Abstract
General practice is entering a period of rapid change and requires research evidence to guide it. The ‘gold standard’ model of research, based on randomised controlled trials that are expensive, take several years to complete, and even more years to be implemented, is insufficient to inform the rapidly changing primary care landscape. This article will discuss a new kind of research, co-produced by academics, patients, and NHS staff, which offers a more realistic approach to informing policy and service development in a timely manner. We use the example of multimorbidity to discuss the need for such research. Multimorbidity is not the only population challenge that general practice faces, but it is a key one. Given the very limited evidence-base for how best to manage patients with multimorbidity, discussed in more detail below, it is a prime target for a new kind of research.
The GP curriculum and a new kind of research
Evidence-based practice and statistics Research and academic activity Clinical governance and quality improvement Information management and technology
A new kind of research for a new kind of practice
Research in the ‘middle-ground’
Multiple new ways of working, and new models of general practice and primary care, are being developed and piloted, such as alternatives to face-to-face consultations, different triage systems, extending the role of the practice nurse, the training of advanced practitioners, direct access to physiotherapists for acute as well as chronic musculoskeletal problems, and direct patient care delivered by pharmacists within the practice, to name but a few. All of these initiatives are welcome, and should reduce pressure on GPs, help alleviate the workforce crisis in general practice, and allow GPs to have more time to provide generalist care to patients with complex needs. However, extending the role and complexity of the multidisciplinary team also brings challenges, including roles and responsibilities and continuity of care. These changes are also taking place within a wider agenda to better integrate health and social care. The direction of travel is exciting and much needed, but it means that the landscape (both for patients and for GPs) has never been more complex.
This potential transformation of general practice requires research evidence to guide it, and evaluation to inform it. The ‘gold-standard’ model of research - based on randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is still much needed. These provide the most definitive scientific answer as to whether an intervention has benefit or not (although only within the confines of the trial sample, which is often not representative of the broader population).
Strengths and weaknesses in innovation development and evaluation.
Guthrie B, Gillies J, Calderwood C, et al., (2017) Developing middle-ground research to support primary care transformation. British Journal of General Practice, 67(664), 498–499. Reproduced with permission.
Why do we need middle-ground research?
The population challenge
The NHS is dependent on a strong generalist primary care system that is able to deal holistically with the needs of the population served, and, in particular, the complex challenges of patients with multimorbidity in the context of both ageing and deprivation (Barnett et al., 2012). Multimorbidity is the norm rather than the exception in people aged 65 years and over, and is associated over time with an increased risk of frailty and loss of independence. The rise in multimorbidity with age is shown in Fig. 1, taken from a study of almost 1 800 000 general practice patients in Scotland. It can be seen that as the population ages, then multimorbidity affects more than 50% of the population by age 65 years and by 75 years most people have three or more conditions.
Multimorbidity increases with age.
Multimorbidity, in the context of health inequalities, occurs at a much younger age in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation and often consists of mental and physical comorbidities inter-twined with social issues. Figure 2 shows the social patterning of multimorbidity by deprivation.
Multimorbidity occurs at an earlier age as level of deprivation increases.
These findings, which have been replicated in large samples in England and other countries, reflect the complex care needs of much of the population, and illustrate why a single-disease focus is no longer sufficient to provide high-quality holistic care.
The practical challenge
The evidence-base for how best to manage patients with multimorbidity in general practice is extremely limited. A Cochrane Review in 2016 found only 18 RCTs worldwide, and mostly these did not show any evidence of benefit (Smith et al., 2016). The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Guidelines on multimorbidity highlight the need for more evidence (NICE, 2016). Multimorbidity also raises challenges of polypharmacy, and the associated problems of adverse drug reactions, drug–drug interaction, and drug–disease interactions, thus making patient safety a key concern. Patients with multimorbidity may also experience ‘treatment burden’ given the considerable self-management demands from multiple complex conditions, and the fact that the health service, including general practice, is largely organised around a single-disease model. Thus, in addition to self-management, patients with multimorbidity face numerous different appointments with different specialists, and even with different nurses within the same practice for their annual chronic disease Quality Outcomes Framework reviews.
Expert generalist practice.
Expert generalism lies at the core of general practice and is especially relevant to the population challenges of multimorbidity outlined above. Without expert generalism to maintain the holistic and cost-effective balance of realistic care, there is a real risk that patients with multiple conditions and complex needs will face increasing levels of fragmented, burdensome, and, at times, potentially harmful care from numerous different, uncoordinated specialists. Without the expert generalism within general practice, the NHS would very quickly become unstable and financially unsustainable.
