Conflicting Notions of a Project: The Battle Between Albert O. Hirschman and Bent Flyvbjerg

Abstract

The field of project management has erected an impressive edifice of knowledge that apparently hinders us in learning anything from experience except what we already know. We will use the recent controversy between Hirschman and Flyvbjerg to trace this academic imposition to a narrow notion of a project and to find inspiration in a radically different notion for opening the field to new types of issues and lessons.

Keywords

Hiding Hand Providential Ignorance practical judgment project notions project success

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Adelman

. (2013). Worldly philosopher: The odyssey of Albert O. Hirschman. Princeton University Press.

Alacevich

. (2014). Visualizing uncertainties, or how Albert Hirschman and the World Bank disagreed on project appraisal and what this says about the end of “high development theory”. Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 36(2), 137–168.doi:10.1017/S1053837214000194

Brandes

. (2010). Nietzsche, Arendt, and the promise of the future. Animus. The Canadian Journal of Philosophy and Humanities, 14, 16–29.

Brunsson

. (1985). The irrational organization: Irrationality as a basis for organizational action and change. Wiley.

Buchan

Simpson

. (2020). Projects-as-practice: A Deweyan perspective. Project Management Journal, 51(1), 38–48.

Cicmil

Braddon

. (2012). Fading glory? Decision-making around the project—How and why glory projects fail. In Williams

T. M.

Samset

(Eds.), Project governance (pp. 221–254). Palgrave Macmillan.

Cicmil

Hodgson

. (2006). Making projects critical: An introduction. In Hodgson

Cicmil

(Eds.), Making projects critical (pp. 1–25). Palgrave Macmillan.

Davies

. (2017). Projects. A very short introduction. Oxford University Press.

Dewey

. (1915). The logic of judgments of practise. The Journal of Philosophy, Psychology and Scientific Methods, 12(19), 505–523.doi:10.2307/2012995

10.

Drouin

Müller

Sankaran

. (Eds.). (2013). Novel approaches to organizational project management research: Translational and transformational. CBS Press.

11.

Elster

. (2016). Sour grapes. Cambridge University Press.

12.

Flyvbjerg

. (2003). Delusions of success: Comment on Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman. Harvard Business Review, 81(12), 121–122.

13.

Flyvbjerg

. (2011). Over budget, over time, over and over again: Managing major projects. In Morris

P. W. G.

Pinto

J. K.

Söderlund

(Eds.), The Oxford handbook of project management (pp. 321–344). Oxford University Press.

14.

Flyvbjerg

. (2016a). The fallacy of beneficial ignorance: A test of Hirschman’s hiding hand. World Development, 84, 176–189.doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.03.012

15.

Flyvbjerg

. (2016b). What is theory? What’s not? LinkedIn blog.

16.

Flyvbjerg

. (2017a). Did megaproject research pioneer behavioral economics? The case of Albert O. Hirschman. In Flyvbjerg

(Ed.), The Oxford handbook of megaproject management (pp. 155–193). Oxford University Press.

17.

Flyvbjerg

. (2017b). Introduction. The iron law of megaproject management. In Flyvbjerg

(Ed.), The Oxford handbook of megaproject management (pp. 1–18). Oxford University Press.

18.

Flyvbjerg

. (2018). Planning fallacy or hiding hand: Which is the better explanation? World Development, 103, 383–386.doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.10.002

19.

Flyvbjerg

Ansar

Budzier

Buhl

Cantarelli

Garbuio

van Wee

. (2018). Five things you should know about cost overrun. Transportation Research Part A, 118, 174–190.

20.

Flyvbjerg

Ansar

Budzier

Buhl

Cantarelli

Garbuio

van Wee

. (2019). On de-bunking “Fake News” in the post-truth era: How to reduce statistical error in research. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 126, 409–411.

21.

Flyvbjerg

Holm

M. S.

Buhl

. (2002). Underestimating costs in public works projects: Error or lie? Journal of the American Planning Association, 68(3), 279–295.doi:10.1080/01944360208976273

22.

