Improving Conceptual Estimating Methods Using Historical Cost Data

Growing needs for the highway system are causing great concern, considering that federal and state funding cannot possibly support all the demands. To maximize the benefit of each allotted dollar, a dependable method for forecasting costs is needed. In 1993, the Federal Highway Administration and the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet authorized a study of current estimating methods for highway projects and the development of a better method, if possible. The research led to the development of a computer program, KYEstimate. It uses historical cost data and project length to calculate a unit cost (cost/kilometer or cost/mile), and promises to improve conceptual estimates for highway projects. KYEstimate is most beneficial in the planning stages of a project; the estimate produced should be viewed as a preliminary estimate only. The program has been designed to complement the skills of an estimator, and should make the conceptual estimating process easier and less time consuming. KYEstimate also provides justification and documentation for the estimate. Using their own historical data, other states could also benefit from this type of conceptual estimating.