Development of Deterioration Prediction Models for Airfield Rigid Pavements

Predicting deterioration in airfield pavements is extremely important to maximize the benefits of pavement management. An accurate prediction of pavement deterioration helps the decision maker to determine the planning and cost allocation of maintenance and rehabilitation more effectively. Mathematical prediction models for the deterioration of rigid airfield pavements in South Korea were developed. To derive the models, an integrated database of pavement conditions, age, traffic volume, and other characteristics was assembled. A total of 847 sample units from six airports, from 6 to 40 years old, was used for the development and validation of the models. Four pavement deterioration prediction models were developed for unmaintained and maintained sites with respect to runways and taxiways. From the validation plots, the pavement condition indexes (PCIs) predicted were in good agreement with the measured PCIs. Results from the independent data demonstrated an acceptable degree of accuracy of the models. It was also found that there was no significant difference between low-speed sections (start and end of a runway) and high-speed sections (center portion of a runway).