Abstract
Rule 1: See what sticks …
When assembling a coalition, gather the names of allies (remember, island nations count, too!), place them on a list, and release the list to the international media.
Cross fingers. Some “friends” might point out that they never agreed. When Solomon Islands Prime Minister Alan Kemakeza discovered that the Bush administration had named his country a willing participant in the Iraq War, Kemakeza balked: “The government is completely unaware of such statements being made, therefore wishes to disassociate itself from the report,” he said. Those that remain quiet make up the coalition.
… or do an interpretive dance
When Turkey declined to be a staging area for the Iraq War in 2003, then-press secretary Ari Fleischer explained to the White House press corps: “If Turkey does not make the decision to allow for the greater use of Turkey–or the increased use of Turkey for this basing, that doesn't mean that Turkey is playing no role. It's just a question of how active a role will Turkey play.”
Rule 2: Be willing to take their word for it (or not)
Normally, multilateral initiatives require participating nations to supply at least some resources. Not anymore. Now countries can enter into multilateral agreements like Bush's Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) by doing nothing, but saying that they would do something if they could.
Don't expect much in return
In October 2004, 22 PSI supporters (a total of 60 nations back the initiative) attended an interdiction exercise in which U.S. sailors and guardsmen instructed representatives of other nations how to steer ships ashore and let U.S. officials search for and seize nuclear material; all but four countries served as “observers.” As for the “Coalition of the Willing,” 10 countries (as of January 2005) offer little more than flyover rights and moral support for military operations in Iraq.
Wink once for yes, twice for no
Even a private remark might suffice for PSI membership, according to the administration's answers to frequently asked questions: “The preferred means of conveying explicit support for the PSI Statement of Interdiction Principles is through diplomatic note or another form of official correspondence, accompanied by a public statement of support, if possible” [emphasis added].
Rule 3: Replace old friends with new ones
Sometimes long-time allies won't play ball, making it necessary to look for new allies. Eastern Europe provides fertile ground for new friends because it contains plenty of countries, which helps pad alliance numbers, and those countries ache for Western acceptance.
Surefire methods of securing support of new friends (in Eastern Europe or elsewhere)
Bribe ‘em. “I make no promises, but we will remember who our friends are. The Polish people have been strong friends of the United States. For that, we are very grateful,” Bush told the Polish broadcast outlet TVP in May 2003 regarding the possibility of U.S. bases in Poland.
Dangling NATO membership works, too. Bulgaria and Romania supported the Iraq War hoping to fast-track their admittance; they gained entry to the alliance in May 2004.
Bully ‘em. “Last week, U.S. Amb. Tony Garza said there would be ‘no direct reprisals’ if Mexico didn't support the Bush administration on Iraq,” the Washington Post reported in March 2003. “But he cautioned that the U.S. Congress could hinder trade and other items dear to Mexico. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, on a recent visit to Mexico, warned that Washington would be ‘very unhappy’ if Mexico voted no at the United Nations.” Mexico voted no, and vital U.S.-Mexican issues like immigration reform remain at a standstill.
“Liberate” ‘em. Get an instant ally by, ahem, freeing a populace from oppression. See the Afghan government statement of support for Operation Iraqi Freedom, which reads as if dictated by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz: “The emergence of a united and independent Iraq, based on the will of the people, will be helpful to peace and stability of the region and the world.”
Rule 4: Never put anything in writing
Avoid signing documents and records that clearly define the purpose and limits of a multilateral initiative and establish participants' accountability. Vague statements that merely hint at what could be involved in participation in an initiative are preferable.
Disrupt, disrupt, disrupt
“What is different about [the PSI] is that it's an activity, not an organization. It has no director-general, it has no headquarters, it has no secretariat, it has no budget,” Undersecretary of State John Bolton told reporters on the initiative's one-year anniversary. “We just want to encourage more countries to work with us in a variety of ways to conduct interdictions and other disruptive activity.”
Rule 5: It's all about U.S., not us
Pursue national agendas first and foremost. Setting rigid national goals makes it possible to disparage debate and accuse critics of being unwilling to pull the trigger.
Talk softly and carry a big stick
“A new term in office is an important opportunity to reach out to our friends. I hope to foster a wide international consensus among three great goals,” Bush told a crowd in Halifax, Nova Scotia soon after his reelection. “The success of multilateralism is measured not merely by following a process, but by achieving results. The objective of the United Nations and other institutions must be collective security, not endless debate.”