Abstract
This article traces the changing patterns of women’s turnout in state assembly and Lok Sabha elections in India. The primary objective of the article is to understand why more women are turning out to vote. The article discusses the self-empowerment hypothesis, increased female literacy and deeper penetration of media as possible factors behind this recent upsurge. It also studies how greater interest in politics and relatively higher participation in campaign activities by women in recent elections are possibly related to the increased turnout. The analysis presented in the article is based on a combination of both aggregate data and survey data. The article uses empirical evidence from the National Election Studies conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies for the 2004, 2009 and the 2014 General Elections and the Census of India 2001 and 2011.
Keywords
It is widely believed that orthodox social norms in India have limited the role of women in mainstream electoral politics, restrained them from emerging as independent voters and reduced the importance of gender issues in the policy discourse. In this context, the significant rise in women’s turnout in recent state assembly elections and the recently concluded Lok Sabha election have raised a question whether traditional barriers are eroding as an increasing number of women voters are now turning out to vote and exercising their democratic rights. Even though India has consistently witnessed a higher overall turnout than most advanced democracies, the gender gap in turnout continues to remain relatively higher. Though India continues to fare poorly on gender parity as reflected in its 114th rank in the latest Global Gender Parity Report of the World Economic Forum, 3 major changes seem to be occurring in the political arena. Recent trends in women’s turnout in India indicate that the country could soon witness a gender reversal or gender parity in electoral participation (in terms of turning out to vote).
Using aggregate data from the Election Commission of India for gender-wise breakup of voters and electors over the past four decades, Mudit Kapoor and Shamika Ravi demonstrated that there has been a significant decline in the gender bias in voting in recent years. The decline could be attributed to higher participation rate of women as the change in the gender ratio of voters is higher than the change in the gender ratio of the electors. An intriguing dimension of this emerging story is that the change has been sharp in most of the backward states which tend to have low gender parity on various social and economic indicators (Kapoor & Ravi, 2014). Considering how the increase in women’s turnout impacts the overall turnout and the larger process of democratization, it becomes crucial to dissect this change and understand factors behind it. The objective of this article is to move beyond recent work on women’s turnout in India by discussing why these changes are taking place. We wish to understand why more women are turning out to vote and identify possible factors behind this recent upsurge. We would like to see whether there are specific contemporary factors that are leading to these changes or they should be looked at in the context of larger sociological changes taking place in most parts of the country. Our analysis shall be based on a combination of aggregate data from various government sources; survey data from the National Election Studies conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies for the 2004, 2009 and the 2014 General Elections; and data from the Census of India 2001 and 2011.
Recent Upsurge in Participation of Women
There has been a decrease in the gender gap and an increase in women’s turnout in both national and state elections. In the Lok Sabha elections, the gap has become almost negligible. The gap has decreased substantially from around 17 percentage points in 1957 to less than 2 percentage points in 2014. After a period of stagnation from 1984 to 2004, there has been a sharp decline in the gap in the last two general elections falling from 8 percentage points in 1999 to 4.4 in 2009 and dropping below 2 percentage points during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections (Figure 1). Many states have recorded an all-time-high women’s turnout and the lowest ever gender gap in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections.
At the state level, we analyzed aggregate data released by the Election Commission of India for all state assembly elections from 1990 onwards. At the broad aggregate level, we see that there has been a sharp decline from 2002 onwards. While the gender gap was almost constant in the first four trienniums (1990–2001), it started declining from 2002 onwards. In fact in the last triennium (2011–2013), the gap was positive as the turnout among women marginally exceeded the turnout among men (Figure 2).
