Abstract
The protests and yearning for change in the Arab world have not run their course and even after five years, there is no overarching roadmap. Not just the protesting public but also the stubborn regimes are clueless about the endgame. Individual Arab countries are struggling to evolve a model that reflects and suits their social and demographic specificity. No country—Arab or non-Arab—can influence or determine the appropriate model for another.
The declining American politico-strategic influence in the region is apparent and will continue without any other country or group of countries being in a position to provide an alternate leadership. Some external powers trying to carve out spheres of influence without dominating the entire region appears a more realistic scenario. Despite criticisms and disapprovals, religious extremism and sectarian tensions are here to stay and political violence in the region would continue to undermine the stability, territorial integrity, and in some cases even viability of the Westphalian state.
The Israeli–Palestinian conflict is important but an immediate resolution is unlikely because both sides lack wisdom, foresight, and political will. With so many other pressing domestic problems around, it does not appear to be the core problem facing the region, and Arab and non-Arab countries have far more serious problems to worry about than the statelessness of the Palestinians.
Oil prices will continue to be low and this will affect both big and smaller energy players, especially with the entry of post-sanctions Iran into the market. The low oil price will also affect the search for non-hydrocarbon energy alternatives and would also slow down the limited progress on carbon emission and climate change.
It is essential to recognize that Saudi Arabia is an economic power but in military terms its security concerns and fears are not different from those of small states. This is reflected in its approach toward a number of regional developments. Thus, even when disagreeing with its depiction of Iran and its ambitions in the region, external powers, eager to engage with the region, would have to recognize Saudi concerns vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic.
One week is too long for the Middle East and it is difficult, even dangerous, to be an optimist. The choice, therefore, is between the uncertain status quo and an unpredictable nightmare.