Abstract
Since the year 2000, and more importantly since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008, Sino-US relations have been described as the most significant relationship in international politics in the twenty-first century. China–US relations have certainly captivated the attention of policymakers and international relations scholars in the last three decades as evidenced by the cottage industry of studies about the contemporary relationship at the economic, political and strategic levels. Scholars of international relations have exhausted the extant theories in an attempt to decipher the complicated relational dynamics of these two superpowers. Yet, something seems to be amiss in the current studies. Steve Chan, in his book Trust and Distrust in Sino-American Relations, proposes that we should consider the role of interstate trust to understand Sino-US relations going forward.
Overall the book is well organized. Chan sets out the tone in Chapter 1 for the rationale of the book. In this chapter, he sets the context of why it is important for us to study the role of interstate trust in international relations. The author suggests that the extant international relations theory has missed out on the concept of interstate trust as an important variable that can enrich our understanding of interstate relationships, particularly at the major power level. He proposes in this opening chapter that incorporating the concept of trust into the analysis of Sino-US relations not only enriches our understanding of this important superpower relations but can also provide us with a window to understand the future of this relationship.
Chan makes six major arguments in his book. First is that the existing mutual distrust between the two countries is deeply rooted and not entirely unjustified. Second, trust is not just a bilateral matter. Third, trust is built on the basis of equity, parity, empathy and reciprocity. Fourth, how a state acts in stressful situations and when is free to behave without constraints tends to reveal its true character. Fifth, democracies’ more transparent policy processes help to disclose their preferences and motivations. Finally, strategic restraint holds the key to building mutual trust.
In Chapter 2, Chan dissects the concept of trust to make it more manageable for analytical purposes. Chan defines trust as ‘one’s judgments about another person or state’s future intentions’ (p. 48). Conversely, distrust is defined as ‘attributing malevolent intentions to the other party’ (p. 51). From these definitions, he works on to operationalize the concept of trust/distrust by proposing that several indicators—listening to the other’s words, making sense of the other’s deeds, using armament and alliance behaviour, treatment of weak neighbours and domestic minorities and whether a state keeps its promises or not. These are reasonable indicators that can allow states and their leaders to decipher whether a state is trustworthy or not. Needless to say that Chan does not claim to propose an exhaustive list of indicators to determine trustworthiness. What Chan is proposing is a basic and/or starting list that not only gives us some clues to a state’s trustworthiness but also informs us of the complex and multidimensional nature of the concept of interstate trust.
In Chapters 3, 4 and 5, Chan proficiently prosecutes an analysis of the types of trust and distrust visible in Sino-US relations. In a way, in these empirical chapters, the case of Sino-US relations only serves as a backdrop for the ‘test’ of the concept of interstate trust and how well or not it can explain the relations between the dominant power—the USA—and the supposed challenging power—China. In Chapter 3, Chan examines the weak form of trust where ‘one believes that another state will refrain from unfriendly acts because it is compelled by its circumstances’ (p. 97). Throughout the empirical analysis of these chapters, Chan illuminates an under-specified aspect of the dynamics behind China–US bilateral relations, namely by presenting a causal mechanism through which to understand the mutual distrust evident in the two countries’ bilateral relations.
In Chapter 4, Chan examines the ‘semi-strong’ form of trust that is motivated by reputational considerations as opposed to being compelled by circumstances as in the weak form of trust discussed in Chapter 3. In this chapter, Chan asked if two countries that had such distrust for the other would enter into the level of economic transactions and engagement that they are experiencing today? He then methodically examines the state of US–China relations from the perspective of two pathways for trust-building—economic interactions and international organizations. Two important points are made in this chapter: first that economic interactions deepen the economic vulnerability of a state to its trade partners and second that participation in international organizations is a way to signal commitment to rules. On these two points, Chan observes that the willingness of both China and the USA to engage in extensive economic interactions shows that there is some willingness to trust the other as the vulnerabilities of reliance on trade on the other is clear. China’s participation in international organizations since opening up in 1979 also signals its willingness to trust the other. More importantly, in both trade and international organizations, US–China interactions show signs that relationships are not only based in the circumstances that both countries find themselves in but also because of their reputational considerations.
Chapter 5 then examines the strong form of trust where ‘it is based on the shared identity rather than interests’ (p. 183). In this chapter, Chan uses both countries support for international norms and institutions to examine whether this strong form of trust exists between the USA and China. As the strong form is based on shared identities and not on interests (alone, anyway), he concludes based on the available evidence that ‘Sino-American relations are far from reaching this strong form of trust’ (p. 183). However, rather than throw in the towel and give up on the bilateral relations between the two superpowers to ever be based on shared identity, Chan offers a ray of hope and pathway by arguing that beliefs and values can change over time and are possible to make former enemies to become friends. Having said that, he warns that the path can be long and arduous but not impossible.
As the convergence of culture, social order and identities takes generations, it is difficult for policymakers and leaders to be able to directly affect them at the present moment. Chan then uses the concluding chapter to argue that the practice of strategic restraint is something that the leaders of both countries can do. According to Chan, ‘the practice of strategic restraint follows from an adherence to a restrictive normative order, on that is based on the great powers’ self-binding and co-binding to a common code of conduct’ (p. 224). For Chan, strategic restraint is a very important variable in building mutual trust and how states observe critical norms such as ‘limitations on the use of force, adherence to treaty obligations, and recognition of the geostrategic boundaries of their competition’ (p. 224) are critical in the practice of strategic restraint and therefore can help build trust.
Trust and Distrust in Sino-American Relations is a book well-worth reading. In my view, the most important contribution of this book is the introduction of the concept of ‘trust’ into the international relations theory literature. Chan’s contribution to the literature is taking a step further from the descriptive studies that characterizes the works of many scholars of US–China relations and Sinologists. Rather than stick to the idiographic level of analysis, as Sinologists or Americanists would do in their studies, Chan raises the analysis to the nomothetic level where the concept and indicators can be employed for studies beyond the contemporary US–China relations to relations between other powers in the future. Yet, there is something in this excellent book for every type of students and scholars here to take away. For Sinologists and students of Sino-American relations, it provides them with the big picture and an explanation of China’s place in it. For international relations students, it gives us an additional variable—an instrumental variable—as such to help us enhance and enrich extant theories of major power relations.