The Misalignment of the United States Dollar and the Japanese Yen: The Problem and its Solution

These data are on an f.o.b. Balance of Payments basis. During the first four months of 1984, the U.S. deficit on non-petroleum merchandise trade ran at an annual rate of $55 billion.

During the first four months of 1984, the U.S. current account balance widened to $85 billion a year.

September 15, 1983. The rate on July 18, 1984 by remarkable coincidence was also 244 yen to the dollar.

During the first four months of 1984, the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with Japan (c.i.f. basis) rose to $30 billion a year.

It is estimated that net borrowing by the U. S., in 1984 alone, will be around $85 billion, an amount almost equal to Brazil's total net foreign debt at the end of 1983.

Between June, 1983 and June, 1984, both the U.S. and Japan performed well on inflation—but Japan performed better. The CPI in the U. S. rose by 4.2 percent against an increase of 2.0 percent for Japan. The U.S. producer price index rose 212 percent, in Japan this index fell 0.4 percent.

The original paper on which the present article is based contains a lengthier description of Japanese Capital Market Controls.

Bronte S. , Japanese Finance: Markets and Institutions (Euromoney Publication, 1982).

“Chronic” would be a far more suitable word than “permanent,” but it has lost its original meaning.

Shultz , Japan and America, U.S. Dept. of State, Bureau of Public Affairs Current Policy No. 506. The misalignment between the yen and the dollar also raises the price of imports into Japan because well over 90 percent of Japanese imports are financed in dollars. Thus, a strengthening of the yen will dampen inflationary pressures in Japan.

The Current State of and Outlook for Financial Liberalization, Subcommittee for Investigating Financial Systems, Japanese Ministry of Finance, first interim report, April 20, 1983, p. 5.

The Washington Post, September 10, 1983, p. C-1.

Ibid., p. C-2.

The Washington Post, September 6, 1983, p. D-12.

Abbegglen James , a noted expert on the Japanese economy, recently concluded: “The United States is pushing against the wrong door by emphasizing trade barriers as the cause of the current trade imbalance. For the principle cause of the payments imbalance appears to be Japan's closed capital market, rather than alleged barriers to merchandise trade.” See, Abegglen James , “The Final Trade Barrier: The Price of Money,” in Thinking in Writing, The Boston Consulting Group, Vol. II, No. 30, (March 1, 1983), p. 1.