Abstract
But Rumsfeld’s comments were not as misguided as they might appear on first reading. In politics – as in war – there are things that we know that we don’t know. Nobody knows what economic growth will be in two years’ time. But that does not mean you do not plan for the future.
Far more potentially damaging are those ‘unknown unknowns’. These are the issues that nobody is even thinking about, but which could dramatically change the political landscape.
Before the 2016 referendum, Brexit was a known unknown. Now, however, the UK’s departure could open up a whole range of unknown unknowns – especially if Britain leaves without a deal.
How will British importers access European markets? What will life look like along the Irish border? How will voters react to no-deal? These are just some of the more obvious unknown unknowns. There are potentially many, many more.
In this issue’s cover feature, Andrew S. Crines looks at one of the biggest unknowns in British politics right now: who is Boris Johnson and how will he govern? Crines analyses where the new Prime Minister sits in the typology of British conservatism and finds that, like most Tory party members, Johnson tends towards a free market Thatcherite view of the world.
Already, Johnson has presented himself as very much the opposite of his predecessor Theresa May, who was often presented as grimly predictable. As May leaves office, Graham Goodlad examines the causes of her downfall – and why it took so long to reach the end-game in Downing Street.
Anand Menon takes over the regular Last Word slot to argue powerfully that while Brexit has consumed Whitehall and Westminster, British politics has ignored the frustration that contributed to the vote to leave the European Union in the first place. Over three years on from a referendum that saw many people protest about the state of their lives, virtually nothing has been done to address this discontent.
On a similar theme, Daniel Harrison, winner of the Political Studies Association’s essay prize competition in association with the Financial Times, asks how Britain’s broken politics can be fixed. The crumbling Palace of Westminster is getting a refurbishment – but what about our creaking democratic processes?
We also look back on a scandal that had a major impact on how British voters view politics and politicians: MPs’ expenses. A decade on from the second homes and duck moats, Matthew Flinders and Alexandra Anderson find that the expenses scandal has contributed to the negative perception of politics held by many.
One area of public life that has seen rising public support is the British military. In a compelling account, Paul Dixon shows how our military elite successfully blamed politicians for failure in Iraq and Afghanistan to extend their influence over policy and society.
Brexit was supposed to guarantee that the UK would not participate European Parliament elections. But after an extension to the negotiations with the EU, Britain went to the polls in May along with 27 other European states. John Curtice looks back and finds an electorate deeply divided on Brexit and a two-party system struggling to maintain its political hold.
The European Parliament elections did not see the predicted surge for anti-EU parties, but Sara Hobolt argues that the vote has ushered in a more fragmented political landscape in Europe. In the regular In Focus slot, Benjamin D. Hennig maps an election that has left big questions for the future of the European project.
Elsewhere, Rekha Diwakar reports on the future of India’s democracy, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party have become the dominant political force. Mark Bennister and Simon Obendorf analyse the recent Australian elections that saw an unexpected victory for the incumbent right-wing administration.
Finally, Thomas Loughran, Andrew Mycock, and Jon Tonge report on new research that suggests any reform of our electoral system needs to consider a number of proposals including demands for 16 and 17-year-olds to be allowed to vote.
The unknown is just about the only certainty in politics right now. If you would like to join the debates or contribute to Political Insight get in touch or visit www.psa.ac.uk/insight-plus.