A contraction of the gender gap should be looked at with a certain degree of caution as it can take place under three scenarios: first, sharper fall in men’s turnout as compared to women’s turnout; second, rise in women’s turnout, which is greater than the rise in men’s turnout; and third, fall in men’s turnout and an increase in women’s turnout. Based on the magnitude of the gender gap in the early years in the period under analysis (1990 onwards), we classified the states into three categories: high, moderate and low gender gap (Table 1). Interestingly there is a broader regional pattern that emerges in this classification, while the first group has the Bimaru 4 states of north India along with Odisha and Gujarat, the second primarily has all south Indian states except Kerala and the third mostly has the eastern states. The gender gap remained almost constant in all three groups during the first two periods but came down substantially in states with a high gap during the period 2002–2007. In the latest period, the gap has reduced in all the three categories of states, but the sharpest decline took place in the high-gap states owing to the low base and scope for improvement. Table 2 specifies how men and women’s turnout has changed over the years in the three groups of states formulated by us. The average men and women’s turnout seems to be higher in states with a lower gender gap. While the decline in the gender gap in the third period (2002–2007) in Category 1 states could be attributed to a fall in men’s turnout, the decline in the latest period has been due to a relatively higher rise in women’s turnout in all three categories. It is interesting to see that there is no uniform trend across all states. In some states the change in gender gap has taken place without any substantial increase in women’s turnout. In the first group, for example, there has been a substantial increase in women’s turnout in all states except Bihar. Although the 2010 election in Bihar is often cited as an instance of substantial contraction of the gender gap, the decrease in the gap was primarily due to a fall in men’s turnout. Women’s turnout in the 2010 election (52.7 per cent) was almost equal to the average in the state from 1990 onwards (52.3 per cent) while men’s turnout was 51 per cent, much lower than the post-1990 average of 61.1 per cent. In the second group, women’s turnout increased as compared to earlier years in around two-third of the states, but in the third category it has declined or remained constant in most states as it has reached the threshold levels. Thus, we can see that the main increase in women’s turnout is coming from the relatively poor and socially backward states. The regional epicentre of this surge in women participation is the Hindi heartland, and the magnitude of the increase is such that there would definitely be factors other than the low base. The intriguing aspect of the story is that all these states except Gujarat rank low on the Human Development Index for Indian states. Even Gujarat despite its relatively higher per capita income has a moderate Human Development Index (HDI) score.
Difference in Gender Gap in Turnout in Different States: Assembly Elections 1990–2013
Declining Gender Gap in Turnout in Different Kinds of States: Assembly Elections 1990–2013
The aggregate analysis above clearly delineates this emerging trend in turnout among women in India. Many social scientists and political commentators have attempted to examine the broader implications of this rise in women’s turnout. Often larger sociological and demographic changes lie behind trends and patterns in aggregate data. We believe that this rise in women’s turnout, particularly in states that have traditionally lagged behind in various social indicators and measures of gender parity, cannot be explained through a single factor. Rather than one factor playing across the country, there seems to be an interplay of multiple factors. We identify a set of possible factors and try to understand their role in causing this upsurge in turnout among women.
The ‘Self-empowerment’ Argument
The self-empowerment argument is based on the belief that more women are voluntarily turning out to exercise their right to vote (Kapoor & Ravi, 2014). This could possibly be due to greater self-consciousness and deeper understanding of political issues. There is a common belief that a large proportion of women do not have independence to participate in public life, and many women, both as voters and representatives, participate as proxies of male family members. In an interview former union minister and chief minister of Bihar, Lalu Prasad Yadav, had dismissed the political relevance of increased women’s turnout as he felt that they simply vote for whoever men tell them to vote for (Mishra, 2010). At the outset it must be understood that a substantial proportion of voters take into account the opinion of others before deciding whom to vote for. Deciding whom to vote for is not always a solitary decision as voters discuss politics with family members, friends, colleagues, local elites and so on. Data from national surveys of cross-section of voters have consistently shown that more than 40 per cent of the voters accepted that they did not decide entirely on their own and the opinion of others mattered while making up their mind. Still one must note that there is a gender gap in the proportion of voters who voted independently. While more than two-thirds of male respondents claimed to have decided without taking anybody else’s opinion, the proportion was much lower among women, at around a little more than half (Table 3).
Proportion of Voters Who Voted on Their Own, without Anybody Else’s Opinion: Lok Sabha Elections 2004–2014
Even among those who took others’ opinion while deciding whom to vote for, there is a gender difference in terms of whose opinion mattered most. Men tend to interact with a broader group of people, as more than half of them who did not vote on their own consulted individuals outside their immediate household—friends, colleagues, caste leaders and local leaders. On the other hand, for more than two-thirds of women who did not vote entirely on their own, the opinion of their husbands or other family members mattered most (Table 4). An individual who interacts with a wider range of people and discusses politics outside the household would be considered to have a relatively higher degree of political socialization as compared to someone who just interacts with people within his or her household. Also it is a realistic assumption to make that in a discussion on politics within the household; an average woman, especially daughters-in-law and unmarried daughters, would have the least say.
