Self-Control and Belief in Conspiracy Theories

Abstract

Belief in conspiracy theories—such as belief that the earth is flat or that 5G networks cause cancer—is relatively prominent in the United States. While emerging research has tied self-control to some patterns of deviant beliefs, such as belief in the paranormal, the extent to which self-control theory explains belief in conspiracy theories remains elusive. Given the breadth of belief in conspiracy theories, as well as the explanatory power of self-control theory for deviant behaviors more generally, this limitation is surprising. Using a sample of 1,231 college students, we examine the link between self-control and conspiracy beliefs. Results show that self-control is a significant indicator of belief in conspiracy theories, even after controlling for key correlates of belief. Overall, findings suggest that characteristics of low self-control promote higher endorsement of conspiracy beliefs.

Keywords

conspiracy beliefs self-control theory deviance

Introduction

Conspiracy theories—defined as “attempts to explain the ultimate causes of significant social and political events and circumstances with claims of secret plots” (Douglas et al. 2019:4)—enjoy a prominent place in American society. For example, Oliver and Wood (2014) found that 37% of respondents reported that the Food and Drug Administration suppresses cures for cancer, and 26% reported belief that Barack Obama was not born in the United States. A 2019 survey found that 19% of people believed chemtrails are used by the government to control the population (Statistica 2021), and a 2020 study found that about 25% of individuals believe that powerful people planned the coronavirus outbreak (Schaeffer 2020).

Belief in conspiracies has been empirically linked to other forms of deviant behavior. For instance, conspiracy beliefs have been associated with political extremism and violence (Imhoff, Dieterle, and Lamberty 2021), extremist intentions (Rottweiler and Gill 2022), general norm violations (Pummerer et al. 2022), and even murder (Hernandez 2021). As a result, it is theoretically possible that what underlies these patterns of deviant behaviors is a larger construct: low self-control (Gottfredson and Hirschi 1990). As a general theory of deviance, self-control theory asserts that deviant behavior is an outcome of low self-control (Gottfredson and Hirschi 1990). Although scholars have tied self-control to deviant behaviors (behaviors that violate a social norm, Goode 2015; see Resig and Pratt 2011), comparatively fewer studies have applied self-control theory to understand deviant beliefs. This limitation was recently noted in a study linking low self-control to belief in the paranormal as Mowen, Heitkamp, andBoman (2022:9) reflected that “Additional research should examine the link between self-control and other forms of beliefs…” Much like belief in the paranormal, the self-centeredness and limited intellectual discipline associated with low self-control may lead to increased conspiracy endorsement.

Although not a generalizable study given the sample (1,231 students enrolled in a mid-sized university in the Midwest United States), the goal of this brief empirical piece is to examine correlates of belief in conspiracy theories with attention to self-control (Gottfredson and Hirschi 1990).

Research on Conspiracy Theories

As noted above, conspiracy theories involve explanations for significant social and political events with claims of secret plots (Douglas et al. 2019). Although conspiracy beliefs are studied by a broad range of scholars, we draw from the social-psychological literature which defines conspiracy theories as a means to make sense of unjust or complicated life experiences (Douglas et al. 2019). Some theories understand conspiracy beliefs as a result of individual characteristics, suggesting that certain personality traits increase the odds of endorsement (Kay 2021; Simmons and Parsons 2005; Swami et al. 2013). Other studies suggest that belief in conspiracy theories are related to the need for cognitive closure (Marchlewska, Cichocka, and Kossowska 2017) or the desire to feel unique (Imhoff and Lamberty 2017). Missing from this literature is an understanding of how conspiracy beliefs are related to levels of self-control, which we turn to now.

Conspiracy Theories and Self-Control

Gottfredson and Hirschi’s (1990) theory of self-control posits that deviance is a result of low self-control. Overall, low self-control is characterized by prioritizing instant gratification coupled with an inability to consider longer-term consequences of behavior (Gottfredson and Hirschi 1990). Although studies have applied the theory of self-control to deviance (see Vazsonyi, Mikuska, and Kelley 2017 for a thorough review), we draw from research examining the association between low self-control and paranormal beliefs to situate this study.

A recent study showed a strong relationship between self-control and paranormal beliefs (e.g., belief in ghosts, aliens, bigfoot, Mowen et al. 2022). Findings from this study revealed that individuals with low self-control were far more likely to believe in the paranormal than those with high self-control, net a number of related controls. The authors explained that belief in the paranormal reflects a decision-making process that prefers unscientific explanations for social events that require a great deal of critical thinking. In the case of the current study, low self-control may inhibit complex intellectual engagement with social issues and promote a belief in alternative narratives (e.g., conspiracy beliefs), thus raising attention to the goals of the current study.

