Abstract
France
On February 22 and 23, 1996, President Jacques Chirac announced several reforms of the armed forces to be undertaken between 1997 and 2002. Chirac's decisions in the nuclear area combined the withdrawal of several obsolete systems with a commitment to modernize those that remained.
In February 1996, Chirac announced that the S3D intermediate-range missile would be retired without replacement. On September 16, 1996, all 18 missiles on the Plateau d'Albion were deactivated. Two years and $77.5 million later, the silos and complex were fully dismantled.
The Pacific test facilities at Mururoa and Fangataufa have also been dismantled. France ceased producing weapons plutonium in 1992 and highly enriched uranium in 1996. In 1998, it began to dismantle the Marcoule reprocessing plant and the Pierrelatte enrichment facility.
Three squadrons of Mirage 2000N have now assumed a “strategic” role in addition to their “pre-strategic” one. A fourth Mirage 2000N squadron at Nancy—now conventional—is scheduled to be replaced by Mirage 2000Ds. The squadron may be modified to carry the Air-Sol-Moyenne Porté (ASMP) supersonic missile, with the aircraft distributed to the three 2000N squadrons at Luxeuil and Istres, along with 18 ASMP missiles once deployed with Mirage IVPs. We estimate that nearly 100 ASMP missiles were built, and 80 warheads produced for them. In his February 1996 speech, Chirac said that France would develop a longer-range ASMP, sometimes called the “ASMP Plus” (with a 500- rather than 300-kilometer range). It is expected to enter service in about 10 years.
The Rafale will be France's multipurpose navy and air force fighter/bomber for the twenty-first century. Its roles include conventional ground attack, air defense, air superiority, and nuclear delivery of the ASMP and/or ASMP Plus. The carrier-based navy version will be introduced first, with the air force Rafale D acquiring a nuclear strike role, possibly by 2005. The air force still plans to buy a total of 234 Rafales.
FRENCH NUCLEAR FORCES, 2000
France currently has only one aircraft carrier in service, the Foch, which was commissioned in 1963. The Clemenceau, which entered service in 1961, was decommissioned in 1997. Both were modified to handle the AN 52 nuclear gravity bomb with Super Etendard aircraft. The Clemenceau was modified in 1979 and the Foch in 1981. The AN 52 was retired in July 1991. Only the Foch was modified to “handle and store” the replacement ASMP, approximately 20 of which were allocated for two squadrons (about 24) Super Etendard aircraft.
The Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier was launched on May 15, 1994, but various problems encountered during sea trials have delayed its commissioning until October 2000, almost four years behind schedule. At that time, the Foch will be laid up. The de Gaulle will have a single squadron of Super Etendard (with presumably about 10 ASMPs) until the Rafale M is introduced in 2002. The navy is reportedly asking for a second ship, tentatively named the Richelieu. The navy plans to purchase a total of 60 Rafale M, the first 16 of which will perform an air-to-air role. Missions for subsequent planes may include the ASMP and/or ASMP Plus.
We estimate that eventually there will be 288 warheads—because only enough missiles and warheads will be purchased to fully stock three of the four Triomphant-class subs. Less than full loading is the case today, with five submarines in the fleet and only four sets of M4 SLBMs.
Under a reorganization plan, the navy will base its SSBNs (formerly at Ile-Longue) and SSNs (formerly at Toulon) at Brest. The navy will shut down its SSBN command installations at Houilles (Yvelines) and transfer their activities to Brest. The submarine communication infrastructure will remain at Rosnay (Indre).
The French defense ministry released a report in 1999 detailing cost figures for its submarine program. The total acquisition cost is estimated to be approximately 45 billion francs ($9 billion), not including the cost of the nuclear warheads. The report also estimated that it will cost 100 billion francs ($20 billion) to maintain the weapons in service for 30 years.
Britain
In July 1998, Britain's Labour government announced several decisions resulting from its Strategic Defence Review:
Only one British submarine will patrol at any given time, and that boat will carry a reduced load of 48 warheads, half the number the Con-
servative government had previously planned.
The submarine will patrol at a reduced state of alert, its missiles de-targeted. It will be capable of firing its missiles within days, not minutes as during the Cold War. It will also carry out a range of secondary tasks.
Britain will maintain fewer than 200 operationally available warheads. This is a one-third reduction from the Conservative government's plan.
Britain will purchase a total of 58 rather than 65 Trident D-5 missiles.
When these decisions are fully implemented, the total explosive power of Britain's operationally available weapons will have been reduced by more than 70 percent since the end of the Cold War. The explosive power of each Trident submarine will be one-third less than that of the Chevaline-armed Polaris submarines of recent years.
