, a third reviewer was involved as an adjudicator.
Summary measures and synthesis
For dichotomous outcome variables, we calculated the odds ratio (OR) as the summary measure The OR is the odds of an event in the AVF group compared to the AVG group. In the analysis of primary failure, an OR of less than one would favour the AVF group. In the analyses of primary patency, primary-assisted patency and secondary patency at 1, 2 and 5 years, an OR of more than 1 would favour the AVF group.
The unit of analysis regarding all evaluated outcomes was a vascular access site. Where possible, data regarding dropouts, withdrawals and other missing information were recorded.
One independent review author entered the extracted data into Review Manager 5.3 software for data synthesis. 21 The entered data were subsequently checked by a second independent review author. Random-effects modelling was used for analysis. We reported the results of our analysis for each outcome parameter in a forest plot with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).
Heterogeneity among the studies was assessed using the Cochran Q test (χ2). We quantified inconsistency by calculating I2 and interpreted it using the following guide: 0%–50% might not be important, 50%–75% may represent moderate heterogeneity and 75%–100% may represent substantial heterogeneity. Moreover, where more than 10 studies were available in analysis of an outcome parameter, funnel plots were constructed in order to assess their symmetry to visually evaluate publication bias.
We conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the effect of each study on the overall effect size and heterogeneity by repeating the analysis following excluding one study at a time (leave-one-out sensitivity analysis).
Results
Our literature search yielded 3316 articles. After further evaluation of the identified articles, 23 articles were shortlisted for potential inclusion. A further eight studies were excluded as four were single-arm studies, three were reviews and the remaining one did not provide enough data. Therefore, 1522–36 comparative observational studies, two prospective and 13 retrospective were included (Figure 1). The included studies reported on a total number of 118,434 patients, of whom 95,143 patients initiated haemodialysis with AVFs and 23,291 initiated haemodialysis with AVGs. Study flow diagram.
Summary characteristics of included studies.
Note: AVF: arteriovenous fistulas; AVG: arteriovenous grafts.
Methodological appraisal
Methodological quality of the observational studies assessed with the NOC.
Note: NOC: Newcastle–Ottawa Scale.
Outcome synthesis
Outcomes are summarised in Figures 2 and 3. Forest plots of comparison of (a) primary failure, (b) primary patency at 1 year, (c) primary patency at 2 years, (d) primary patency at 5 years, (e) primary-assisted patency at 1 year, (f) primary-assisted patency at 2 years, (g) primary-assisted patency at 5 years, (h) secondary patency at 1 year, (i) secondary patency at 2 years and (j) secondary patency at 5 years. The solid squares denote the ORs. The horizontal lines represent the 95% CIs, and the diamond denotes the pooled effect size. Note: M-H: Mantel–Haenszel test; OR: odds ratios; CIs: confidence intervals. Funnel plots of comparison of (a) primary patency at 1 year and (b) primary patency at 2 years.

Primary failure
Eight studies (2969 accesses) were included in the analysis of primary failure. The primary failure rate in the AVF group was 32.3% compared to 20.3% in the AVG group. AVFs were associated with significantly higher failure rates than AVG (OR: 2.05, 95% CI: 1.37–3.07, p = .0005). The between-study heterogeneity was moderate (I2: 75%, p = .0005).
Primary patency at 1 year
Thirteen studies (117,968 accesses) were included in the analysis of primary patency at 1 year. The primary patency rate at 1 year in the AVF and AVG groups were 42.5% and 31.9%, respectively. AVFs were associated with significantly higher primary patency at 1 year than AVGs (OR: 1.91, 95% CI: 1.65–2.23, p < .00001). Significant heterogeneity existed among the included studies (I2: 80%, p < .00001).
Primary patency at 2 years
Twelve studies (118,237 accesses) were included in the analysis of primary patency at 2 years. The primary patency rate at 2 years in the AVF and AVG groups were 33.8% and 20.5%, respectively. AVFs were associated with a significantly higher rate of primary patency at 2 years than AVGs (OR: 2.52, 95% CI: 2.08–3.95, p < .00001). However, significant heterogeneity existed among the included studies (I2: 87%, p < .00001).
Primary patency at 5 years
Three studies (114,559 accesses) were included in the analysis of primary patency at 5 years. The primary patency rate at 5 years in the AVF and AVG groups were 19.6% and 8.9%, respectively. AVFs were associated with a significantly higher rate of primary patency at 5 years than AVGs (OR: 2.59, 95% CI: 2.20–3.04, p < .00001). Significant heterogeneity existed among the included studies (I2: 75%, p = .02).