Current Study

Drawing from emerging research linking self-control theory to paranormal beliefs (Mowen et al. 2022), we hypothesize that individuals with low self-control will report greater belief in conspiracy theories than individuals with higher levels of self-control.

Methods

Data

Data come from a convenience sample of college students from a mid-sized university in the Midwestern U.S. Data collection occurred in the spring of 2022. Overall, 1,748 students started the survey and 1,230 completed the survey. Although this represents around 6% of the student body, a recent study showed how surveys with low response rates (between 5 and 10 percent) allow for reliable estimates “provided the sampling frame included at least 500 students” (Fosnacht et al. 2017:258). Although female students responded to the survey in greater proportions than male students, the demographic characteristics of students who responded to the survey largely mirror the composition of the student body.

Dependent Variable: Belief in Conspiracy Theories

To construct a measure of conspiracy beliefs that captures a wide range of theories, we drew from a variety of commonly supported beliefs as well as prior literature (Bodner et al. 2020; Tingley and Wagner 2017; Uscinski and Parent 2014). The 9-item measure of conspiracy theories include belief that: 1) the earth is a flat disc (flat earth theory); 2) the Denver airport is the headquarters for the New World Order; 3) there is a secret society made up of powerful people called the Illuminati; 4) the government is spreading toxic chemicals through airplanes (known as chemtrails); 5) that scientists have fully or partially exaggerated the effects of global warming; 6) that 9/11 was an inside job; 7) the powerful elites are running a child sex-trafficking ring; 8) that human existence is a simulation; and, 9) the waves emitted from 5G networks are dangerous to our health. Responses were measured on a Likert-style response scale (1 = strongly disagree, 5 = strongly agree). The alpha (0.83) among the items indicated high levels of inter-item reliability. Items were summed together and averaged to create an average scale of conspiracy beliefs ranging from 1 (no conspiracy belief) to 5 (a great deal of conspiracy belief). Descriptive statistics for this measure and all other measures used in the analysis are listed in Table 1.

Table 1.

Descriptive Statistics of the Sample (n = 1,231).

Variable	Mean	Std Dev.	Minimum	Maximum
Conspiracy beliefs	2.189	0.788	1	5
Self-control	41.077	7.552	12	60
Need for cognitive closure	25.682	5.251	7	35
Social loner	14.673	4.387	6	30
Political orientation
Very conservative	0.040	0.196	0	1
Somewhat conservation	0.094	0.029	0	1
Moderate	0.420	0.494	0	1
Somewhat liberal	0.243	0.429	0	1
Very liberal	0.204	0.403	0	1
Race/Ethnicity
White	0.884	0.321	0	1
Non-White	0.602	0.490	0	1
Gender
Male	0.398	0.490	0	1
Female	0.602	0.490	0	1
Sexual orientation
Heterosexual	0.661	0.474	0	1
Non-heterosexual	0.339	0.474	0	1
Age	4.262	2.147	1	7
Social class	2.893	1.527	1	5
Grade-point average (GPA)	4.137	0.649	1	5

Focal Independent Variable: Self-Control

Drawing from Gibson and Wright (2001), we used a 12-item measure of self-control including: 1) I look out for myself before others; 2) It’s hard for me to talk calmly when I’m upset; 3) I’m more concerned with what happens to me in the short-term versus what happens in the long-term; 4) If the things I do upset people, it’s their fault, not mine; 5) I lose my temper easily; 6) When I’m really angry, other people better stay away from me; 7) Sometimes I take the risk just for the fun of it; 8) Excitement and adventure are more important to me than security; 9) I often act in the spur of the moment without stopping to think; 10) I like to test myself every now and then by doing something a little risky; 11) I often do whatever brings me pleasure here and now, even at the cost of some distant goal; and 12) I will try and get things that I want, even when I know that it’s causing problems for other people. Items were summed together with higher scores indicating higher levels of self-control. The mean self-control level for the sample was 41.1 with a standard deviation of 7.5 (alpha = .77).

Conspiracy Controls

Research on conspiracy theories points to the psychological trait of the need for cognitive closure as a key indicator of conspiracist belief (Webster and Kruglanski 1994). To account for this, we drew from a reduced scale of the need for cognitive closure (see Houghton and Grewal 2000). The minimum score was 7 (indicating low need for cognitive closure) and the maximum score was 35 (mean = 25.7, standard deviation = 5.3; alpha = 0.83).

