A Probe into the Seismic History of Athens,Greece from the Current State of a Classical Monument

Based on the current deformation of a column of the temple of Olympios Zeus (Olympieion) in Athens, Greece, a backward analysis is performed in an effort to investigate the seismic history of the area during the last 2,000 years that the monument has been standing. The analysis inevitably contains many ambiguities, due to the nonlinearity and sensitivity of the seismic response, and the unknown geometry of the structure during each era of its life. In spite of these drawbacks, conclusions can be drawn; these, however, should be verified by similar analyses of other nearby monuments. The results show that the present state of the monument could be the result of: many medium-size, typical, near-field earthquakes with a PGV around 30 cm/s and with an average return period of about 250 years; or a smaller number of stronger earthquakes with a PGV around 50 cm/s and a return period of about 500 years; or a single event with a PGV up to 100 cm/s. It seems unlikely that earthquakes containing pulses of long periods (greater than 1.2 sec) have occurred.