Abstract
South China Sea: Energy and Security Conflict by Christopher Daniels is representative of a new wave of literature (ranging from Ramo’s The Beijing Consensus (2004) to Erickson’s China, the United States, and 21st-century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership) and concerned with examining the economic rise of China and its corresponding drive for securing resources. Despite the potentially devastating consequences of the South China Sea dispute for the world economy, the issues and historical complexities surrounding the dispute are understood by few. In South China Sea: Energy and Security Conflict, Daniels sets out to demystify the core causes of this conflict through a historically based examination of the territorial claims, economic drivers and energy needs of those countries involved. In doing so, the author addresses a number of themes ranging from the economic growth of China and its new status as a regional military hegemon, to energy security and the potential fallout of a full-scale military confrontation.
However, the author’s heavy reliance on secondary sources and simplistic central premise that the dispute is driven by the twofold desire to enhance oil security and exploit the region’s energy resources has resulted in a text which is heavily indebted to the work of previous authors such as Andrew Erickson, David Scott and Robert Sutter. In addition, although the author manages to draw from a wide range of sources ranging from academic journals and newspapers to websites, global institutions and economic forum papers, he draws overwhelmingly from Western sources, especially those published in the USA. Furthermore, Daniels derives much information about SCS resources from the quarterly reports of business papers such as Business Monitor and Oxford Business Group, which have a clear pro-Western bias, and draws throughout on The World Factbook, a website run by the CIA. Thus, although the author sets out to comprehensively examine the issues surrounding the South China Sea dispute, the real merit of the text lies in its successful synthesis of previous Western analyses of the conflict.
The book begins with an outline of the background and history of the South China Sea dispute, detailing the dimensions of the South China Sea, its importance as a shipping transit route, the various claims and claimants, and the legal frameworks governing these claims. In addition, the text also provides a detailed account of the main military incidents in the region and identifies the main factors behind them, ranging from Sino-Vietnamese tensions during the Cold War to the more recent rivalry between China, the Philippines and India. The author’s analysis of the shifting Cold War alliances and simmering tensions between China and the other claimant nations is insightful and concise, providing a clear, historically informed overview of the key events that have shaped the dispute.
The second chapter is dedicated to the examination of the South China Sea’s energy reserves, the current oil production capabilities of the claimant nations and the possible implications on the global energy market from exploiting the region. Following his examination of the region’s potential energy supply and the growing gap between the claimant nations’ energy requirements and production capabilities, Daniels makes the persuasive argument that resolving the dispute is not only desirable but also necessary to prevent an economic crisis. However, the author’s focus on the claimant nations’ energy needs and the (virtually) untapped potential of the South China Sea ignores a host of other economic and geopolitical issues which are integral to the South China Sea dispute. These issues range from the rise of nationalism in China and Vietnam, China’s need for a peaceful external environment to encourage growth to the perceived need by many Southeast Asian nations to increase oil security. Furthermore, the author fails to emphasize the significance of the South China Sea as a strategic sea line of communication between the Pacific and Indian Ocean chokepoints of the Taiwan Strait and the Straits of Malacca. This is particularly significant given that the International Energy Agency’s World Outlook 2009 projected a drop in oil production of 1.3 mb/d in Southeast Asia between 2008 and 2030, which will make the region increasingly reliant on Middle Eastern oil which passes through the Malacca Strait (cited in Hong, 2010, p. 416).
The third chapter focuses on analyzing the economic significance of nations of the South China Sea and the increased economic interconnectedness between these nations and the USA, and the subsequent impact a disruption in production in the region could have on the global economy. The fourth chapter is dedicated entirely to detailing of the evolution of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and China’s aspirations for regional dominance. However, whilst the author provides a detailed examination of the various factors driving PLAN’s modernization, he also primarily engages with scholarly debate concerning the expansion of China’s naval power and Chinese foreign policy. Furthermore, the author’s treatment of China as a monolithic actor fails to address the divergence between the strategies and interests of the formal foreign policy apparatus and the People’s Liberation Army, and the central and regional government, over the South China Sea issue.
The fifth chapter sets out to examine US involvement and interest in the Asia-Pacific region, outlining US military engagement in the area over the last century analyzing its current ‘political and economic interest in the region’ (p. 57). However, the author only briefly glosses over US interests as determined by the need for stability to protect its economic interests, instead dedicating a significant part of the chapter to US military intervention in World War II, and later Vietnam and Korea. Although the shift in US policy following Pearl Harbor was significant with American influence and military institutions established during the war continuing until the present, the author focuses in unnecessary detail on Pearl Harbor and the pacific front of World War II. Describing the breakdown of relations prior to World War II and listing the US battleships damaged in the assault are of limited relevance to the chapter’s stated goal of examining how ‘US interest in the region has evolved from a defence focus… to an economic focus’ (p. 71). Furthermore, the author’s argument that the US presence in the South China Sea is a stabilizing factor in the dispute fails to account for China’s strategic rivalry with the USA, which makes it unresponsive to the concerns of ASEAN states, whilst also lending a certain degree of assertiveness to Chinese behaviour.
In the final chapter, the author reiterates his argument that the dispute must be resolved to avoid an economic crisis, then proceeds to outline various efforts that have been made to resolve the dispute and provides his own policy recommendations. The author provides four policy recommendations which can be described as optimistic at best, with two reliant on China acquiescing to the will of foreign powers at the UN, and another simply to encourage economic cooperation and strengthen regional organizations. The fourth policy recommendation to pressure China to negotiate is based on the author’s belief that the USA can place economic pressure on China, the result of which would be questionable given the economic interdependence between China and the USA the author earlier established. Furthermore, the author’s belief that Japan and India could counter China’s strong influence and pressure it to negotiate is erroneous given China’s historically assertive policy in the South China Sea and its fear of encirclement could easily lead to escalation and military confrontation. Ultimately the author can only offer the suggestion that ‘until China can be neutralised, the conflict will continue’ (p. 80), which, given the degree of economic dependency between China and the rest of the world, is unlikely.
The key strength of this book lies in Daniel’s ability to weave together previous research on the South China Sea into an informative historically based analysis of the South China Sea dispute. Although this text does suffer from a lack of primary and non-Western texts, it excels in situating the recent conflict within its historical context and drawing together previous research surrounding energy insecurity, maritime security and Chinese foreign policy. However, whilst the focus on securing energy resources and economic stability is insightful, the author’s failure to address other key factors and issues surrounding the dispute is regrettable. Furthermore, the policy recommendations are a distraction from the book’s key insights regarding the need for a resolution to the dispute to prevent economic crisis. These factors along with the book’s accessible layout and other handy features such as the timeline of key events, key people and institutions, international treaties involving nations in the South China Sea region, and key maps make this an ideal reference text for interested observers, undergraduate students and academics alike.