Primary-assisted patency at 1 year
Four studies (114,729 accesses) were included in the analysis of primary-assisted patency at 1 year. The primary-assisted patency rate at 1 year in the AVF and AVG groups were 52.6% and 39.3%, respectively. AVFs were associated with a significantly higher rate of primary-assisted patency at 1 year than AVGs (OR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.66–1.77, p < .00001). Low heterogeneity existed among the included studies (I2: 15%, p < .00001).
Primary-assisted patency at 2 years
Four studies (115,134 accesses) were included in the analysis of primary-assisted patency at 2 years. The primary-assisted patency rate at 2 years in the AVF and AVG groups were 46.2% and 28.9%, respectively. AVFs were associated with a significantly higher rate of primary-assisted patency at 2 years than AVGs (OR: 2.13, 95% CI: 2.06–2.20, p < .00001). The between-study heterogeneity was low (I2: 0%, p = .86).
Primary-assisted patency at 5 years
Two studies (114,430 accesses) were included in the analysis of primary-assisted patency at 5 years. The primary-assisted patency rate at 5 years in the AVF and AVG groups were 34.4% and 15.8%, respectively. AVFs were associated with a significantly higher rate of primary-assisted patency at 5 years than AVGs (OR: 2.79, 95% CI: 2.68–2.90, p < .00001). The between-study heterogeneity was moderate (I2: 32%, p = .23).
Secondary patency at 1 year
Thirteen studies (116,406 accesses) were included in the analysis of secondary patency at 1 year. The secondary patency rate at 1 year in the AVF and AVG groups were 58.9% and 57.2%, respectively. There was no significant difference in the secondary patency rate at 1 year between two groups (OR: 1.08, 95% CI: .98–1.19, p = .12). Moderate heterogeneity existed among the included studies (I2: 54%, p = .03).
Secondary patency at 2 years
Twelve studies (116,811 accesses) were included in the analysis of secondary patency at 2 years. Secondary patency rate at 2 years in the AVF and AVG groups were 53.7% and 48.3%, respectively. AVF was associated with a significantly higher rate of secondary patency at 2 years than AVG (OR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.23–1.30, p < .00001). Moderate heterogeneity existed among the included studies (I2: 40%, p = .10).
Secondary patency at 5 years
Three studies (114,559 accesses) were included in the analysis of secondary patency at 5 years. The secondary patency rate at 5 years in the AVF and AVG groups were 43.2% and 32.8%, respectively. AVFs were associated with significantly higher rate of secondary patency at 5 years compared to AVGs (OR: 1.60, 95% CI 1.37–1.87, p < .00001). Significant heterogeneity existed among the included studies (I2: 89%, p = .0001).
Sensitivity analysis
Using random-effects or fixed-effect models did not affect the pooled effect size in any of the outcomes. The direction of pooled effect size remained unchanged when the OR, RR or RD was calculated. Moreover, one-leave-out sensitivity analyses did not change the direction of pooled effect size in any of the outcomes.
Discussion
In view of ongoing debate regarding the best choice of vascular access for haemodialysis, we conducted a comprehensive literature search and identified 15 comparative studies22–36 reporting a total of 118,434 patients. Our meta-analysis of outcomes demonstrated that AVFs had significantly higher primary failure rates than AVGs. However, initiation of haemodialysis with an AVF was associated with better long-term function as indicated in the significantly higher primary patency and primary-assisted patency at 1, 2 and 5 years, and higher rate of secondary patency at 2 and 5 years compared to AVGs. The between-study heterogeneity in the analyses of primary-assisted patency at 1, 2 and 5 years, and secondary patency at 2 years were low, indicating that these findings are robust. Moderate between-study heterogeneity in the analysis of secondary patency at 1 year indicates variation of reporting in the included studies on this outcome. There was high heterogeneity among the included studies in the analyses of primary failure and primary patency at 1, 2 and 5 years, and secondary patency at 5 years, indicating that our findings about these outcomes may be less robust. However, our findings indicate that AVFs that worked probably delivered more dialysis days and more intervention-free dialysis days than AVGs. Since functional dialysis days were not reported, it is difficult to come to a firm conclusion on which strategy delivers most functional dialysis days and intervention-free dialysis days for our haemodialysis patients.