Flyvbjerg

Sunstein

C. R

. (2016). The principle of the malevolent hiding hand; or, the planning fallacy writ large. Social Research, 83(4), 979–1004.

23.

Geraldi

Söderlund

. (2018). Project studies: What it is, where it is going. International Journal of Project Management, 36(1), 55–70.doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2017.06.004

24.

Gladwell

. (2013, June 24). The gift of doubt: Albert O. Hirschman and the power of failure. The New Yorker.

25.

Hirschman

A. O

. (1995). A propensity to self-subversion. Harvard University Press.

26.

Hirschman

A. O

. (2001). Crossing boundaries. Selected writings. Zone Books.

27.

Hirschman

A. O

. (2013). Political economics and possibilism. In Adelman

(Ed.), The essential Hirschman (pp. 1–34). Princeton University Press.

28.

Hirschman

A. O

. (2014). Development projects observed. The Brookings Institution.

29.

Hodgson

Cicmil

. (Eds.). (2006). Making projects critical. Palgrave Macmillan.

30.

Ika

L. A

. (2009). Project success as a topic in project management journals. Project Management Journal, 40(4), 6–19.doi:10.1002/pmj.20137

31.

Ika

L. A

. (2018). Beneficial or detrimental ignorance: The straw man fallacy of Flyvbjerg’s test of Hirschman’s hiding hand. World Development, 103, 369–382.doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.10.016

32.

Ika

L. A.

Söderlund

. (2016). Rethinking revisited: Insights from an early rethinker. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, 9(4), 931–954.doi:10.1108/IJMPB-05-2016-0041

33.

Kahneman

Tversky

. (1979). Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures. TIMS Studies in the Management Sciences, 12, 313–327.

34.

Kreiner

. (2014). Restoring project success as phenomenon. In Lundin

R. A.

Hällgreen

(Eds.), Advancing research on projects and temporary organizations (pp. 19–38). Copenhagen Business School Press & Liber.

35.

Kreiner

. (2017). The competition between creativity and legitimacy. In Silberberger

Strebel

(Eds.), Architectural competitions and the building process (pp. 45–58). Routledge.

36.

Kreiner

. (in press). Pick the winner, so you can then choose the reasons: Epistemic dissonance in architecture competitions. In Stark

(Ed.), The performance complex: Competitions and valuations in social life. Oxford University Press.

37.

Lepenies

P. H

. (2018). Statistical tests as a hindrance to understanding: What the controversy around the “Hiding Hand” reveals about research in the social sciences and conceals about project management. World Development, 103, 360–365.

38.

Lindblom

C. E

. (1959). The science of “muddling through.” Public Administration Review, 19(2), 79–88.doi:10.2307/973677

39.

Loasby

B. J

. (2000). How do we know? In Earl

P. E.

Frowen

S. F.

(Eds.), Economics as the art of thought: Essays in memory of G. L. S. Shackle (pp. 1–24). Routledge.

40.

Lovallo

Kahneman

. (2003). Delusions of success. How optimism undermines executives’ decisions. Harvard Business Review, 81(7), 56–63.http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12858711

41.

Love

P. E. D.

Ahiaga-Dagbui

D. D

. (2018). Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 113, 357–368.doi:10.1016/j.tra.2018.04.019

42.

Love

P. E. D.

Ika

L. A.

Ahiaga-Dagbui

D. D

. (2019). On de-bunking ‘fake news’ in a post truth era: Why does the Planning Fallacy explanation for cost overruns fall short? Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 126, 397–408.doi:10.1016/j.tra.2019.06.013

43.

Love

P. E. D.

Sing

M. C. P.

Ika

L. A.

Newton

. (2019). The cost performance of transportation projects: The fallacy of the planning fallacy account. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 122, 1–20.doi:10.1016/j.tra.2019.02.004

44.

