Variations in Capacity and Delay Estimates from Microscopic Traffic Simulation Models

One of the issues involved in using microscopic simulation models is the variation in the simulation results. This study examined some of the more popular microscopic traffic simulation models, CORSIM, SimTraffic, and VISSIM, and investigated the variations in the performance measures generated by these models. The study focused on the capacity and delay estimates at a signalized intersection. The effects of link length, speed, and vehicle headway generation distribution were also investigated. With regard to variations in performance measures, the study found that CORSIM yields the lowest variations, whereas SimTraffic yields the highest. The highest variation in each simulation model normally occurs when the traffic demand approaches capacity. It was also found that delays are affected by the link length and speed in simulation models. Such an impact on delays is closely related to the range of speed variations. In general, shorter links and higher link speeds result in lower delays. There is no strong evidence that the headway distribution used to generate vehicles in the simulated network has any effect on capacity and delay estimates. Multiple simulation runs are necessary to achieve an accurate estimate on the true system performance measures. With a 10% error range in estimated delay, two to five runs may be enough for under-capacity conditions, but more than 40 multiple runs may be necessary to accurately estimate delay at, near, or over capacity.