Abstract
Without a doubt, the most unusual contingency plan prepared by the Pentagon is the “Red Integrated Strategic Offensive Plan,” or RISOP—”a detailed hypothetical, but plausible, plan of how Russia could attack the West.”
Planners at stratcom headquarters in Omaha, in a small office called J535 in the Plans and Policy Directorate, pull out all the stops imagining how the Russians could achieve their greatest success in obliterating the United States in a nuclear war.
The risop, sources in the Joint Staff say, is a key document in assessing the sufficiency of U.S. nuclear forces. U.S. planners pit it directly against the U.S. nuclear plan, the “Single Integrated Operational Plan” (siop), to assess what would happen in a nuclear war.
Russia might not be “Red” anymore, but that hasn't stopped the risop. A Cold War artifact, it is still a requirement of the “presidential guidance” to nuclear warriors. And you'll be glad to know it's recently been “improved.”
Poor Saint Helena. According to risop planners, that volcanic island in the south Atlantic Ocean, midway between South America and Africa, is going to be nuked by Russia.
Mostly known as the location of Napoleon Bonaparte's exile, Saint Helena has no discernable military facilities. Yet it is one of 35 countries and territories stratcom planners have designated as Russian nuclear targets in the current risop, according to a 1999 stratcom briefing.
My sources tell me it is actually Ascension Island, 600 miles to the north of the main island of Saint Helena (and a part of the same British territory), that is earmarked to receive the warhead. Ascension joins Antigua, Bermuda, Gibraltar, Seychelles, Midway, and Wake Island as Russian targets, risop planners say. The list includes the 16 pre-expansion nato members (including little Luxembourg), five U.S. territories including Puerto Rico and Guam, as well as U.S. allies and military hosts like Australia and South Korea.
Stratcom believes, based on information about Russian forces and strategy provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, that these 35 so-called “Blue/Gray” countries would be nuked in a Russian attack. Prideful non-nuclear nations such as Iceland, Japan, Denmark, and Norway may be surprised to know that they are assessed to be targets as well. And there are a couple of stand-outs in Singapore and Saudi Arabia, who hardly advertise their American military connections and might be aghast to know the cost.
But why Saudi Arabia and not Kuwait or Bahrain, which also host U.S. forces? And why is Panama, now without much U.S. activity, listed? The new risop is, I'm told, STRATCOM's first real crack at a modern-day Russian plan. Before 1998, the plan was compiled by the Joint Staff.
“Determining the consequences of execution is a critical part of the planning process,” says a stratcom document. National guidance requires two specific areas to be assessed: the impact of a U.S. strike on the civilian populace in Russia and other countries, and the effectiveness of the siop in comparison to Russia's anticipated plan.
In the twisted world of nuclear warfare, directives to “minimize” civilian casualties, even in an all-out nuclear war, are taken deadly seriously by the planners. The Census Bureau (yes, the Census Bureau) provides specialized data to stratcom on the population of 142 Red, Blue/Gray, and other countries of the world. One of the improvements stratcom is making to the risop, according to the 1999 briefing, is the incorporation of new population estimates, which will allow almost real-time updating between formal census cycles. For instance, says stratcom, potential target Saudi Arabia has had a 235 percent change in population in a 12-year time period.
The risop is a hypothetical scenario, stratcom says, but maybe not the most probable scenario. The command says it has the tools to model more likely nuclear wars. And it is particularly proud that it is increasing the fidelity of population data to more accurately gauge the effects of smaller-scale strikes.
“Smaller strikes” no doubt would be a relief to actual Russian planners who, with their decaying and unready nuclear force, could hardly come up with all of the warheads needed to cover the ambitious fantasies of the American risop.