The purpose of this study was to examine the ability of 11 variables to predict performance achievement, teacher rating of musical achievement and progress, and retention of beginning instrumentalists. The study involved 205 fifth-grade beginning instrumental music students and consisted of data collection, student instruction, and achievement assessment. At the conclusion of 7 months of instruction, student performance achievement was evaluated by three independent judges, teacher rating of student progress was obtained, and student retention was tabulated. Results indicate that scholastic ability, reading achievement, and math achievement had the strongest relationship to both adjudicator and teacher ratings of student performance achievement. Student retention was best predicted by socioeconomic status, self-concept in music, reading achievement, math achievement, and scholastic ability. The five variables predicted retention with 97% accuracy.
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