The definition of primary failure was homogenous among all the included studies as an access that was never used for dialysis although in one study 24 some accesses that failed within a month were also included. However, it was poorly reported whether the reason for patients who never used their access was because they never progressed to dialysis or not. The included studies homogenously defined primary patency, primary-assisted patency and secondary patency.
We believe this is the first meta-analysis of comparative studies which evaluated the outcomes of AVFs and AVGs in haemodialysis patients. In 2014, Al-Jaishi et al. 37 conducted a systematic review and pooled analysis of all studies evaluating the patency of AVFs in haemodialysis patients. They included 46 studies enrolling a total number of 12,383 AVFs and reported that the pooled primary patency rates at 1 year and 2 years were 60% and 51%, respectively, and a pooled secondary patency rate of AVFs at 1 year and 2 years of 71% and 64%, respectively. Our estimated pooled primary patency rates of AVFs at 1 and 2 years of 42.5% and 33.8%, are lower than those reported by Al-Jaishi et al. 37 Similarly, our pooled secondary patency rates of AVFs at 1 year (58.9%) and 2 years (53.7%) were lower. The primary failure rate associated with AVFs in this meta-analysis was 32.3%, which is higher than the primary failure reported by Al-Jaishi et al. 37 of 23%. It should be considered that our pooled population size was approximately 10 times larger than the Al-Jaishi study and our findings are less subject to type 2 error. Most importantly, Al-Jaishi et al. 37 mainly included single-arm studies in their review. Almasri et al. 38 also conducted a meta-analysis of non-comparative studies with similar limitations associated with study of Al-Jaishi et al. 37 We only included comparative studies which have more robust methodological quality and provide a higher level of evidence. In 2016, Almasri et al.38 reviewed 200 vascular access related studies and conducted a meta-analysis of outcomes of more than 17 access types to determine their pooled primary and secondary patency. However, despite including some comparative studies, no meta-analysis of comparative outcomes were conducted. The authors only determined the pooled patency rates on each access type from mixed single-arm and few comparative studies. A true comparative meta-analysis should provide an estimate of pooled effect size such as OR, RR or hazard ratio (HR) with associated p value. We believe our meta-analysis is the first to provide such comparative measures.
Our findings of a higher primary failure rate of AVFs but higher long-term patency rates, up to 5 years, is well recognised in the vascular access world. However, the lack of hard evidence to come to firm conclusions on which strategy is best supports the SONG-HD conclusion pertaining to the problems with comparisons between access function of different types of permanent vascular access. Our meta-analysis primarily showed that it was not possible to directly compare access function, with one simple criterion that includes both primary failure and long-term access function. Functional dialysis days per access creation and intervention-free functional dialysis days per access creation include both primary failure and long-term function but often cannot be distilled from comparative studies as time to failure is not reported.
Furthermore, our meta-analysis demonstrated that the best available evidence (Level 2) failed to sufficiently report the comparative outcomes of AVFs and AVGs with respect to baseline characteristic of haemodialysis patients. The included studies rarely reported their outcomes with respect to baseline characteristic of the included patients such as age, gender, diabetes mellitus, etc. Although they demonstrated comparability of some characteristics, the heterogeneous reporting of patient’s clinical characteristics did not allow us to report the outcomes with respect to them. Most importantly, the central issue of observational studies comparing different types of vascular access for haemodialysis is that the patients might have been selected to have placement of grafts rather than fistulas because of clinical characteristics, such as poor vessel quality or urgent need to start haemodialysis. Furthermore, when focusing on patients who initiate haemodialysis with fistulas rather than grafts, patients with non-maturing fistulas who start with a catheter or graft are not analysed according to the initial vascular access strategy. This introduces selection bias or ‘confounding by indication’.
