Abstract
The territorial retreat of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has not brought any meaningful end to violence linked, associated, or inspired by the Islamic Caliphate. Its amorphous and unorganized nature has been a major challenge to international efforts to contain the extremist group and its ideological indoctrination. In the first half of 2016 alone, terrorist violence in a number of countries both within and outside the Middle East are linked or attributed to the ISIS. France continues to be the principal victim of ISIS-linked violence and the Orlando nightclub shooting in June brought the ISIS to the American soil. The multiple Paris attack in November 2015 in which 130 persons were killed continues to reverberate the continent and was shaken again by the Nice attack in July 2016 in which at least 84 persons were mowed to death. Recent attacks in Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Kazakhstan have only highlighted the truly global nature of the problem.
Prominent Muslim and non-Muslim leaders and clergy have condemned and renounced the ISIS as un-Islamic as well as inhuman. Important as they are, such denunciations will not be sufficient to tame the menace. Of late, reports suggest that a number of Indian youth (sometimes their family members as well) are gravitating toward the Islamic Caliphate and global jihad. Their sense of alienation and attraction toward brutality in the name of Islam needs to be approached and addressed sociologically. While everyone might not be amenable to dialogue and reasoning, addressing their sense of isolation and alienation could reduce the possibilities of them being attracted to ISIS.
The democratization of the Middle East was briefly shaken on 15 July when a section of the Turkish military sought to stage a coup against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and this failed largely due to popular opposition to the deposing of an elected leader. For long, the military saw itself as the custodian of the Kemalist republic and periodically transformed Turkey into a praetorian state and the last military intervention took place in February 1997, when it deposed another Islamist Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan of the Welfare Party, the ideological predecessor of the present ruling Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (Justice and Development Party) (AKP).
President Erdoğan who emerged stronger was quick to blame Fethullah Gülen, the leader of the Gülen Movement, now in exile in Pennsylvania, for the coup and promised strong measures. Early signs are that Erdoğan might use the unsuccessful bid to further strengthen his control and scuttle clamp down criticisms of his growing authoritarian style of governance. There are calls for the reintroduction of death penalty that was formally abolished in 2004 as part of Turkey’s EU-membership bid.
Falling oil prices and regional rivalry with Iran, especially in Yemen, have compelled Saudi Arabia to reorganize its priorities. Promising a definite break from the rentier model, on 25 April, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin-Salman unveiled Vision 2030 which seeks to reduce the economic dependence upon oil exports by 2020. It calls for generating one million jobs, mostly meant for the Saudi nationals and encourages the Saudi nationals to get used to the idea of paying for the services, which are presently provided free due to the oil wealth. Though many observers have expressed skepticism over the Saudi willingness to pay for the welfare measures, the Vision 2030 marks a definite break from the past and needs to be watched carefully.
Closer home, the early 2016 saw Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting Saudi Arabia (April), Iran (May), and Qatar (June) and with his visit to the UAE in August 2015, he had established high-level political contacts with all the principal countries of the Persian Gulf region. Besides energy security, economic engagements appear to be the principal driving force behind this move. There are indications that the Prime Minister would visit Israel sometime in 2017 when both the countries celebrate the 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations. The first prime ministerial visit to Israel would be watched closely by observers, both within and outside the country.