Evidence-based medicine meets practice-based evidence
Our proposal for middle-ground research is borne out of our conviction that in the rapidly changing policy landscape of health and social care, and especially in primary care, the transformation of general practice required to meet the changing needs of the population cannot happen without being informed by high-quality evaluation and research. The spiralling costs of the NHS, the crisis in the general practice workforce, and the rising needs of the population (from multimorbidity, ageing, and widening inequalities) all need effective solutions now, not 10 or 15 years hence, if universal coverage and care for all, free at the point of delivery, is to survive in the UK. This will require innovations and new ways of working, which will need to be rigorously evaluated in order to ensure effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. The urgency is such that evidence of delivery is needed more quickly than large RCTs can deliver such evidence. A single RCT in the health care system can take up to 20 years to complete, from conception to implementation.
Middle-ground research offers the production (or rather co-production) of useful evidence over a much shorter time-frame, not instead of, but in addition to large RCTs. Middle-ground research is not a philosophy, nor a single methodology, but rather a pragmatic approach to fill the ‘no-man’s land’ between RCT-based academic research and NHS innovations with little or no evaluation. The type of research and evaluation that is possible in the middle-ground will depend on many factors, and the methods required will depend on the nature of the questions that need to be answered. Some may be answered by data-driven innovation, utilising large data sets of routine general practice data. Others may require mixed-methods approaches that combine and integrate quantitative and qualitative approaches.
Our experience since proposing this middle-ground approach (Guthrie et al., 2017) suggests there is widespread support from clinicians and researchers. However, making it happen will require buy-in and commitment from policy-makers, commissioners, NHS staff and other academics. It will also require a real commitment to work together with patients and staff in a co-production model. It will also require funding from governments.
Such research requires a clear identification of what the research questions are, and crucially, whether they can be answered in a timely and efficient fashion. Thus, evaluability assessment is an important first step. It will also be important to differentiate the types of research required.
For example, some research projects will set out to help fill a gap in the available evidence (such as with multimorbidity, where very few definitive RCTs have been conducted that provide definitive evidence of ‘efficacy’) and to guide practice in a pragmatic way until definitive RCTs can be completed. Such ‘good enough’ research will aim to give a clear steer to policy-makers, managers and staff on whether a particular intervention appears to be effective and cost-effective.
Some research will consider the implementation of an intervention with a good evidence-base (perhaps RCTs conducted in a different health care setting or country) and seek to identify the barriers and facilitators of local implementation. Such implementation-focused research will identify whether an intervention has been fully implemented, and if not, what are the key barriers hindering implementation.
In both these types of research, it is also helpful to know what works, for whom, and under which circumstances, given the complexity and heterogeneity of primary care in different geographical settings across the four nations.
Getting realistic
Middle-ground research is part of a broader move within the UK and internationally to make health care more focused on the actual needs and goals of patients. In Scotland, the Chief Medical Officer’s vision for ‘Realistic medicine’ has been widely welcomed by GPs and other primary care staff (NHS Scotland, 2016). The key principles are:
Moving towards shared decision-making Building a personalised approach to care Reducing harm and waste Reducing unnecessary variation in practice and outcomes Managing risk more appropriately Becoming improvers and innovators
This vision aligns closely to the future vision for general practice and primary care. Many of these principles are shared with approaches in other nations. In Wales, ‘Prudent Healthcare’ is based on four principles:
Public and professionals are equal partners through co-production Care for those with the greatest health needs first Do only what is needed… and do no harm Reduce inappropriate variation through evidence-based approaches
The global ‘Choosing Wisely’ movement, backed by the Academy of Royal Medical Colleges in the UK, aims to encourage shared decision-making by empowering patients to discuss with their doctor what treatments are best for them and which may not be necessary.
These developments have come about due to a growing awareness of the issues of overdiagnosis and overtreatment of disease (Treadwell and McCartney, 2016). Indeed, the RCGP established the Standing Group on Overdiagnosis (Supporting Shared Decisions in Health Care) in 2014. Middle-ground studies could help to address this trend by a generalist approach to examining the harms and benefits of proposed new changes in diagnostic criteria or therapeutic approaches with marginal gains.
Again, given the ageing population and the widening chasm of health inequalities, a focus on multimorbidity (which underpins both) would seem warranted. Middle-ground research offers a vision for ‘realistic research for realistic medicine’ which will be essential if realistic medicine is to become a practical reality with impact at a general practice and population level.
KEY POINTS
The NHS is dependent on a strong generalist primary care system that is able to deal holistically with the needs of the population served The needs of the population are shaped notably by the complex challenges of patients with multimorbidity in the context of both ageing and deprivation A more realistic approach to medicine and health care is required if the NHS is to survive and thrive and meet the needs of the changing population A new kind of research which we call ‘middle-ground research’ is needed to inform realistic medicine and primary care policy and service transformation in a timely manner Middle-ground research offers the co-production of useful evidence over a much shorter time- frame than traditional RCTs Middle-ground research is not a philosophy, nor a single methodology, but rather a pragmatic approach to fill the ‘no-man’s land’ between tightly controlled RCT-based academic research and NHS innovations with no or little evaluation
