Climate Change and Migration in Sub-Sahara Africa: Implications for Inequality Within and Without

Executive Summary

This study investigates the dynamic interplay between climate change, migration, and inequality in 46 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 2009 to 2021, highlighting their combined impact on income and market disparities. Climate change worsens inequality by disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations that are reliant on agriculture, leading to displacement, economic instability, and food insecurity. Migration is often a coping mechanism for climate-induced challenges, which influences inequality through remittances and labor mobility. The study employs panel data analysis, using Driscoll-Kraay standard error estimates and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) techniques to establish causality. It examines income inequality within countries and market inequality among countries, incorporating control variables such as resource endowment, trade openness, corruption, inflation, and government expenditure.

The study finds that climate change significantly increases income inequality within SSA countries, with a 1 percent rise in climate change associated with a 6 percent increase in income inequality, as it disrupts livelihoods, particularly for the poorest communities. International migration, however, reduces intra-country inequality by 1 percent increase in migration flows, largely due to remittances which improve household incomes in lower-income brackets. The interaction of climate change and international migration has a slight additional effect, increasing income inequality by 0.001 units per percentage increase, indicating that climate-induced migration exacerbates disparities. Conversely, this interaction between climatic change and international migration mitigates market inequality among SSA countries, fostering economic integration and resource allocation. Resource endowment, surprisingly, worsens income inequality due to the resource curse, benefiting elites while neglecting broader populations. Corruption and inflation further amplify income disparities. By contrast, increased government expenditure reduces inequality by creating job opportunities and supporting equitable growth.

The study stresses the urgent need for integrated policy interventions to address the intertwined challenges of climate change, migration, and inequality in SSA. It recommends climate mitigation policies that prioritize inequality reduction, focusing on vulnerable groups through climate-resilient agriculture, sustainable livelihoods, and social safety nets. Enhancing transparency and cooperation in managing shared resources, such as waterways and forests, is crucial to curb corruption and conflicts. These measures conform with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 10 (reduced inequalities), 13 (climate action), and 8 (decent work and economic growth).