Multilevel Performance Probability: A Meta-Analytic Integration of Expectancy and Self-Efficacy

Abstract

A meta-analysis of one approach to measuring expectancy and self-efficacy was conducted. Although used for over 25 years, this measure has yet to be named or integrated across the two theoretical domains. We proposed to label this measure a Multilevel Performance Probability and conducted a meta-analysis. The search for empirical tests of expectancy and self-efficacy using this procedure yielded 16 studies with ratings which could be subjected to meta-analysis. Five studies with 8 tests were taken from expectancy studies and 11 studies with 47 tests from studies of self-efficacy. In total, the analyses involved 7,444 subjects across 55 tests of the Multilevel Performance Probability to performance relationship. Examination of the measure as a predictor of performance gave a mean r of .51 (p < .001) which is in the same direction and larger than values from other meta-analyses conducted within each of the two theoretical domains (rs of .21 and .38).

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Bandura

(1977) Social learning theory. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

Bandura

(1997) Self-efficacy: the exercise of control. New York: Freeman.

Bandura

Jourden

F. J.

(1991) Self-regulatory mechanisms governing the impact of social comparison on complex decision making. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 60, 941–951.

Cady

S. H.

Perrewe

P. L.

Gist

M. E.

(1997) Resurrecting expectancy theory. Academy of Management 1997 Proceedings, 710.

Campbell

J. P.

Dunnette

M. D.

Lawler

E. E.

Weick

K. E.

Jr. (1970) Managerial behavior, performance, and effectiveness. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Campbell

J. P.

Pritchard

R. D.

(1976) Motivation theory in industrial organizational psychology. In Dunnette

M. D.

(Ed.), Handbook of industrial and organizational psychology. Chicago, IL: Rand McNally. Pp. 63–130.

Cohen

(1977) Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences. New York: Academic Press.

Cook

T. D.

Campbell

D. T.

(1979) Quasi-experimentation: design and analysis issues for field settings. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.

Dachler

H. P.

Mobley

W. H.

(1973) Construct validation of an instrumentality-expectancy-task-goal model of work motivation. Journal of Applied Psychology, 58, 397–418.

10.

Earley

P. C.

(1994) Self or group? Cultural effects of training on self-efficacy and performance. Administrative Science Quarterly, 39, 89–117.

11.

Eyring

J. D.

Johnson

D. S.

Francis

D. J.

(1993) A cross-level units-of-analysis approach to individual differences in skill acquisition. Journal of Applied Psychology, 78, 805–814.

12.

Galbraith

Cummings

L. L.

(1967) An empirical investigation of the motivational determinants of task performance: interactive effects between instrumentality-valence and motivation-ability. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 2, 237–257.

13.

Garland

(1985) Relation of effort-performance expectancy to performance in goal setting experiments. Journal of Applied Psychology, 69, 79–84.

14.

Gellatly

I. R.

(1996) Conscientiousness and task performance: test of a cognitive process model. Journal of Applied Psychology, 81, 474–482.

15.

Gist

M. E.

(1989) The influence of training method on self-efficacy and idea generation among manager. Personnel Psychology, 42, 787–805.

16.

Gist

M. E.

Schwoerer

Rosen

(1989) Effects of alternative training methods on self-efficacy and performance in computer software training. Journal of Applied Psychology, 74, 884–891.

17.

Graen

(1969) Instrumentality theory of work motivation: some experimental results and suggested modifications. Journal of Applied Psychology Monograph, 53, 1–25.

18.

Hedges

L. V.

Olkin

(1985) Statistical methods for meta-analysis. San Diego, CA: Academic Press.

19.

Hunter

J. E.

Schmidt

F. L.

Jackson

G. B.

(1982) Meta-analysis: cumulating research findings across studies. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.

20.

Johnson

B. T.

Mullen

Salas

(1995) Comparison of three major meta-analytic approaches. Journal of Applied Psychology, 80, 94–106.

21.

Kanfer

(1990) Motivation theory and industrial and organizational psychology. Palo Alto, CA: Consulting Psychologists Press.

22.

