Abstract
In his recent editorial, Batty (2020) commented on cities during the interim period characterized by the spread of low or second-wave Coronavirus, before any suitable vaccines might become available and then widely adopted. In this commentary, I would like to focus, albeit briefly so, on the Corona-vaccinated city, which is expected to emerge in 2021, at least for cities in the developed world. Two specific aspects will be addressed here: any possible imprints of the Corona pandemic remaining in cities following its disappearance, coupled with the possible emergence of precautions towards the bursting out of any future virus pandemics.
Both the imprints and precautions relate to several major dimensions of the Coronavirus pandemic, which can be assumed to be relevant for future routine behaviours. First is the global timing appearance of the Coronavirus and its spread. The appearance of the virus was, for the first time, simultaneous worldwide, with a time lag among countries and continents measured only in days or weeks. Second, Nature has reminded us of its potentially global hazardous presence as are other invisible viruses, in comparison to the rather gradual development of crises such as global climate change. Third, cities experienced for the first time, the exclusive operation of virtual mobilities, as compared to the supremacy of physical ones which have dominated cities during pre-modern times, followed by mixed usage of physical and virtual ones which were emerging before the Coronavirus pandemic began. Fourth, the abrupt cessation of routine social and economic activities, enforced by international and local lockdowns, became effective at once, following governmental decisions taken in this regard. Fifth, and finally, the role of uncertainty has increased as compared to that of risk. In their recent book, King and Kay (2020) differentiate between risk and uncertainty in economics: risk is measured quantitatively which is in high usage, whereas the evaluation of uncertainty regarding potential political, social or natural events involves narratives which are much less dominant. This differentiation can be applied to epidemiology as well, in its quantitative measurement of the expected number of casualties at any phase in the spread of the pandemic as risk. The Coronavirus has exposed the role of uncertainty vis-à-vis lockdowns as the only possible ‘cure’ when vaccines are not yet developed. The uncertainty relates to the degree of popular obedience of the population to lockdowns, with changing experiences in this regard amongst many different countries.
These dimensions have brought about numerous changes in individual as well as in governmental activities, implying some fluctuations in the invisible, previously existing, borderlines between activities carried out in physical and virtual spaces, as well as between globally oriented and domestically oriented activities. The hesitation of many people to function and act through the Internet prior to the Corona crisis has had to be overcome by these changing circumstances, and governments have had to cope with new challenges regarding the balance between the domestic and the global, at times of global lockdown. These changes may continue to prevail, fully or partially, in post-Corona cities worldwide. Specifically, these changes lie within the following urban arenas: work, shopping, technological infrastructure, tourism, production and trade, and we will deal with these in turn.
Work
Until the Corona pandemic, the percentages of full-time teleworkers were internationally quite modest, normally reaching only single-digit rates (Kellerman, 2019), though part-time teleworking was becoming ever more popular (Batty, 2020). During the Corona pandemic, many office workers have been able to continue their work, fully or partially, from home, for a period extending for at least two months. This change in work location and habits may continue in the post-Corona city, since the savings in transportation, parking, and office costs, side by side with a cut from the office environment, have been tested by some practical experimentation during the crisis. The growing popularity of teleworking that we have experienced may obviously carry significant changes in commuting pressures, as well as in the nature of business centres. Another impact of Corona is video conferencing which has been widely adopted, and which may possibly continue to be in popular use, so that virtual platforms for workers may replace joint physical ones.
Shopping
Online shopping, coupled with online banking, e-government, e-health and other online urban services were available already before the Coronavirus pandemic began. The growth in online shopping and online banking has brought about the closure of stores and branches, respectively, but most of people’s shopping was still carried out physically (Kellerman, 2019). The increased reliance of clients on online services during the Corona lockdowns has possibly become a routine that may increase the share of online services, as compared to physically supplied ones, thus possibly bringing about additional closures of shopping malls, stores, bank branches, etc. The almost complete lack of international merchandize shipping during this period has strengthened the status of domestic suppliers. This preference for the domestic might possibly be reduced again once global leaders of online shopping such as the US Amazon company and the Chinese Ali Express return to full service.
Technological infrastructure
Information transmission turned out as the only undamaged mobility type during the Corona lockdowns and this has affected local, domestic and international traffic alike. Thus, information transmission flourished during the Corona crisis, with platforms for video business and pleasure group meetings, such as Zoom, Skype, Webex, and the like, becoming extremely popular. The growing use of Internet traffic has created many pressures on infrastructures. It is, thus, expected that 5G (fifth generation) communications for mobile traffic will be much faster installed and adopted, side by side with fibre optic networks. In addition, one may expect that the available platforms for video group conferencing will be upgraded, notably as far as security is concerned.
Tourism
The economic activity that has been hit most by the Corona crisis is tourism, being halted both domestically and internationally. However, since people need some form of escape from the routine of work, pleasure tourism is expected to be restored. However, it will be easier to restore domestic tourism than international, given the international expansion of the Pandemic through people’s international flights. International tourism has become a leading economic sector in many countries, so that it is reasonable to expect that proper procedures will make it possible for tourism to return to previous levels, if a vaccine for Corona is found and then widely adopted. The restored international tourism activity might involve numerous new precautions implemented in airports and airplanes. It seems that automatic temperature checking for travellers and their submission of some health declarations and probably some form of social distancing will be imposed at least for several years. Air-conditioning systems for airplanes will have to become more effective for cabins, and changing seating arrangements may also be required in order to impose distancing, possibly just as a precaution, at least temporarily.
Production and trade
The almost complete cut in international trade during the Corona crisis, given the shutdown of most factories and the cancellation of most flights, may bring about governmental policies for the production of medical supplies domestically, and in the case of future virus crises, this will be coupled with the onshoring of production as well. In addition, governments may also impose wider emergency food accumulations. These trends do not seem to carry any significant urban changes for most cities. The question is, though, whether the globalization of production and trade will gradually return to the pre-Corona rather extensive levels, bringing about a ranking of cities by their levels of global activity in finances, harbour and airport sizes, touristic attractivity, and the like (Kellerman, 2020). The infrastructures for global human, material and information exchanges are still there, and the necessary organs for their operations still available. Thus, it will probably be more of a political question rather than an economic one, in terms of which level will restored globalization reach, and this is also mainly in the light of the American–Chinese conflict.
In summary, then, the post-Corona city will not be a revolutionized one, compared to the pre-Corona one. The most important change will actually constitute a wider move of activities to virtual channels, which on their part may bring about changes in urban land-uses. Commerce and services will become less prominent in urban landscapes, but it is still too early to speculate on the alternative land-uses which may possibly replace them.
Footnotes
Declaration of conflicting interests
The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Funding
The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.