Abstract
The humanitarian tragedies in the Middle East, especially in Syria and Yemen, show no signs of respite. Despite various efforts, peace and stability continue to be elusive, and the civil wars in both the countries have consumed thousands of civilians or displaced millions out of their homes or forced them to flee to neighboring countries. In both countries, millions need urgent humanitarian aid.
The emerging rapprochement between the Syrian regime and the Gulf Arab countries in late 2018 could be a turning point in regional politics. Having opposed President Bashar al-Assad for over a decade, the Gulf countries are turning a new leaf. Should the reconciliation materialize, Syria should be readmitted into the Arab League from which it was suspended in November 2011. The intra-Arab rapprochement also signals the failure of the great powers in bringing about an end to human tragedy in Syria. Regional reconciliation is a precondition for Syrian reconstruction and might even induce Qatar–Saudi Arabia to reflect and re-examine their tension and boycott.
Having withered the eight years of internal turmoil, the Syrian regime would also have to reflect on the cost of survival, both human and material. At least in the short-to-medium level, Syria, as one understood at the end of the World War II, is no longer feasible. The manner in which both the regime and its opponents dealt with the opposition would require considerable soul searching, reflection, and reconciliation. A credible accountability process would be necessary if the societal wounds were to heal, and this would take a generation or two.
Closing the Syrian file with a modicum of regional consensus would enable the Arab world to address some of the other challenges posed by the Arab Spring protests such as educated unemployment, accountable governance, transparency, empowerment of the marginalized and political reforms. The region, especially the hydrocarbon-rich Gulf Arab countries, would have to meet these challenges amid falling oil prices and global search for nonfossil energy alternatives. Indeed, an early end to the civil war in Syria and Yemen is also an economic imperative, and the cost of Saudi operations in Yemen, for example, is pegged at US$200 million per day when the Yemeni GDP (purchasing power parity) is estimated at US$73 billion in 2017. However, given the propensity of the Middle East to be unpredictable, one must be cautious and watchful for an early end to the human misery in Yemen and Syria.
As Contemporary Review of the Middle East entered the sixth year, the Middle East Institute (MEI) has opened a YouTube channel in the name of MEI,
New Delhi, where videos of MEI events, activities, and other podcasts would be posted. As part of its outreach activities, MEI is also proposing panels in various international conferences both inside and outside India. With so many twists and turns, the Middle East is never a dull moment for scholars and laypersons alike.