Abstract
Abstract
This article examines the degree of financial integration among the equity markets of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) by using monthly data collected for the period 2005–2014. The study employs Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and Granger causality test which confirm the existence of relationship in the short and long run among the equity markets of BRICS. Further results exhibit that there exists cointegration or a long-run relationship among the equity markets, but weak cointegration, though the results of Granger causality test do not display existence of any causality among market pairs such as China–Brazil, Russia–Brazil, South Africa–Brazil, Russia–China, and South Africa–India. The results indicate that even though the financial integration among the equity markets of BRICS is on ascendance, it is yet incomplete. This work suggests harmonization of laws, regulations, and operations based on international principles and appropriate regulatory supervision among BRICS nations in order to minimize the risk of financial integration, besides further relaxing restrictions on capital account for expedited financial integration.
Introduction
The economic liberalization in most of the Third-World countries during the 1980s and the 1990s led to greater integration of their domestic financial markets with the global one, paving the way for enhanced flow of capital. It may be noted that financial integration refers to the extent the domestic financial markets are connected to each other at the domestic, regional, or international levels (Agénor, 2003; Ayuso & Blanco, 2001; Fahami, 2011; Worthington & Higgs, 2010). There are two approaches to measure the level of financial integration, namely de jure and de facto. The de jure approach measures financial integration by counting the relaxed number of legal restrictions that otherwise constrain the flows of capital, though mere this action does not indicate actual degree of integration, as only removal of restrictions on capital flows may not ensure a growth in capital flows. The de facto approach, on the other hand, measures the actual financial integration either by measuring the actual cross-border capital flows or by measuring the convergence of prices of financial assets. The “law of one price” is used as the theoretical background to measure financial integration in price-based measures. Under this law, given the risk, greater financial integration leads to greater convergence of prices of assets of similar nature. Thus, convergence of asset prices between countries can be used to measure the degree of financial integration, while quantity-based measures use actual financial flows and cross-border assets holding to measure financial integration (Park, 2014).
The present article uses price-based de facto measures of financial integration for measuring the financial integration among the equity markets of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS). Interestingly, a financial market is a very huge and highly heterogeneous domain involving variety of components such as bond markets, equity markets, and money markets which vary from one to another in terms of risk and liquidity. With this heterogeneity, it is very difficult to measure financial integration by taking the entire financial market and estimating the convergence of asset prices of various segments (RBI, 2007). The present study, therefore, measures only the convergence of asset prices of equity markets of BRICS as representative to the whole financial markets of BRICS.
Capital Account Liberalization Policies Adopted by BRICS
One of the important benefits of financial integration is the flow of capital from capital surplus countries to capital deficient countries (Agénor, 2003; Gourinchas & Jeanne, 2006; Prasad, Rajan, & Subramanian, 2006). Hence, without capital account liberalization, financial integration is not possible. In fact, capital account convertibility represents de jure measure of financial integration. This section, therefore, examines the capital account liberalization policies adopted by BRICS as a precursor to the empirical analysis.
Brazil
Capital account liberalization initiatives were undertaken in Brazil simultaneously with trade reforms in the 1990s. The high and volatile inflation of the 1980s and the early 1990s constituted a major obstacle to the development of well-organized financial markets in Brazil (Ter-Minassian, 2012). As a result, Brazil adopted “Plano Real” in 1994 to combat the problem of hyper-inflation. Reforms, including relaxation on the restrictions of entry of foreign banks, were made during this period. Inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) were encouraged in the early 1990s, by relaxing barriers in certain sectors and by reducing bureaucratic obstacles. Brazilian government in 1991 granted permission to foreign institutional investors for investing in equities of domestic firms. In 1992, the Central Bank of Brazil relaxed the outflows of capital by introducing a special non-resident account called CC5 to be freely operated by foreign financial institutions with respect to foreign currencies transactions. The Central Bank in 1994 increased the minimum maturity requirement for capital inflows in order to reduce the upward pressure on exchange rate, and outflows were encouraged by allowing pre-payment for foreign borrowings and allowing import finance. The restriction on current account transactions was fully removed by 1999, facilitating full convertibility in current account of Brazil (Lattimore & Kowalski, 2011).
Russia
The period from 1991 to 1998 was extremely volatile for Russia, as this was the time when the economy was migrating from command to a market economy in a very short period. During this period, trade reforms and capital account liberalization were undertaken, though the economy was not prepared for big bang reforms precisely because of its weak institutional mechanism. The government also removed restrictions on capital account by relaxing restrictions on non-resident portfolio inv-estment in 1994 and completed it by 1998 (de Paula, 2008). However, the inflationary pressure and the weakening of Russian currency and consequently massive capital outflows in 1998 forced the government to restore control over capital outflows. Besides, trading in short-term treasury bills was suspended, and maturity of domestic debt was extended (Pinto & Ulatov, 2012). However, Russia recovered from the crisis very rapidly with the timely global rise in oil prices and a massive rise in its foreign exchange earnings. The capital controls were lifted and full capital account convertibility was accomplished in 2006.