Lundin

R. A.

Hällgreen

. (Eds.). (2014). Advancing research on projects and temporary organizations. Copenhagen Business School Press & Liber.

45.

Lundin

R. A.

Midler

. (Eds.). (1998). Projects as arenas for renewal and learning processes. Kluwer Academic.

46.

Lundin

R. A.

Söderholm

. (1998). Conceptualizing a projectified society—Discussion of an eco-institutional approach to a theory on temporary organizations. In Lundin

R. A.

Midler

(Eds.), Projects as arenas for renewal and learning processes. Kluwer Academic.

47.

March

J. G

. (1994). A primer on decision making: How decisions happen. Free Press.

48.

March

J. G

. (1999). Science, politics and Mrs. Gruenberg. In The pursuit of organizational intelligence (pp. 355–362). Blackwell.

49.

Midler

. (1995). “Projectification” of the firm: The Renault case. Scandinavian Journal of Management, 11(4), 363–375.doi:10.1016/0956-5221(95)00035-T

50.

Morson

G. S

. (2013). Prosaics and other provocations: Empathy, open time, and the novel. Academic Studies Press.

51.

Mouritsen

Kreiner

. (2016). Accounting, decisions and promises. Accounting, Organizations and Society, 49, 21–31.doi:10.1016/j.aos.2016.02.002

52.

Offe

. (2013). Getting ahead by trespassing—Jeremy Adelman, worldly philosopher. The odyssey of Albert O. Hirschman (Princeton, Princeton University Press 2013). European Journal of Sociology, 54(3), 583–591.doi:10.1017/S0003975613000453

53.

Offe

Wiesenthal

. (1980). Two logics of collective action: Theoretical notes on social class and organizational form. Political Power and Social Theory, 1, 67–115.

54.

O’Driscoll

G. P.

Rizzo

M. J

. (1996/1985). The economics of time and ignorance. Routledge.

55.

Revellino

Mouritsen

. (2017). Knotting the net: From ‘design by deception’ to an object oriented politics. International Journal of Project Management, 35(3), 296–306.doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.10.006

56.

Room

. (2018). The hiding hand: A rejoinder to Flyvbjerg on Hirschman. World Development, 103, 366–368.doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.10.015

57.

Rosenzweig

. (2014). The Halo effect—and the eight other business delusions that deceive managers (2nd ed.). Simon & Schuster.

58.

Ryle

. (1949/2000a). The concept of mind. Penguin Classics.

59.

Ryle

. (2000b). Courses of action or the uncatchableness of mental acts. Philosophy, 75(3), 331–344.doi:10.1017/S0031819100000437

60.

Schelling

T. C

. (1978). Micromotives and macrobehavior. W.W. Norton & Company.

61.

Schelling

T. C

. (2006). Strategies of commitment and other essays. Harvard University Press.

62.

Schön

D. A

. (1994). Hirschman’s elusive theory of social learning. In Rodwin

Schön

D. A.

(Eds.), Rethinking the development experience: Essays provoked by the work of Albert O. Hirschman (pp. 67–95). The Brookings Institution Press.

63.

Schutz

. (1973). Collected papers I: The problem of social reality (4th ed.). Martinus Nijhoff.

64.

Sergi

Crevani

Aubry

. (2020). Process studies of project organizing. Project Management Journal, 51(1), 3–10.doi:10.1177/8756972819896482

65.

Thaler

R. H

. (1992). The winner’s curse: Paradoxes and anomalies of economic life. Princeton University Press.

66.

Winch

Kreiner

. (2011). Building not dwelling: Purposive managerial action in an uncertain world. Paper presented at the British Academy of Management, 2011, Aston University, Birmingham, UK.

67.

Winch

G. M

. (2013). Escalation in major projects: Lessons from the channel fixed link. International Journal of Project Management, 31(5), 724–734.doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.01.012

68.

Yourdon

. (2004). Death march (2nd ed.). Prentice Hall Professional Technical Reference.