Interestingly, the included studies in our meta-analysis reported mainly surgeon-centred outcomes, such as primary patency, primary-assisted patency or secondary patency, rather than patient-centred outcomes such as primary failure, intervention-free functional dialysis days, total functional dialysis days, satisfaction with access, ease of cannulation or quality of life. In fact, of the patient-centred outcomes, only primary failure, which arguably is both patient- and surgeon-centred, was reported by the included studies. Even though the primary failure has been reported by some of the included studies, the pooled population size in the analysis of primary failure (around 3000 vascular accesses) was much lower than the pooled population size of the other outcomes (at least around 114,000 vascular accesses). This is remarkable as vascular access is created to enable dialysis. Vascular access function may be defined differently by surgeons or patients. Patients may define an access function as the ability to receive uninterrupted and adequate dialysis without the need for interventions rather than using parameters that surgeons are interested in such as flow or patency. Moreover, the vascular access outcomes have been heterogeneously reported with over 1400 different outcome measures used to report 23 different vascular access outcomes. The need for successful implementation of a standardised core outcome measure for vascular access in haemodialysis research that is important to patients, caregivers and health professionals is obvious. The SONG-HD initiatives have recommended core outcome measures for vascular access that are meaningful and feasible to be reported consistently across studies. 2 Compliance to such recommendations can contribute to more meaningful comparison of function of different access types. Considering our findings and the recommendations from SONG-HD, we strongly recommend future high-quality research to consider standardised patient- and surgeon-centred outcomes of access function with respect to baseline characteristics of their study populations to provide stronger evidence in favour of either access type.
The limitations of this meta-analysis should be taken into account when interpreting its findings. None of the included studies were randomised controlled trials. All of the included studies were observational studies, and selection bias was present. Most of the included studies had moderate to high risk of bias. Moreover, the outcomes reported by the included studies and, subsequently, this meta-analysis were not evaluated with respect to baseline demographics and clinical characteristics of the included studies which hampers making solid conclusions on the superiority of each approach. Furthermore, we were not able to analyse the outcomes with respect to different types of AVFs or AVGs due to significant heterogeneity in the type of vascular accesses used. Also, not all the included studies reported all outcome measures, resulting in different number of included studies in analysis of each outcome. It should be highlighted that two of our included studies,35,36 accounting for the vast majority of included patients, were conducted by the same group. Although it is not clear whether overlapping patients were included in both studies, there is a possibility that some of the patients were included twice in outcome synthesis potentially skewing the results. However, we conducted one-leave-out sensitivity analysis with exclusion of one study at a time, and the direction of the pooled effect size remained unchanged. Importantly, our evaluated outcomes were better to be investigated as time-to-event outcomes. However, the available data in the included studies did not allow conducting HRs meta-analytical models on the natural logarithm scale. Finally, the patient-centred outcomes were poorly reported by the included studies.
Conclusions
The meta-analysis of best available comparative evidence (Level 2) suggests that initiating haemodialysis on an AVF is associated with significantly higher primary failure rate but higher primary patency, primary-assisted patency and secondary patency at 1, 2 and 5 years compared to AVGs. Failure to directly compare access function, with one simple criterion that includes both primary failure and long-term access function and limitations associated with the available evidence with respect to baseline characteristics, reporting of patient-centred outcomes, and variety of vascular access types used, do not allow making solid conclusions to resolve the existing controversies. We encourage future high-quality randomised studies with standardised patient- and surgeon-centred outcomes of access function.
Footnotes
Author contributions
Conception and design: TW and Shahin H
Literature search and study selection: HB and PG
Data collection: Shahin H, Shahab H, HB and PG
Analysis and interpretation: Shahin H and Shahab H
Writing the article: Shahin H, Shahab H and TW
Critical revision of the article: All authors
Final approval of the article: All authors
Declaration of conflicting interests
The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Funding
The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Appendix 1
aThis search strategy was adopted for following databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL).
Search No
Search strategy
a*
#1
MeSH descriptor: [arteriovenous graft] explode all trees
#2
arteriovenous graft: TI, AB, KW
#3
MeSH descriptor: [arteriovenous fistula] explode all trees
#4
arteriovenous fistula: TI, AB, KW
#5
MeSH descriptor: [radio-cephalic fistula] explode all trees
#6
radio-cephalic fistula: TI, AB, KW
#7
MeSH descriptor: [brachiocephalic fistula] explode all trees
#8
brachiocephalic fistula: TI, AB, KW
#9
MeSH descriptor: [vascular access] explode all trees
#10
Vascular access: TI,AB,KW
#11
#1 OR #2 OR #3 OR #4 OR #5 OR #6 OR #7 OR #8 OR #9 OR #10
#12
MeSH descriptor: [haemodialysis] explode all trees
#13
haemodialysis: TI, AB, KW
#14
hemodialysis: TI, AB, KW
#15
#11 OR #14
#16
#11 AND #15
