Book review: Paul Wallace (Ed.),India’s 2019 Elections: The Hindutva Wave and Indian Nationalism

The book is an elaborate effort at deciphering India’s Lok Sabha elections 2019. It attempts both—an overview of the themes shaping the elections and the analytical study of the results for most of the states in the country. It brings together prominent scholars from the field of Indian Political Processes and its Institutions, Party Politics and State Politics in India. They combine quantitative and qualitative research techniques, utilizing a rich reservoir of empirical data to sharpen their analyses. However, some chapters could have delved deeper into the sociopolitical and economic factors that shaped the verdict.

This book, the sixth in a series that has been examining India’s parliamentary elections since 1998, seeks to analyse how the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a massive victory in the 17th Lok Sabha Election 2019, despite strong public outrage against its government for causing socioeconomic distress. The late Paul Wallace and the late Ramashray Roy co-edited the first four volumes on Indian elections from 1998 to 2009. Wallace edited the volume on the election of 2014. The book is divided into two parts—‘Thematic Studies’ and ‘Analytical State Studies’, with contributions by 29 distinguished scholars and policy experts. The first part covers six topics—instrumentality of foreign policy issues, BJP’s growing clout, gender concerns, vitality of public institutions and civil society, and ‘fake news’—of course, many more themes shaped the electoral discourse. The second part analyses election results for India’s 14 states and its Northeast region. Here, the chapters are grouped under regional clusters, in a pattern previously seen in the volume on the 2014 election—Northern, Kashmir and Western, Eastern and Southern, and North-east. Back then, the arrangement reflected ‘the change to India’s political geography brought by BJP after the elections’ (India’s 2014 Elections, p. 25); its continuity affirms that the changes have held steady in 2019.

A common refrain of observers during the election was that the Balakot airstrike was used as an immediate rallying point by BJP to sharpen fervour for its Hindutva narrative in the name of nationalist pride. In his introduction, Paul Wallace agrees and observes that this surge of muscular Hindu nationalism, together with a ‘presidential-plebiscitarian’ campaign emphasizing ‘There is No Alternative’ to Narendra Modi from amongst the dynastic and bickering opposition, facilitated the BJP’s expansion into new territories and social groups. However, Wallace overlooks another important dimension of Hindutva under which the BJP operated. To reinforce a united homogenous Hindu identity transcending sociocultural, political and economic cleavages, the ideology has also been galvanizing an anti-dominant caste politics. The BJP has been widening its appeal among neglected communities within other backward classes (OBCs), scheduled tribes (STs) and to a lesser extent scheduled castes (SCs), pulling them into an implicit electoral coalition with the upper castes (as evident in part 2 state studies). Also overlooked is another crucial theme: the growing interconnectedness between Hindutva and populism in PM Modi’s politics that is making the outreach happen.

Walter Andersen’s chapter exploring BJP’s strategies for consolidating power does allude to the government’s populist tactics in a discussion on electoral benefits of the poverty alleviation and social welfare schemes for the poor (p. 27), but only briefly. It does not receive the same attention as the other factors, be it Amit Shah’s control over the organization, ‘Brand Modi’, or the RSS’s micromanagement.

The chapter by Former Chief Election Commissioner S.Y. Quraishi evaluates the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) conduct in the election period. Well aware of the limits to the institution’s powers, he objectively addresses criticism against it. His caution against electoral bonds ‘legalising crony capitalism’ should prompt experts/activists to examine that issue; Quraishi should have shed light on the ECI’s position on this too.

Rainuka Dagar’s chapter brings a fresh perspective to the discourse on electoral politics and gender rights. She compares the women-centric narratives employed by Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi and Mamta Banerjee, to conclude that while these leaders incorporated women’s concerns into their mainstream campaign, none challenged the patriarchal norms. One misses a discussion of Biju Patnaik, since he targeted women voters throughout his campaign, starting by announcing 33% reservations in Lok Sabha seats for his party’s women.

The chapter by Jyotirindra Dasgupta and Anshu Chatterjee expounds on the failures of public institutions and civil organizations in holding the government accountable, but it does not explore the media’s failure to serve as the watchdog of India’s democracy. Pallava Bedi and Devika Malik’s chapter on fake news trends in India lacks clarity in its objective and structure, and adequate citations and references of the reports they rely upon are not provided. This part of the book is missing pertinent themes, for example, an examination of the debilitating status of Congress and the onset of changes to India’s political structure; or the economic–sociopolitical reasons why the youth, specifically, continues to hold faith in Modi’s leadership.

In the second part of the book, the chapter authors integrate a range of qualitative research methods with statistical techniques in their study of election results of states. If some studies simply enumerate election data, others build strong empirical evidence to corroborate their arguments. Most of the state chapters have been authored by scholars with years of experience in research on the politics of that particular state, which they refer to during the study. However, there are chapters, including a few by those pursuing the study of a particular state’s politics for the first time, that depend heavily on secondary news sources and poll-data analyses, extensively quoting from them, to the extent of borrowing their arguments.