Whom Do Voters Normally Consult While Voting: Lok Sabha Elections 2009–2014
The self-empowerment hypothesis would explain higher women’s turnout as a result of greater degree of socialization among women as compared to earlier and independent decision-making with lesser influence of other family members. We analyze survey data from the National Election Studies 2009 and 2014 for eight states which have seen a significant fall in the gender gap due to an increase in women’s turnout. These states were mostly the low-income states of the country—the Bimaru states, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha. In four of these states—Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Assam and Chhattisgarh—there was a sizeable increase in the proportion of women who voted without taking anybody else’s opinion. In other states, the proportion has either remained constant or in fact decreased (Table 5).
State-wise Analysis of Proportion of Voters Who Voted without Taking Anybody Else’s Opinion
It would be premature to accept or reject the self-empowerment hypothesis as a factor behind increasing women’s turnout based on mixed evidence for changes in the proportion of women voting on their own. One must look at other dimensions of the concept before drawing a larger conclusion. We tried to see whether there is any divergence in the issues that men and women consider important while voting.
Table 6 shows that there is no significant difference based on gender in the most important issue while voting. The most important issue has been the same for both men and women—drinking water in 2009 and price rise in 2014. On the other hand, corruption and unemployment seem to be more important for men as compared to women. This could simply be attributed to greater awareness and higher labour force participation among men. Women issues and crime against women are the most important issue for less than 3 per cent of women voters and less than 1 per cent of men voters.
Gender-wise Opinion on Issues Which Influenced Voting Decision: Lok Sabha Elections 2009–2014
If the self-empowerment hypothesis is valid and the increase in women’s turnout is a result of women emerging as a separate political constituency then one would also expect the advent of gender voting. Research on gender voting in India has primarily demonstrated the existence of a gender gap in the support base of the principal national parties—the BJP and the Congress. The Congress has traditionally been known to have a gender advantage; that is proportion of votes among women has exceeded the proportion among men (Yadav, 2003). This difference for the Congress has narrowed in recent elections, as the party received almost the same proportion of vote among both genders. The BJP, on the other hand, has been known to have a gender disadvantage as more men are likely to vote for the party as compared to women (Deshpande, 2009).
Rajeshwari Deshpande in her analysis of voting behaviour in the 2009 general election showed that gender was not a major social cleavage determining voting patterns and women do not always vote as gendered beings (Deshpande, 2009). This can be seen through our data also, as the gaps for both parties are marginal if compared to gaps based on social identities like caste, religion and class (Figure 3).
Socio-economic Development
It is possible that relatively lower access to information and knowledge necessary for participation and restrictions on participating in activities outside the household sphere has been responsible for lower turnout among women. It can be argued that as a result of rise in the literacy rate among women and the rapid spread of information (a natural consequence of the development process post-liberalization), there has been a moderation of patriarchal norms and an improvement in the position of women in households. This has made it possible for a larger number of women to move out and participate in public activities. It is possible to relate turnout with literacy as women who are illiterate might have relatively less information about the significance of political participation (Giné & Mansuri, 2011). Globally there is mixed evidence for the relationship between education and turnout. A few studies in America have shown how the level of education affects turnout by raising the political skill level of voters and lowering their cost of voting. Fornos, Power and Garand (2004) used pooled data from Presidential and Legislative elections in Latin American countries and showed that there was an insignificant relationship between literacy and voter turnout.
Table 7 shows the relationship between education and women’s turnout, which has been relatively lower among non-literate women in both 2009 and 2014. There seems to be a sharp difference in the turnout if one compares the middle and lower category. Basic education is adequate for increasing political participation as it provides an individual with the required degree of political awareness and information. A lot should not be read into the lower turnout among highly educated women, as it could simply be a reflection of the class effect as turnout has traditionally been lower among upper class across gender. Having demonstrated a relationship between education/literacy and the probability of turning out to vote, we now try to match improvements in educational attainment of women voters with the rise in women’s turnout in various states.
