Abstract
The 2015 Omani Shura Council elections came amidst a crucial time with down economic trend and continuing uncertainty over succession. Regular council elections are an important takeaway but declining interests among voters reflected in a sharp fall in turnout. In fact, the 2011 elections had recorded a high participation rate due to the Arab Spring. Issues such as corruption, job creation, and improvement of the living standard were most important as was the case in 2011. While one finds numerous changes and evolution of the electoral process, including use of technology and participation of women, the democratization process remains slow and uncertain.
Elections in the emirate of Oman trace their roots from ibadism, the dominant form of Islam practiced in the country which encourages policymakers to take decisions through consultation and consensus. It promotes people to select their leaders through such consultations (Holland, 2013; Jones & Ridout, 2005). Democratic tenets are rooted in the Omani society. Due to the principle of consultation, the Omani government has made efforts to encourage citizens to participate in electoral activities through the limited freedom of choice (Government of Oman, 2013, p. 111; Government of Oman, 2016; The Jakarta Post, 2015).
Though it became independent emirate in 1970, Oman held its first elections of the 59-member Shura Council in November 1991 but the right to vote was restricted only to tribal leaders and dignitaries. Since then, such elections with a limited electoral college were held in 1994 and 1997. Throughout this period, the right to contest and vote was restricted to influential tribal figures whose number ranged from 50,000 (Fenack Chronicle, 2015). Since 1991, the electoral process has gradually evolved into an all-encompassing democratic exercise, where the numbers taking part gradually increased multifold since to reach up to 525,785 in 2015. Oman has witnessed a “top-down” democratization process that mixed traditional practices of Shura (Consultation), derived from ibadism, with the modern concept of democracy (Al-Farsi, 2013).
In 2011, the electoral process reached to new heights when the country registered 76 percent voter turnout but in the 8th Shura Council elections, the participation dropped significantly. However, coming against the backdrop of popular protests in different parts of the Arab world, it was an important development in Oman.
History of Shura Elections
In November 1991, a 59-member Shura Council also known as Majlis al-Shura was established and this replaced the State Consultative Council that was in existence since 1981 as an attempt to widen people’s participation in the government and modernize the governance structure (BBC News, 2011). Shura Council deliberates the development of economic and social laws, preparation of the projects of five-year development plans, and discusses topics of interest to citizens such as high prices and infrastructure (Government of Oman, 2016). The power of assembly is limited to giving opinions and suggesting recommendations which are not binding.
In the first election held in 1991, the Omanis elected a 59-member Shura Council and in 1994, the Sultan “expanded the number of Shura Council seats to 80 … , a move that allocated 2 members for districts with a higher population” (Government of Oman, 2013, p. 99). As Omani population increased from 2.109 million in 1994 to 2.178 million in 1997, the number of seats was expanded to 82 when the next elections were held in October 1997 (ibid). In 1996, the Shura Council was transformed into an elected body, but the voting rights were not given to all citizens and only a limited numbers of citizens chosen by tribal leaders were allowed to take part in the elections (Freedom in the Middle East and North Africa, 2005).
In 1997, tribal leaders selected 50,000 (see Table 1) citizens to take part in elections, and in 2000, the number increased to 114,000 (Carpenter & Henderson, 2007). Prior to July 2000, the Sultan ordered a revision of the election procedures and the new changes included “direct registration of candidates with provincial governors rather than with tribal leaders and an increase in the number of Omanis allowed to vote from 50,000 to 175,000” (Freedom House, 2002). However, only 114,000 eligible voters registered for the polls.
Elections in Oman
In October 2003, Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said, who was at the helm of affairs since Oman gained independence in 1971, took a small but positive step in widening the country’s political system by conducting a first full-scale election for the 83 members of the Shura Council. However, the power of Shura Council remains limited but elections gave voting rights to all adult citizens without gender discrimination for the first time (Freedom in the Middle East and North Africa, 2005). In the process, Oman became the first country belonging to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to grant adult franchise to women. Moreover, for the first time in Oman’s history, women also contested. Later on, the powers of the Shura Council were expanded by Sultan Qaboos in 2011, after Oman was caught up in the unprecedented social unrest that was sweeping the region (Mahjoub, 2015).