India
Capital account liberalization in India was initiated after the balance of payment crisis of 1991. India followed a cautious approach while liberalizing the capital account, though it had decided to open up the economy by reducing the tariffs and liberalizing the capital account. Full convertibility of current account was completed in 1994 (de Paula, 2008). However, in the case of capital account, a more cautious and vigilant approach was adopted as it partly opened it up by allowing limited access to FDI in select group of high-priority industries, that is, 51 percent foreign equity ownership. Since then, their scopes were gradually expanded in the next two decades. Liberalization of portfolio investment was started in 1992. Initially, secondary equity market was opened up followed by primary equity market. The main reason for this cautious approach was to promote long-term capital in the form of FDI and foreign institutional investment (FII) that will provide enough finance for growth. The flow of short-term capital was restricted since these were the main factors for volatility in other countries during the 1990s. In the case of external commercial borrowings, liberalization was limited, as it required prior approval from the government (Dasgupta, 2014; de Paula, 2008). Capital inflows were relaxed, but tough controls were maintained for capital outflows, especially in the case of residents. Recently, some relaxations were introduced in order to enable Indian companies to invest abroad.
China
Capital account liberalization played a crucial role in achieving economic advancement in China by facilitating the inflows of foreign investment. The rapid growth of Chinese economy since 1978 was due to a gradual approach toward reforms. Prior to 1978, China had a highly controlled exchange rate system with very little foreign capital inflow. The reforms of 1978 included a combination of trade and capital account liberalization (Morrison, 2014; Rawski, 2011; Zhu, 2012). Current account convertibility was completed in 1996. China unified its dual exchange rate system in 1994 and maintained a managed float thereafter. While the controls on inflows and outflows on non-residents were loosened, restrictions were still maintained on the residents (Hansakul, Dyck, & Kern, 2009). The policy followed by China is very flexible. After the Asian financial crisis in 1997, there were large capital flights from the East Asian economies; in order to prevent such flows, China tightened the controls on capital outflows. Even the transactions in the current account were carefully scrutinized. In 2001, China joined WTO and committed for developing a market-oriented eco-nomy. Full capital account convertibility became one of the goals of China’s economic policies.
South Africa
South Africa introduced capital account liberalization after the democratic transition in 1994. After years of international sanctions and isolation, the new government tried to reintegrate the economy into the global one, by gaining greater access to capital which was crucial to increase production and expedite growth. The period before transition is characterized by capital controls and restrictions. The first legislation related to capital controls was the Currency and Exchanges Act of 1933, which was operationalized in the sterling area. The sterling area means those countries that have adopted British Sterling and have their currency or had their currency pegged against British Sterling. South Africa was under the sterling area from 1933 until the mid-1970s (Khumalo & Kapingura, 2014). This Act was mainly enacted to control outflows of capital to countries that were not the part of sterling area. While capital flows among themselves were allowed by the Act. It was amended in 1961 to include new measures to control capital flows. The winds of change toward capital account liberalization began after the elections of 1994. The new government adopted a gradual approach toward capital account liberalization. Restrictions were firstly removed for transactions related to non-res-idents. Later on, current account was liberalized and also restrictions on residents and domestic institutions were gradually removed (Khumalo & Kapingura, 2014). The reforms were started with the unification of dual exchange rate system that was introduced in the 1960s to shield the economy from external fluctuations (Edwards, 2005; Hassan, 2013; Rodrik, 2008).
Literature Review
Several empirical studies have assessed the degree of financial integration among different countries. For instance, Holmes and Pentecost (1999) examined the level of financial integration in the European Union (EU) and found convincing evidence of financial integration among all economies of the EU, except for Great Britain. Hunter (2006) investigated if equity markets of Argentina, Chile, and Mexico have become internationally integrated in the post-liberalization period and reported that these markets were not even appropriately integrated with each other. Lagoarde-Segot and Lucey (2007) studied the capital market integration of Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries and its relations with the EU, the United States, and the regional markets. The results suggested that there was no long-run bi-variate relationship bet-ween each of these markets and the EU, the United States, and the regional markets. Park (2014) found evidences of greater integration of capital markets of emerging economies of Asia after making a detailed theoretical and empirical study on the issue. Chittedi (2010) undertook a study on the integration of the stock markets of the BRICS nations in general and their integration with the developed countries stock markets such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan. The results suggest that there was no cointegration relationship bet-ween BRIC countries and developed world, namely the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Joshi (2013) analyzed the relationship and coin-tegration of stock prices of BRIC countries’ stock markets and found the evidence of strong positive correlation of India’s stock prices with that of Brazil and Russia. Bonga-Bonga (2012) assessed the extent of the transmission of financial shocks between South Africa and other BRICS members during 1996–2012 and found evidence of cross-transmission and dependence between South Africa and Brazil, although the empirical results indicated that South Africa was more affected by crises emanating from China, India, and Russia than other way round. Bellotti and Williams (2010) examined the stock market integration among the BRIC countries by using an asymmetric multivariate GARCH model with time-varying variance–covariance stru-cture to estimate conditional price discovery and volatility transmission processes across Foreign Exchange, domestic, and international stock market price returns in the BRIC countries. The results ind-icated that intra and international financial integ-ration of BRIC markets and international markets was incomplete.
