Predicting Music Theory Grades: The Relative Efficiency of Academic Ability,Music Experience,and Musical Aptitude

Abstract

Multiple regression techniques were used to analyze the relative contributions of academic ability, music experience, and musical aptitude in predicting grades in first- and second-semester freshman music theory courses. The best predictor of grades in both courses was the math component of the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT). For the first-semester course, high school grade point average, the incidence of piano study, and scores on the verbal portion of the SAT were also statistically significant predictors. Together, the four predictors accounted for 41% of the variation in theory grades. For the second-semester course, principal instrument was also statistically significant in the prediction of grades, and the incidence of experience on more than one instrument was marginally significant. A principal components analysis of the first-semester data produced five factors that accounted for 78.6% of the variance in the original variables: (1) academic and musical ability, (2) piano experience, (3) years of performing experience, (4) performance on more than one instrument, and (5) musical aptitude.

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