Forecasting and Assessing the Mobility Effects of Teleservices: Scenario Approach

Abstract

The information society is approaching; everything will change. New technology could enable commuters to decrease their number of physical trips. As a result of all kinds of new information and communication technology (ICT) services, it will be possible to live in the countryside and remain working in the city, 200 km (124 mi) away. The literature, especially scientific and empirical sources, however, tempers these expectations. The effects are limited, and there could be substantial side effects in the opposite direction, which could nullify the substitution effect. Given the discrepancies between expectations, one of the most important aspects of forecasting teleservices is uncertainty. This high uncertainty combined with high expectations often results in quasiaccurate forecasts or oversimplified speculation. The most important restriction in the many forecasts is the lack of complete and consistent future scenarios. A study that tried to address these restrictions by developing a scenario approach is reported. The approach is elaborated, using telecommuting as a case study. The study’s main conclusion is the confirmation that it is possible and useful to incorporate ICT services such as telecommuting into a scenario approach. The outcomes have additional value compared with estimates from literature because the magnitude of possible effects is considered instead of quasiaccurate predictions, the estimates are based on realistic and consistent societal scenarios, and the use of an operational transport model makes it possible to include second-order effects such as induced travel.

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