Kirsch

(1985) Self-efficacy and expectancy: old wine with new labels. Journal of Social Psychology, 49, 824–830.

23.

Klien

H. J.

(1991) Further evidence on the relationship between goal setting and expectancy theories. Organization Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 49, 230–257.

24.

Kovenklioglu

Greenhaus

J. H.

(1978) Causal attributions, expectations, and task performance. Journal of Applied Psychology, 63, 698–705.

25.

Latham

G. P.

Seijts

G. H.

(1999) The effects of proximal and distal goals on performance on a moderately complex task. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 20, 421–429.

26.

Latham

G. P.

Winters

D. C.

Locke

E. A.

(1994) Cognitive and motivational effects of participation: a mediator study. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 15, 49–63.

27.

Locke

E. A.

Frederick

Lee

Bobko

(1984) Effects of self-efficacy, goals, and task strategies on task performance. Journal of Applied Psychology, 69, 241–251.

28.

Matsui

Okada

Mizuguchi

(1981) Expectancy theory prediction of the goal theory postulate “harder the goals, the higher the performance”. Journal of Applied Psychology, 66, 54–58.

29.

Meyer

J. P.

Gellatly

I. R.

(1988) Perceived performance norm as a mediator in the effect of assigned goal on personal goal and task performance. Journal of Applied Psychology, 73, 410–420.

30.

Mitchell

T. R.

Hooper

Daniels

George-Falvey

James

(1994) Predicting self-efficacy and performance during skill acquisition. Journal of Applied Psychology, 79, 506–517.

31.

Mone

M. A.

(1994) Comparative validity of two measures of self-efficacy in predicting academic goals and performance. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 54, 516–529.

32.

Mone

M. A.

Baker

D. D.

(1992) A social-cognitive, attributional model of personal goals: an empirical evaluation. Motivation and Emotion, 16, 297–321.

33.

Mullen

(1989) Advanced BASIC meta-analysis. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

34.

Multon

K. D.

Brown

S. D.

Lent

R. W.

(1991) Relation of self-efficacy beliefs to academic outcomes: a meta-analytic investigation. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 38, 30–38.

35.

Palenzuela

D. L.

(1987) The expectancy construct within the social learning theories of Rotter and Bandura: a reply to Kirsch's approach. Journal of Social Behavior and Personality, 2, 437–452.

36.

Peters

L. H.

(1977) Cognitive models of motivation, expectancy theory and effort–an analysis and empirical test. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20, 129–148.

37.

Porter

L. W.

Lawler

E. E.

(1968) Managerial attitudes and performance. Homewood, IL: Dorsey.

38.

Rosenthal

Mullen

(1985) BASIC meta-analysis: procedures and programs. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

39.

Rosenthal

Rubin

(1978) Interpersonal expectancy effects: the first 345 studies. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 3, 377–415.

40.

Rotter

J. B.

(1954) Social learning and clinical psychology. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

41.

Shea

C. M.

(1999) The effect of leadership style on performance improvement on a manufacturing task. Journal of Business, 72, 407–422.

42.

Silver

W. S.

Mitchell

T. R.

Gist

M. E.

(1995) Responses to successful and unsuccessful performance: the moderating effect of self-efficacy on the relationship between performance and attributions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 62, 286–299.

43.

Stajkovic

A. D.

Luthans

(1998) Self-efficacy and work-related performance: a meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 124, 240–261.

44.

Streiner

D. L.

Norman

G. R.

(1989) Health measurement scales: a practical guide to their development and use. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univer. Press.

45.

Tolman

E. C.

(1932) Purposive behavior in animals and men. New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts.

46.

Tubbs

M. E.

Boehne

D. M.

Dahl

J. G.

(1993) Expectancy, valence, and motivational force functions in goal-setting research: an empirical test. Journal of Applied Psychology, 78, 361–373.

47.

Van Eerde

Thierry

(1996) Vroom's expectancy models and work-related criteria: a meta-analysis, Journal of Applied Psychology, 81, 575–586.

48.

Vroom

V. H.

(1964) Work and motivation. New York: Wiley.