The Atomic Weapons Establishment is now managed by an industrial consortium consisting of Lockheed Martin, Serco Limited, and British Nuclear Fuels, which took over on April 1, 2000, under a 10-year, 2.2-billion-pound contract. On April 1, 1999, the Chief of Defence Logistics assumed overall responsibility for the routine movement of nuclear weapons within the United Kingdom. Day-to-day duties are gradually being transferred from RAF personnel to the Ministry of Defence Police, with support from AWE civilians and the Royal Marines. The process will be completed by March 31, 2002.
Until recently, the Royal Air Force operated eight squadrons of dual-capable Tornado GR.1/1A aircraft. But with the withdrawal of the last remaining WE177 bombs at the end of March 1998, the Tornadoes' nuclear role was terminated, bringing to an end the four-decade-long history of RAF aircraft carrying nuclear weapons. By the end of August 1998, the remaining WE177 bombs had been dismantled. The RAF base at Bruggen, Germany, is scheduled to be closed, and by the end of 2001 approximately 40 Tornadoes now at the base will be reassigned to bases at Lossiemouth, Scotland, and Marham, England.
BRITISH NUCLEAR FORCES, 2000
Britain built and deployed four Resolution-class SSBNs, commonly called Polaris submarines after the missiles they carried. The first, the Resolution, went on patrol in mid-June 1968, and the last—the Revenge—in September 1970. The four boats conducted a total of 229 patrols over a 28-year period. The Revenge was retired on May 25, 1992, after 56 patrols. The Resolution was decommissioned on October 22, 1994, after 61 patrols. The Renown was decommissioned on February 24, 1996, after 52 patrols, and the Repulse was withdrawn from service on August 28, 1996, after 60 patrols. Presumably, the Chevaline warheads they carried have been dismantled.
The first submarine of Britain's new class, the Vanguard, began its initial patrol in December 1994. The second, the Victorious, entered service in December 1995. The third, the Vigilant, was launched in October 1995 and entered service in the fall of 1998. The fourth and final boat of the class, the Vengeance, was launched on September 19, 1998, and was commissioned on November 27, 1999, at the Marconi-Marine Shipyard in Barrow-in-Furness. It will enter service as part of the First Submarine Squadron, and go on patrol in late 2000 or early 2001. The submarine has a total complement of 205 men, which includes a ship's company of about 130. The current estimated cost of the program is $18.8 billion.
Each Vanguard-class SSBN carries 16 U.S.-produced Trident II D-5 SLBMs. Technically, there are no specifically American or British Trident IIs. A pool of SLBMs are kept at the Strategic Weapons Facility Atlantic at the Kings Bay Submarine Base in Georgia. Britain has title to 58, but does not actually own them. A missile that is deployed on a U.S. SSBN may at a later date deploy on a British boat, or vice versa.
How many warheads will there be in the future British stockpile? Several factors go into the calculation. We assume that Britain will produce enough warheads for only three boatloads of missiles, a practice it followed with Polaris. As was stated in the Strategic Defence Review, there will be “fewer than 200 operationally available warheads.” If all four boats were fully loaded (MIRVed with three warheads) that would total 192. But the purchase of only 58 missiles means there will not be a full complement of missiles for all four boats. The government also stated that normally only one SSBN will be on patrol, with the other three in various states of readiness.
A further consideration is the “sub-strategic” mission. A Ministry of Defence official described a substrategic strike as “the limited and highly selective use of nuclear weapons in a manner that fell demonstrably short of a strategic strike, but with a sufficient level of violence to convince an aggressor who had already miscalculated our resolve and attacked us that he should halt his aggression and withdraw or face the prospect of a devastating strategic strike.”
This substrategic mission began with Victorious and “will become fully robust when Vigilant enters service,” according to the Ministry of Defence's 1996 White Paper. If this has remained the policy, then some Trident II SLBMs already have a single warhead and are assigned targets once covered by WE177 gravity bombs. For example, when the Vigilant is on patrol, 10, 12, or 14 of its SLBMs may carry up to three warheads per missile, but the other two, four, or six missiles may be armed with just one warhead. There is also some flexibility in the choice of yield of the Trident warhead. (Choosing to detonate the unboosted primary only could produce a yield of a few kilotons.) With dual missions, an SSBN would have approximately 36-44 warheads on board during patrol.
We estimate that the future British stockpile for the SSBN fleet will be around 160 warheads. With an additional 15 percent for spares, we estimate the total British stockpile to be approximately 185 warheads. At any given time, the sole SSBN on patrol might carry about 40 warheads. The second and third SSBNs could put to sea fairly rapidly with a similar loading, while the fourth might take longer due to the cycle of overhaul and maintenance.
Ten nuclear-powered attack submarines of the Trafalgar-class and the Swiftsure-class are scheduled to receive upgrades to carry U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles by 2008. The first submarine to be upgraded, the Splendid, fired Tomahawk missiles during Operation Allied Force. The upgrade of a second submarine, the Triumph, was completed by the end of 1999.