Abstract
In January, Cambridge University’s Centre for the Future of Democracy published the results of a global survey of the state of democracy. It made for gloomy reading. Some 58 per cent of people are unhappy with democratic systems of government.
Discontent with democracy was particularly pronounced in two places: The United Kingdom and the United States.
In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has promised to renew democracy, primarily by ‘getting Brexit done’. At the end of January, Britain finally left the European Union, more than three and a half years after the vote to leave.
But while the Prime Minister promises to ‘heal divisions’ and ‘bring the country together’, Britain is a disunited kingdom.
In this issue’s cover feature, Maria Sobolewska and Robert Ford delve deep into Brexitland to argue that the identity conflicts mobilised by the EU referendum are here to stay. Increasingly, Britons are divided by education, age, geography and, of course, politics.
Of course, Britain has seldom looked as politically unified in recent years. In December’s general election, Johnson won a ‘stonking’ 80 seat majority, picking up Labour seats across England and Wales.
In his analysis of the election results, John Curtice finds that the Conservative victory was built on galvanising pro-Brexit voters behind the party while anti-Brexit forces were more divided than ever.
December’s election highlighted once again the tensions within the United Kingdom itself. Looking at Scotland, where the Scottish National Party made major gains, Rob Johns, Ailsa Henderson, Christopher Carman and Jac Larner argue that independence – not Brexit – remains the key political divide.
From Northern Ireland, Jon Tonge reports on an election that saw losses for the major parties – particularly the Democratic Unionists – and the growing strength of politics beyond the Orange and Green divide. In Wales, Roger Awan Scully finds that Labour’s long-held political dominance is coming under increasing strain.
So, what does this mean for the union? Is Britain about to break up? Certainly, the clamour for a ‘border poll’ on Irish unity is likely to grow, as are demands for a second Scottish independence referendum. But the future of the United Kingdom is likely to depend on its largest constituent part: England.
After an election that saw the Conservatives win a huge majority of English seats, Michael Kenny looks at the rise of Englishness in British politics and asks what it could mean for constitutional politics across these islands.
The general election was a disaster for Labour. In its aftermath, Jeremy Corbyn and others blamed the defeat on Brexit. But looking at data over the last decade, Paula Surridge finds that Labour has been squeezed by a fundamental realignment in British politics that goes well beyond Britain’s decision to leave the EU.
One thing does look certain in British politics: Johnson’s new administration has a level of control in Parliament that his minority government conspicuously lacked. What effect did the constitutional chaos of the previous two-and-a-half years have on parliamentary procedure? Brigid Fowler investigates.
And what of Brexit itself? Despite massive pro-EU marches and parliamentary pressure, the post-2016 Remain campaign failed completely. But, writes Andrew Glencross, for those who want to see Britain in the EU, all hope might not be lost.
Elsewhere, Birgit Schippers examines how the internet has transformed politics, from digital campaigning to social media. The rise of artificial intelligence poses even more profound challenges for democratic processes. Can democracy survive in the age of AI?
Elizabeth Bomberg reports from the US where Donald Trump’s administration has rolled back environmental legislation and pulled out of key international climate accords. But increasingly American voters want action on the environment.
In the regular In Focus slot, Benjamin D. Hennig looks beyond the British general election headlines to map winning margins and turnout where it matters most – in individual seats. In the Last Word, Will Jennings explains how towns became a key political battleground and asks if the Conservatives can fulfil their promise to ‘level up’ Britain.
The democratic tumult around the world is unlikely to stop anytime soon. Already, Boris Johnson’s new administration has shown a willingness to push the boundaries of precedence and accepted practice. With a presidential election due in the US in November, the political temperatures are likely to rise even further.
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