However, rather than calling for serious regime change, people of Oman demanded changes that directly affected them, such as, creation of jobs, greater state control over spiraling food prices, more power to the Shura Council, and an end to the perceived corruption of some senior members of the government (BBC News, 2011).
Shura Elections, 2015
The eighth Shura Council elections were held in Oman on 25 October 2015, the second such election since the body was promised greater powers following the Arab Spring-inspired protests of 2011. The elections came during an economically challenging period, as a relentless phase of low oil prices had strained Oman’s economy with 85 percent of the economy dependent on oil and gas exports (The Jakarta Post, 2015). During the elections, 611,906 voters having activated their electoral cards used their universal franchise to choose from 590 candidates, who were vying for 85 seats in the Shura Council (Oman News Agency, 2015). The candidates also included 20 women. Nationwide, 107 voting centers were set up among the 61 provinces. Wilayat of Salalah topped the list with the highest number of candidates, that is, 28 candidates, followed by Ibri and Nizwa, with 25 candidates. Most of the candidates belonged to 30–44 age group; 432 candidates or 64 percent of the total number of candidates belong to this age group (Daily Oman Observer, 2015).
In comparison to the 2011 elections, the number of the candidates showed a decline and as against 1,131, it dropped to 590 in 2015. According to the Ministry of Interior, 297,905 out of 525,785 registered voters participated in the polls; representing 56.6 percent, declining from 76 percent voting in the 2011 elections. The significant decline in the voting pattern was an indication of declining interest among the public (see Table 2) for the electoral process.
The Shura Council Elections Result 2011 and 2015
Talal bin Ahmed al Sa’adi, the Rapporteur of the Higher Committee for Majlis A’Shura elections underlined that
[T]he number of candidates in the elections stood at 590 including 12 holders of PhD, 70 holders of master degrees, and 200 holders of the bachelor degree, in addition to holders of higher education diploma post general education. The number of voters stood at 525,785 including 237,918 females and 278,804 males. (Oman News Agency, 2015b)
Al Wusta Governorate recorded 80 percent voter turnout, which was the highest in all governorate and out of 9,855 registered voters, 7,871 male and female voters casted their votes (ibid.). According to media reports, 25 members won a second consecutive term. Though, 70.5 percent of the Shura members are new to the council and majority of new members are in their 30s and this signifies “a new change from conservative Gulf tradition, which usually favours elders” (The Arab Weekly, 2015). Nearly 30 percent people of the total population were not eligible to “vote due to age limits and another 20 percent were also excluded as they work in the military sector” (Al Mukrashi, 2016).
Participation of Woman
In comparison to other Gulf countries, Oman has been relatively progressive female participation in politics. Oman opened the doors of its political system for women in 1994, by giving them the right to vote and to stand for public offices. However, the government appointed its first female minister, Sheikha Aisha bin Khalfan bin Jameel al-Sayabiyah, almost a decade later (BBC News, 2003). She was given charge of the National Authority for Industrial Craftsmanship. Over the years, Oman has promoted women to participate actively in social and political life, appointing them as undersecretaries and ambassadors. However, Shura Council elections show that participation of women has seen ups and downs, the number of female candidates in the Shura Council elections were 15 in 2003, which increased to 21 in 2007, and 77 in 2011 but dropped to 20 in 2015.
Moreover in 2015, only one female candidate (Nemah al-Busaidiya) was elected out of 20 women candidates. A women’s rights supporter from Muscat, Aisha Kharusi, said that the low female representation on the new council was “disappointing” (The Arab weekly, 2016).
