Abstract
A large electoral quake shook most parts of India in 2014. An electoral quake of a similar magnitude followed in 2019. Those who are engaged in the study of Indian politics are naturally interested in knowing the reasons for the tectonic shift that caused these quakes, their focus and epicentre, and their consequences to the political terrain. Studies in Indian Politics brought out a special issue with a set of articles that sought to explain the outcome of the 2014 Lok Sabha election (3.1, June 2015). Now we are placing before you this special issue on the 2019 election.
In 2014, the appeal of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), then in opposition, was Ab ki bar, Modi Sarkar (This time around, a Modi government). Its appeal in 2019, now as the ruling party, sounded similar to the one before: Phir ek bar, Modi sarkar (One more time, Modi government). In the run up to the election and during the campaign period, there was a hope of victory and a fear of defeat in almost all political parties. When the votes were counted, the Modi-led BJP not only merely secured a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha, but it even surpassed its 2014 performance in terms of votes, seats and geographical coverage. The 2019 result made it clear that the 2014 result was not a one-time event whose tremors would not be felt in 2019. The result of 2019 election is akin to the one in 2014, causing much destruction and damage: tossed several leaders around, buried a few parties under the debris, decimated some and crippled many.
The collection of articles in the special issue probe the fault lines beneath the political surface that led to this election result (Suri), as well as the cracks and slips that we see on the surface. They look at the intersections of caste and class and which one mattered more this time (Jaffrelot), how the religious divide played out among the electorate (Sardesai), how the BJP’s vote base got ruralized (Maiorano), how leadership (Shastri) and welfare benefits made a difference (Deshpande, Tillin and Kailash), how business persons gained preponderance in the election process and the national legislature (Sinha-Wyatt), and how the party alliances worked (Ziegfeld) and the party system looked like at the end of the election (Chibber-Verma). These articles enable us to make some sense of the rapid reconfiguration of the Indian polity indicating its fluidity, its causes and likely consequences, and the emergent political scape of India.
Our section editors for the two sections, Teaching-Learning Politics in India and Notes on Methods, have written notes on conducting Election studies and teaching courses related to electoral behaviour in Indian universities (Deshpande) and on the issues involved in framing survey questions (Vaid). The statistical appendix at the end, prepared by Himanshu Bhattacharya of CSDS Data Unit, gives a numerical account of the election result in its different aspects. The Review Essay by Rajkamal Singh and Garima Goel provides the context by discussing works that analysed BJP’s 2014 victory.
We thank all the colleagues, in India and abroad, who have contributed to this special issue in spite of the short time available to them after the election results were announced at the end of May 2019.