Prior research on conspiracy theories has shown that individuals sometimes adopt these views due to social isolation (Terenzi et al. 2022). We account for this by including questions that asked: I have a lot of friends, 2) Other people consider me popular, 3) I am happy with my social life, 4) People tend to have a positive impression of me, 5) I am socially awkward (reverse coded), and 6) I am happy with my romantic life. Answers ranged from 6 (indicating a great deal of social connections and friendships) to 30 (indicating the individual is a “social loner”; mean = 14.7, standard deviation = 4.4; alpha = .71).

To capture political affiliation, we asked respondents to place themselves on a scale ranging from strongly conservative to strongly liberal. Results revealed 3.98% of the sample reported being very conservative, 9.44% reported being somewhat conservative, 41.97% reported being moderate, 24.26% reported being somewhat liberal, and 20.36% reported being very liberal.

Demographic and Contextual Control Variables

The analysis also accounts for demographic and situational characteristics. Gender was measured as a binary measure with the sample comprised of 39.8% males and 60.2% females. Race was measured as a series of binary variables including non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, Asian-American, Native American, multiracial, or other. Of the sample, 88.4% of students identified as White. Sexual orientation was dummy coded using heterosexual (66.1%) versus other sexuality (33.9%). Age was an ordinal variable measured as 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, or 24 years and older. The mean of this measure was 4.2 (standard deviation = 2.1) indicating that respondents were 21 years old on average. Respondents were asked about their social class (1 = working class, 2 = lower-middle class, 3 = middle class, 4 = upper-middle class, 5 = upper class) with an overall mean of 2.8 (standard deviation = 1.5) indicating that most respondents reported being around middle class. Finally, academic performance was controlled for using grade-point average (GPA; 5 = 4.0, 4 = 3.0–3.99, 3 = 2.0–2.99, 2 = 1.0–1.99, 1 = less than 1.0). The mean GPA in the sample is 4.137 indicating an average of around a high “B.”

Analytic Strategy

Because the dependent variable is continuous, we use an ordinary least squares regression model. Although the conspiracy beliefs scale is slightly skewed, we compared models using the natural logarithmic transformation. Results showed that the use of the transformation did not improve model fit to the data; therefore, we present results using the untransformed dependent measure. To proceed, we use a model building procedure to understand the linkage between self-control and conspiracy beliefs. First, model 1 shows the results of all control variables except self-control. Model 2 shows the results of an OLS model using all controls and self-control to understand how much of the variance of conspiracy beliefs is explained by self-control. All coefficients presented in the forthcoming models are standardized.

Results

First, as conspiracy beliefs and self-control may be highly correlated, we examined a correlation matrix. Results (not shown, but available) show these two measures share a correlation of r = .33. Given this moderate correlation, we then examined collinearity across all items. Results of a variance inflation analysis indicated that no variance inflation factor (VIF) was larger than 1.4. Thus, variance inflation and multicollinearity are not significantly inflating the standard errors Table 2.

Table 2.

OLS Regression Result Assessing Belief in Conspiracy Theories (n = 1,231).

	Model 1		Model 2
	β	SE	β	SE
Variable
Self-control	—	—	−0.252	0.003***
Social loner	−0.102	0.005***	−0.125	0.005***
Needs closure	0.021	0.004	0.051	0.004*
Political orientation
Conservative	0.301	0.054***	0.273	0.052***
Moderate	0.212	0.055***	0.189	0.053***
Race
White	−0.039	0.063	−0.026	0.061
Gender
Male	−0.208	0.043***	−0.204	0.041***
Sexual orientation
Heterosexual	0.015	0.047	0.026	0.045
Age	−0.139	0.010***	−0.104	0.010***
Income	−0.075	0.014*	−0.076	0.013**
Grade-point average (GPA)	−0.203	0.032***	0.155	0.031***
Intercept	3.697	0.184***	4.396	0.192***
R-square	0.21		0.27
F-test	33.22***		40.95***

Note: *p ≤ .05, **p ≤ .01, ***p ≤ .001; β = Standardized coefficient; SE = Standard error.

Model 1 shows the results of all covariates besides self-control. Overall, the R² shows that 21% of the variation in conspiracy belief is explained by the covariates in the model. Results of model 1 show that a number of correlates are significantly related to conspiracy beliefs. First, social isolation is significant and negatively related to conspiracy beliefs. Specifically, higher social isolation was related to decreased conspiracy beliefs. Both conservatives and moderates reported significantly higher conspiracy beliefs compared to liberals. Women, compared to men, reported significantly more belief in conspiracies. Finally, age, income, and GPA are all related to decreased conspiracy beliefs.