Level of Educational Attainment of Women Voters and Turnout: Lok Sabha Elections 2009–2014 (in Percentage)
Analyzing data from the 2001 and 2011 Census of India, we found that in Category 1 states (states with higher gender gap in turnout); no clear relationship exists between changes in women’s turnout and literacy. Improvement in women literacy was considerably higher than the national average only in Uttar Pradesh and Odisha. While Gujarat performed at par with the national average, improvement in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh was slightly lower. Except Tripura, in all Category 2 states, the improvement in literacy was lower than the national average. Low improvement in Tamil Nadu and Delhi is not surprising as these states had limited scope due to their high base. An interesting observation is that there has been no major long-term increase in women’s turnout in Bihar, which has recorded very high improvement in the literacy rate among women (Table 8). Still we cannot deny that there has indeed been a substantial increase in the literacy rate among women in the past decade. Thus, it would be wrong to completely disregard literacy as a factor in changing patriarchal norms and facilitating higher turnout among women.
State-wise Pattern of Increased Literacy Rate among Women and Declining Gender Gap in Literacy
Alongside the increase in literacy, the past decade has also witnessed a rapid technological progress which has led to a major increase in media exposure in the country. Newspapers, television and the radio are sources of information for people across the country. Media plays an important role in inducing political participation by generating awareness about rights and issues. It also aids various civil society organizations and the Election Commission of India who use it as a platform for their voter awareness campaigns. Similar to education, there seems to be a sharp difference if one compares turnout among women without exposure to media with those with limited exposure (Table 9). The exposure to media has been estimated based on the frequency with which they follow news through the three main sources: television, newspaper and radio. Comparing data from the 2011 Census with the previous round shows that there has been an increase of TV ownership from 32 per cent in 2001 to more than 47 per cent. Data from the National Election Studies show that there has been a massive upsurge in media exposure in the past half decade. Table 10 shows the proportion of voters who had no exposure or very low exposure to media. It is quite evident that there has been an overall increase in the exposure to media and now more than half the electorate seems to be following news through television, newspapers and/or radio with different frequency. In the past half decade there has been a massive increase in media exposure among both men and women and the proportion of women with very low or no media exposure has dropped sharply from 65 per cent in 2009 to 39 per cent in 2014. The trend continues state-wise as well; except Assam, all states that have recorded a high increase in women’s turnout in 2014 general election and a contraction of the gender gap have seen a massive upsurge in media exposure. Table 11 shows that in most of the low-income states except Assam and Rajasthan there was a huge rise in media exposure among women.
Level of Media Exposure and Turnout among Women Voters: Lok Sabha Elections 2009–2014
Declining Proportion of Voters (Men and Women) Not Exposed to Media (in Percentage): Lok Sabha Elections 2004–2014
State-wise Analysis of Change in Level of Media Exposure and Gender Gap on Voting: Lok Sabha Elections 2009–2014
Participation of Women in Election-Related Activities 2009–2014
Interest in Politics and Participation in Campaign
Another factor which could contribute to higher turnout among women voter is greater interest in politics and participation in election-related activities. Rai (2011) had identified interest in politics and belief in the efficacy of one’s vote as possible factors determining electoral participation among women voters in India. It is possible that being involved in the electoral campaign could induce voters to vote in bigger numbers on the polling day. Participation in the campaign could be as a campaigner, a participant/attendee or both. While the proportion of women who participated in processions and took part in door-to-door canvassing has remained almost constant, there has been a sharp increase in attending election meetings. The proportion of women who attended election meetings has increased from less than one-tenth (9 per cent) in 2009 to 15 per cent during the 2014 Lok Sabha election (Table 12). Relatively higher participation in the campaign in this election among women could be a factor behind higher turnout among them.
There are some other factors like increased representation for women in state legislatures and local bodies and efforts made by the Election Commission of India which could have played a role in increasing women’s turnout. We shall not be discussing them due to the absence of any empirical data for estimating their impact.
Conclusion
This article adds on to the ongoing discussion on rising women’s turnout in India by laying out some possible dimensions of the story. The hypotheses presented in this article get only partial support from data. One can safely presume that a clearer reasoning for this upsurge depends heavily on the stability of this trend. The stability would probably determine whether this has indeed been a culmination of larger socio-economic changes which have taken place in the past decade. This emerging trend opens multiple possibilities for research on political participation among women in India as higher women’s turnout not only has an intrinsic value but also generates certain positive externalities. Overcoming the gender gap is indeed a landmark moment in the democratization process in any country. If the gap continues to remain low and differences in the quantum of change in men’s and women’s turnout are eliminated in most states, India would join a group of established democracies like some of the Nordic countries (Seppälä, 2004), United States of America and Britain (Norris, 2002) which had managed a gender reversal in electoral participation (in terms of turning out to vote) more than three decades ago.