An analysis of eighth Shura Council elections broadly highlights diminished interest among the people for elections. During 2011 elections, only 590 candidates contested, compared to 1,131 four years earlier. The number of women who ran in these elections plummeted to 20, in contrast to 77 in 2011.
Despite Oman’s legal guarantees for equal opportunity in employment, women are not allowed to serve in the country courts. In civil services, the representation of women is limited and the government continues to be the largest employer of women (Government of Oman, 2013, p. 111). Even though Oman was the GCC country to allow women as candidates in 1994, the number of women who have been elected has diminished from two seats in the first election to only one in 2015 (see Table 3).
Women’s Participation
Reasons for Apathy
Many experts underlined that there are several reasons for the sharp decline in the number of candidates in the Shura Council elections. According to Fanack Chronicle, “limited legislative and the executive authority’s control of decision-making in the country” was the main reason for declining number of candidates. A limited allocation of powers to the Shura Council makes it an advisory body which can only provide nonbinding opinions. Furthermore, “weak tribal and family relations, as well as the illegal buying of votes, make it difficult for effective new candidates to win seats on the council” (Fanack Chronicle, 2010).
A new issue came into the picture in the recent council elections. The Shura Council election committee disqualified a number of candidates, from the lists of candidates without giving considerable justification. This evoked widespread criticisms from intellectuals and activists on social media platforms. On twitter, a hashtag titled “Excluding candidates of Majlis Al-Shura” was started which asked the authorities to clarify the reasons for disqualifications (Gulf News, 2015).
The Undersecretary of the Ministry of Interior and Chairman of the Main Committee for Majlis Al Shura elections, Khalid Bin Hilal Al Busaidi noted that total 174 nomination applications were rejected, in addition to one case of withdrawal and one death. Majority of applications were cancelled because of
[The] involvement in a felony or crime involving moral turpitude—45 percent of the total rejected applications. Another 23 per cent of the applicants had not applied in the specific time frame of the electoral register, while other 9 percent did not have a General Education Diploma. (ibid.)
Use of Technology
In the eighth Shura Council elections, Oman used award-winning technologies for the electoral procedure. In order to ease the electoral process, electronic machines were introduced to conduct elections in a more organized and accurate way. The use of biometrics helped in verifying voters’ identity through their fingerprints. It shortened the process of counting the votes and announcement of results with a high level of security and accuracy as well (ibid.). Al Busaidi affirmed that e-voting system had proved efficient and accurate during the elections. Hence, in the future, there is a wider scope for the use of this system in the election process (Al-Ghadani, 2015).
Conclusion
The eighth Shura Council elections in Oman came at a difficult time; on the one hand, country’s economy was struggling because of continuing low oil prices and on the another hand, these elections were held against the backdrop of the war in the neighboring Yemen. It was also a critical time as Sultan Qaboos was not well and was not seen in public since March 2015.
The results of 2015 elections brought disappointment as voter turnout saw a drastic downfall from 76 percent in 2011 to 56 percent in 2015. Furthermore, a visible lack of interest can be noted among the people to contest in the election, as it crashed from 1,131 to 590 in 2015. The number of women candidates too declined to 20, in contrast to 77 in the previous election.
An overview of the 2015 election results shows that the seventh Shura Council elections (2011) were the only election in which people’s participation was very high. Otherwise, there was no major shift in the people’s participation in the elections. It might be a result of the Arab uprising inspired protests that forced the government to take some steps on the issue of corruption, job creation, and improvement of the living standard of the population.
Concluding, this research has noted that there is a slight contradiction in the government’s data regarding the total number of voters. Before the election in a press release, the Ministry of Interior noted that 611,906 people have active electoral cards but after the elections, the ministry said that the total number of registered voters were 525,785.
Footnotes
Acknowledgements
This article is a part of the project on Elections and Democratization in the Arab World supported by Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi and the author acknowledges the support of the University.