Climate Change Impacts on the Stability of Small Tidal Inlets: A Numerical Modelling Study Using the Realistic Analogue Approach

Abstract

Tidal inlets are of great societal importance as they are often associated with ports and harbours, industry, tourism, recreation and prime waterfront real estate. Their behaviour is governed by the delicate balance of oceanic processes (tides, waves and mean sea level), and fluvial/estuarine processes (riverflow and heat fluxes), all of which can be significantly affected by climate change (CC) processes. This study investigates the potential range of CC impacts on the stability (closed/open state and locational stability) via the application of a sophisticated process based morphodynamic model (Delft3D) to strategically selected schematized inlet morphologies and forcing conditions. Results show that, under worst case scenario conditions, the integrated effect of climate change driven increase in mean sea level, wave height and wave angle may significantly change inlet stability condition.

Keywords

Climate change Tidal inlet Sea Level Rise Delft3D

References

Bruun

(1962), Sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion, Journal of Waterways Harbors Division, 88, pp. 117–130.

Aubrey

D. G.

and Weishar

(Editors) (1988), Hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics of tidal inlets, Lecture Notes on Coastal and Estuarine Studies, 29, Springer-Verlag, New York.

Behrens

D. C.

(2008), Inlet Closure and Morphological Behavior in a Northern California Estuary: The Case of the Russian River, MSc thesis, University of California, Davis.

Bruun

and Gerritsen

(1960), Stability of Coastal Inlets, North-Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam.

Dissanayake

D. M. P. K.

Ranasinghe

, and Roelvink

J. A.

(2009), Effect of sea level rise on tidal inlet evolution, Journal of Coastal Research, SI 56, Vol. 2, pp. 942–946.

Dissanayake

D. M. P. K.

Ranasinghe

, and Roelvink

J. A.

(2011), The morphological response of large tidal inlet/basin systems to relative sea level rise, Climatic Change (in press).

Escoffier

F. F.

(1940), The stability of tidal inlets, Shore and Beach, 8, pp. 111–114.

Kjerfve

(1994), Coastal Lagoon Processes. In: Kjerfve

, (Editor), Coastal Lagoon Processes, Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam, pp. 1–8.

Lam

N. T.

(2009), Hydrodynamics and morphodynamics of a seasonally forced tidal inlet system, Ph.D. Thesis, Delft University of Technology.

10.

Lesser

G. R.

Roelvink

J. A.

van Kester

J. A. T. M.

and Stelling

G. S.

(2004), Development and validation of a three-dimensional morphological model, Coastal Engineering, 51(8–9), pp. 883–915, Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.

11.

Nicholls

R. J.

Wong

P. P.

Burkett

V. R.

Codignotto

J. O.

Hay

J. E.

McLean

R. F.

Ragoonaden

and Woodroffe

C. D.

(2007), Coastal systems and low-lying areas, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Parry

M.L.

Canziani

O.F.

Palutikof

J.P.

van der Linden

P.J.

and Hanson

C.E.

, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 315–356.

12.

O'Brien

M. P.

(1931), Estuary Tidal Prisms Related to Entrance Areas, Civil Engineering, 1(8), pp. 738–739.

13.

Prandle

(1992), Dynamics and Exchanges in Estuaries and the Coastal Zone, American Geophysical Union, Washington.

14.

Ranasinghe

Pattiaratchi

and Masselink

(1999), A morphodynamic model to simulate the seasonal closure of tidal inlets. Coastal Engineering, 37(1), pp. 1–36, Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.

15.

Ranasinghe

Bosboom

Uhlenbrook

Roelvink

Ngo

, and Stive

M. J. F.

(2011), A scale aggregated model to estimate climate change driven coastline change along inlet interrupted coasts, Proceedings of Coastal Sediments 2011, Miami, FL, USA, pp. 286–298

16.

Stive

M. J. F.

van de Kreeke

Lam

N. T.

Tung

T. T.

and Ranasinghe

(2009), Empirical relationships between tidal inlet cross section and tidal prism: A review, Proceedings of Coastal Dynamics 2009, World Scientific (CD Rom).

17.

Jarrett

J. T.

(1976), Tidal Prism – Inlet Area Relationships. Technical Report GITI No.3, CERC, U.S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station, Vicksburg, MS.

18.

Van de Kreeke

(1990b), Stability analysis of a two-inlet bay system, Coastal Engineering, 14(6), pp. 481–497.