Abstract
The good news: We're not running out of energy. The bad news: Most of that energy is locked away in fossil fuels such as oil and coal that produce carbon emissions–which contribute to climate change.
Two statistics produced by the International Energy Agency succinctly summarize the scope of the problem: Some $20 trillion in energy investment will be required in the next 25 years to meet growing demand; while the global use of fossil fuels will rise by more than 50 percent unless world leaders support more “sustainable” options such as nuclear power and renewable energy sources.
But which of these options is truly sustainable? Or, put another way, which is the most cost-effective? As New York Times reporter Matthew L. Wald observes in this issue of the Bulletin, concerns over rising global temperatures are clashing with cold, hard economics. Wald reports, for instance, that a moribund nuclear manufacturing sector casts a pall over the exuberant expectations of a so-called nuclear renaissance: “The world hunts for a silver bullet, but nuclear's caliber is too small.” Ultimately, Wald concludes, “There is a future on the grid for almost everything…. What remains is to determine the proportions.”
In the Middle East, recent events indicate that a growing proportion of energy production could be nuclear. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are among several Arab governments that have expressed a sudden interest in developing “peaceful” nuclear power. Underlying these initiatives–according to researchers Sammy Salama and Heidi Weber–is the international community's failure to deter Iran from pursuing its nuclear ambitions. Concerns that Iran could be an emerging military power coupled with public admiration over Tehran's refusal to bow to Western demands has created a new political dynamic. “Arab governments (especially Egypt) feel justified in pursuing nuclear technology to maintain their leadership in the region,” write Salama and Weber. “At the same time, their nuclear endeavors are popular among citizens who feel Arab states have an un-alienable right to acquire nuclear technology.”
Preventing the acquisition of nuclear technology from becoming a proliferation nightmare is high on the international agenda. To that end, as Russia specialists Elena Sokova and Cristina Hansell Chuen report, Moscow hopes to establish an international uranium enrichment center that will operate as a transparent, reliable source of fuel for nuclear power production. Beyond the nonproliferation benefits, Sokova and Chuen note that Russia also desires “to make inroads to the Western nuclear market, if not selling power plants then at least providing fuel enrichment, reprocessing, and storage services.” Further evidence, in other words, that future energy options will be guided as much by economic markets as by the marketplace of ideas.