Most of these studies found enhanced level of integration among the stock market of BRICS. However, these studies used the data of stock mar-ket indices of a particular stock exchange of each BRICS country, which did not represent the whole equity market.
Data Sources and Methodology
Data Sources
The study is based on secondary data comprising monthly value-weighted equity market indices of five markets from BRICS. The data have been taken from Morgan Stanley Capital International-Barra (MSCI) in US dollar terms and belong to the period January 2005–December 2014. The index constructed by MSCI is able to capture 85 percent market capitalization of major industries in a country, thus believed to be a good representation of the equity market of a country.
Methodology
The convergence of asset prices of equity markets of BRICS has been estimated with the help of cointegration technique, as suggested by Johansen in 1988 and Johansen and Juselius in 1990, and the vector error correction model (VECM). Before applying Johansen cointegration test, the data have been checked up for the stationarity with the help of augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test as the cointegration technique requires time series data to be integrated of the same order (Dickey & Fuller, 1979; Johansen, 1988).
Johansen Cointegration Test
Long-run relations can be obtained with the help of a procedure suggested by Johansen in 1988 and Johansen and Juselius in 1990.
The equation is as follows:
where Yt is an n × 1 vector (column vector of Brazil, China, India, Russia, and South Africa) of variables that are integrated of the order one (i(1)) and εt are n × 1 vectors of innovation as it is called in cointegration literature or error term which is independently and normally distributed with zero mean and covariance matrix Λ. Π1 –Πp are n × n coefficient matrices and μ is an intercept vector.
Equation (1) is nonstationary or has unit root, and hence it has to be written in first difference form by subtracting both sides of the equation by Yt – 1. By doing so, we get,
where Γ p = –I + Π1 + Π2 + … + Π p and Π = –Γ p .
The matrix Π in Equation (2) is called the impact matrix because it determines the extent to which the system is cointegrated. The matrix shows long-run relationship. Since the above equation is in the first difference form, all the coefficients must be stationary if the variables are cointegrated; thus, Π must be stationary (Johansen & Juselius, 1990).
Johansen (1988) suggested two tests for determining the number of cointegrated equations, namely trace statistics (Jtrace) and maximum eigenvalue statistics (λmax).
where T is the number of sample observations and
This test is also based on the log-likelihood ratio and is conducted sequentially. The name comes from the fact that the test statistic involved is a maximum generalized Eigenvalue. It tests the null hypothesis that the cointegrated rank is equal to r against the alternative that the cointegration rank is equal to r + 1.
Vector Error Correction Model
Once long-run relation is established using the above procedure, the VECM is used to determine the short as well as long-run relationship (Engle & Granger, 1987; Granger, 1988). VECM is a multivariate version of error correction model (ECM) and is used to estimate the short-run disequilibrium, once equilibrium or cointegrating relationship has been established in the long run.
Empirical Result
Results of ADF Test
Results of ADF Test
Results of Cointegration Analysis
Results of Johansen Cointegration Test: Trace Statistics
Results of Johansen Cointegration Test: Max Eigen Statistics
Results of VECM
Results of VECM
Diagnostic Test
Results of Granger Causality Test
Results of Pair-wise Granger Causality Test
Conclusion
The results suggest that there is an overwhelming existence of cointegration among the equity markets of BRICS in the short as well as long run. There is only one cointegrated equation in the system which implies that cointegration among the equity markets does exist, although it is weak, and results of Granger causality test show that there is no causality among market pairs China–Brazil, Russia–Brazil, South Africa–Brazil, Russia–China, and South Africa–India. Therefore, the result reveals that even though the financial integration among the equity markets of BRICS is on an ascendance, still it is far from complete.
The article recommends for further relaxations of restrictions of capital account with a rider that full capital account convertibility should be preceded by strong macroeconomic policies, better institutions, and development of financial markets. It may be noted that the capital account is not fully opened up in any of the BRICS economies except for Russia. Harmonization of laws, regulations, and operations based on internationally acceptable norms, standards, and best practices that will facilitate greater cross-border transactions are also recommended. Appropriate regulatory supervision, however, needs to be ensured at every level so as to minimize the risks associated with the financial integration.
Footnotes
Authors’ Biography
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