Some studies are limited in their consideration of regional peculiarities. For example, the chapter on Madhya Pradesh largely discusses the pre-eminence of the nation-wide popular narrative of muscular Hindu nationalism, without thoroughly analysing state-specific factors that drove it. Though the RSS’s role in ‘making a difference’ is recognized, the authors do not elaborate on the organization’s efforts to reach out to significant social groups – for example, STs that had avoided the BJP during the assembly elections 2018. The discussion of the Congress’ defeat is restricted to an overview of farmers’ disgruntlement with the state government, while only mentioning that Congress has lost support amongst STs, SCs and OBCs over the years. The study of Odisha solely focuses on the battle between the personalities of Naveen Patnaik and Narendra Modi during the simultaneously held state and national election. It does not evaluate the extent of impact on the results made by the state RSS and regional BJP leadership and the cadre. Conversely, it does not indicate regional compulsions that confined BJP’s fortunes to eight Lok Sabha seats even as Modi was the popular choice for Prime Minister. We are informed that ‘OBCS, SCs and STs constitute 90% of Odisha’s population’, but find no mention of the issues affecting them as a social group or their political party preferences.

This is a recurring issue in many state studies. They either lack empirical data of the social demographic composition of the states, their voting inclinations or do not sufficiently assess their bearing on the state’s electoral politics. In Tamil Nadu, caste is as much an important factor influencing its politics as is Dravidian identity. Yet, there is not any information of the different caste communities, how they voted or how the caste equations were reflected through electoral alliances forged by the main parties with regional caste-based parties. Knowing who voted in Telangana for the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and BJP would have helped ascertain what part communalization of politics played in the elections vis-à-vis the populist politics pursued by TRS. The appraisal of the Northeast region’s political dynamics leaves out relevant information—the number of Lok Sabha seats of its states; the nature of political parties and alliances formed, and their electoral performances; as well as the causes of contestations between the different tribes. In the chapter analysing the state of Jammu & Kashmir, the Ladakh region has been entirely neglected.

The studies also suffer from occasional information gaps. These do not hamper the flow of analyses, but certainly could’ve enhanced them. For example, the AIADMK’s victory in nine by-election seats when it suffered defeat in the simultaneously held General Elections warrants the questions—which seats, how this was managed and what was the party’s general election performance in these assembly seats. For Assam, the BJP’s first ever victory in Muslim-populated Karimganj should have been analysed along with reasons for the BJP’s past victories in the Muslim-dominated constituency of Nowgong (p. 353).

Legislative assembly elections for many states preceded the general election or occurred alongside, so it is logical to compare their outcomes. However, some studies have dedicated too much time to that. For example, there is excessive coverage of the tumultuous post-state assembly election period in Karnataka. Most of the analysis of J&K is focused on its state assembly election results. Of the nine data tabulations, only four concern Lok Sabha results. Data analysis of Lok Sabha results in J&K districts based on Hindu and Muslim majority population could’ve been taken up, as done for assembly elections in Jammu (Tables 10.8 and 10.9). The authors provide a lengthy explanation for the revocation of J&K’s special status in August 2019, which is not relevant to the study of 2019 elections in the state.

Barring Gujarat, none of the studies take into account the electoral outcome of BJP government’s decision to constitutionalize EWS reservation. Only the chapter on Uttar Pradesh answers the question of was there a Modi wave this time? Whilst agreeing that the state’s election was constructed almost exclusively around Modi’s image, the authors argue that it does not qualify as a wave (p. 129; endnote no. 23, p. 136).

There are innumerable editing mistakes throughout the volume. These include grammatical errors, such as misspelling Valerian Rodrigues (endnote no. 33, p. 312, Karnataka); table numbers not being cited when its data are being examined (p. 301, Karnataka; p. 186, J&K); state results not being made available right at the beginning; incomplete title and link to the cited news source (endnote nos. 4 and 6, p. 296, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh). In addition, the volume’s Introduction confuses when it mentions that the election results culminated after three phases without elaborating on it, or informing that the overall elections took place in seven phases. Phases is also misspelled (p. 1). There is also the matter of quoting facts incorrectly. In the J&K’s chapter, data referred to in the analysis do not add up to that given in the tables in many instances.

The volume could have included chapters on Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, to draw parallels with Madhya Pradesh, since the three exhibited identical trends in overturning Congress’s assembly winnings in 2018, favouring the BJP in parliamentary elections a year later. Nonetheless, the book makes for a compelling read. The chapters on Punjab and Kerala make noteworthy efforts to delve into the distinct sociopolitical culture, political geography and electoral histories of these states, revealing why they remained autonomous from the ‘national electoral wave’. A comparative analytical framework is applied for studying Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. The studies of Assam and of Maharashtra lean towards explaining the verdict at the intrastate level, paving way for this approach in the future. Notwithstanding the errors, the strength of the book lies in the thoroughness of the research on the state results, along with being a rich reservoir of empirical information. This makes it an essential resource for scholars interested in state politics in India.