Abstract
Reason Enough to Hope: America and the World of the Twenty-first Century By Philip Morrison and Kosta Tsipis, MIT Press, 1998, 288 pages; $25.00
Kosta Tsipis and Philip Morrison, physicists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with extensive experience in arms control issues, have long made the case that nonproliferation policy should pay more attention to the issues that drive demand for weapons. In “Arming for Peace,” published in the March/April 1994 Bulletin, they argued that “the main focus of international attention must move beyond the symptoms of weapons proliferation to its causes. It may seem easier to control supply, yet it is demand that raises the tide of proliferation.”
“Would you folks mind if I told my friends I was adopted?”
In Reason to Hope, Tsipis and Morrison expand their argument. Although the risks of nuclear war have receded, they argue, the underlying causes of conflict remain. They outline two longrange policy goals to remedy the problems of underdevelopment, regional instability, and environmental degradation: the development of a system of “common security” based on a community of states that share similar security concerns; and the establishment of an international program of “common development,” which would be achieved by limiting world military expenditures and transferring hard currency from wealthy to impoverished countries.
Tsipis and Morrison give considerable attention to the U.S. military and the various steps the United States needs to take to bring about positive change in the next century. They contend that by significantly reducing its military expenditures, the United States could lessen the possibility of nuclear and conventional war, and free up funds for development efforts in poorer nations.
Reduction in the size of the U.S. military would be made possible, they argue, by the establishment of the “common security” regime. “The fact that the United States will fight with and never against our Common Security allies,” they argue, would be “decisive in setting the sizes of both U.S. and Common Security forces.” And, “Savings from world security expenses under Common Security could enable a modest but strategic down payment on meeting primary needs … by raising transfers to the poorer lands threefold or more.”
The authors cite two specific trends as reasons for hope: the “recent retreat of nuclear weapons, and the start of a steady decline in the rate of increase of the global population.” With the “population explosion” behind us and the threat of nuclear war diminishing, they argue, humanity should be able to better focus its resources on the problems of underdevelopment and environmental destruction.
“The optimistic message of this book stands on a simple recognition. The fundamental parameters governing the outlook for humanity's future in terms of energy, war, food, and population are hopeful. … [We] conclude that within these objective boundaries economic, security, and social policies can lead to a peaceful and stable world.”