Model 2 includes self-control in the model. Overall, the R² shows that 27% of the variation in conspiracy belief is explained by the covariates in the model (increased from 21% in model 1). Results show that low self-control is significantly related to increased conspiracy beliefs (β = −.252; SE = .003; p ≤ .001). Specifically, one standard deviation higher score of self-control—indicating lower self-control—is associated with a .252-unit increase in conspiracy beliefs. Similar to model 1, social isolation, political orientation, gender, age, income, and GPA are all significantly related to conspiracy beliefs. Unlike model 1, the need for cognitive closure is significantly related to increased conspiracy beliefs.

Discussion

Cast against the backdrop of public interest in conspiracy theories, and research demonstrating that belief in conspiracy theories carries real-world consequences, understanding why some individuals believe is of critical importance. Towards providing theoretical clarity into this issue, the goal of the current study was to explore the linkage between conspiracy beliefs and self-control. We now return to the hypothesis and extant literature to explore the implications of the findings.

Through an application of self-control theory (Gottfredson and Hirschi 1990), we hypothesized that individuals with lower levels of self-control would endorse conspiracy theories at elevated levels compared to those with higher self-control. Findings were supportive of this hypothesis. Even after controlling for characteristics associated with conspiracy beliefs and a variety of demographic controls, low self-control remained a significant predictor of elevated belief in conspiracy theories. Turning back to recent research on self-control and paranormal beliefs (Mowen et al. 2022), we suggest that findings of the current study highlight an analogous process.

While the bulk of the literature assessing self-control theory has traditionally explored behaviors (e.g., substance use), the current study adds to the growing scholarship assessing how self-control relates deviant beliefs (Mowen et al. 2022; Pauwels and Svensson 2017). Characteristics of self-control such as self-centeredness and a desire for immediate gratification coupled with a lack of intellectual discipline could be the driving factors behind conspiracy endorsement. Likewise, deviant beliefs may be attractive insofar as they offer thrill seeking and risk, which are also characteristics of individuals with low self-control. Future research should continue to extend the application of self-control theory to other deviant beliefs.

The linkage between self-control and conspiracy beliefs carries important implications. For example, a growing body of literature demonstrates how belief in some conspiracies can lead to a range of negative outcomes including harmful health decisions (e.g., refusing contraceptives, vaccines, and other medicine; Thorburn and Bogart 2005), decreased political engagement (e.g., voting, making campaign contributions; Jolley and Douglas 2014), and decreased prosocial behaviors (e.g., donating, volunteering; van der Linden 2015). Moreover, conspiracy ideation has been linked with elevated levels of distrust, aggression, hostility (Grzesiak-Feldman 2015), extremist behavior (Bartlett and Miller 2010), and having lower job commitment and satisfaction (Douglas and Leite 2017). These findings suggest that although general engagement with conspiracy theories can be relatively innocuous, it can also carry detrimental ramifications. What the current study adds to this literature is that levels of self-control—which Gottfredson and Hirschi (1990) posit are established in childhood—are related to an individual’s propensity towards conspiracist beliefs. Policy makers within the U.S. should be cognizant of the fact that some people are predisposed to conspiracy beliefs.

Despite the contributions of the current study, it is not without theoretical and methodological limitations. Towards the former, though this study employed self-control theory (Gottfredson and Hirschi 1990), recent work on deviant behavior highlights the utility of other perspectives including general strain theory (Kolbel and Herold 2019), social learning and rational choice (Ryan and Gallupe 2022), and moral panic theory (Zielinska and Pasamonik 2021). Future research should consider how additional sociological and deviance theories explain belief in conspiracy theories. In terms of methodological limitations, the current study used a relatively homogeneous sample of college students, which may not be representative of other populations. Further research should test the association of self-control and conspiracy beliefs using other demographic segments of the U.S. Finally, the current study leveraged cross-sectional data, and thus there is concern over temporal ordering. It is possible that low self-control and belief in conspiracy theories develop concurrently, and additional longitudinal research should assess how conspiratorial beliefs and self-control change—or remain the same—over time.

In consideration of massive public interest surrounding conspiracy theories, deviance scholars must continue to explore and understand the theoretical underpinnings of conspiratorial belief. Addressing the need for an understanding of the key correlates of conspiracy beliefs, the current study applied self-control theory. Overall, findings highlight how self-control, net of numerous characteristics, is significantly associated with belief in a range of conspiracy theories. While there is little doubt of the link between self-control and criminal behaviors, this study illustrates that the reach of self-control extends beyond traditional markers of crime and also explains conspiracy beliefs.

Footnotes

Declaration of Conflicting Interests

The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Funding

The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

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