Extreme Events and Inter-state Migration in India: An Empirical Analysis

Extreme events-induced migration is a growing concern for low- and middle-income countries due to the increased variability in the weather and the rise in the number of disasters associated with climate change. The objective of this article is to examine the interlinkages between weather, disasters, and migration, in India. To examine the bi-directional flow of migrants across Indian states, we estimate gravity models with Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method following previous studies’ methodology. We find that agriculture-dependent states and states with low levels of human development are more likely to face out-migration driven by weather variations and disasters. Internal migration is seasonal, temporary and often short distance in nature. We provide statistical evidence that repeated exposure of the vulnerable population to extreme weather and disasters may ultimately lead to more permanent migration. This raises urgent questions concerning the efficacy of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation policies at the sub-national level.