Evaluating Effects of Transportation Demand Management Strategies on Trip Generation by Using Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression

Abstract

Most trip generation models are insensitive to the effects of transportation demand management (TDM) strategies. To evaluate the potential effectiveness of TDM solutions, transportation professionals must rely largely on the results of case studies, which cannot be generalized for all urban areas. To evaluate TDM strategies in a context that is sensitive to the unique characteristics of each urban area, TDM strategies should be incorporated into regional travel demand models. Five TDM strategies affecting trip generation rates are examined: telecommunications, alternative work schedules, on-site amenities, pricing strategies, and land use strategies. To analyze these strategies, data from the Puget Sound Transportation Panel (PSTP) were used. Variables derived from the PSTP data that may help explain the impacts of these strategies were evaluated for significance in trip generation models for several home-based and non-home-based trip purposes. The trip generation models were specified using Poisson and negative binomial regression techniques. After the models were estimated, the significance of the variables representing the impacts of TDM strategies was analyzed. Many of the TDM variables were indeed significant in the trip generation models; however, in some cases, the significance of the variables can be attributed to factors such as trip chaining, which does not describe the effects of TDM strategies. Additional research is needed to fully determine the effects of trip chaining on the variables examined in this study, and additional data could enable the development of variables that more accurately describe the effects of TDM strategies.

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