Agricultural Prices,The International Economy,and Development in Kenya,1964–1988: A Time-Series Analysis

With few exceptions, the growing literature on agricultural underdevelopment in Africa has two major deficiencies. First, many scholars are guided by either an “internalist” or “externalist” theoretical and policy orientation. Second, although many studies use descriptive data to support their arguments, few utilize formal quantitative techniques to test competing theories. By contrast, we apply several different theoretical perspectives to Kenyan development and then test them via time-series analysis. The quantitative analysis reveals a series of rich findings: (1) agricultural prices have a positive effect on coffee production, food production, and economic output; (2) coffee exports have a positive effect on total agricultural output but a negative effect on food production and overall economic output; (3) “finished” imports (e.g., machinery) have a positive effect on industrial output but a negative effect on agricultural output, coffee production, and total economic output.