The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 2000 provides methods to estimate performance measures and the level of service for different types of traffic facilities. Because neither the input data nor the model parameters are totally accurate, there is an element of uncertainty in the results. An analytical method was used to estimate the uncertainty in the service measures of two-lane highways. The input data and the model parameters were considered as random variables. The propagation of error through the arithmetic operations in the HCM 2000 methodology was estimated. Finally, the uncertainty in the average travel speed and percent time spent following was analyzed, and four approaches were considered to deal with uncertainty in the level of service.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Highway Capacity Manual. TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2000.
2.
KhatibZ. K., and KyteM.. Uncertainty in Projecting the Level of Service of Signalized and Unsignalized Intersections. Presented at the 80th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2001.
3.
MoodA. M., GraybillF. A., and BoesD. C.. Introduction to the Theory of Statistics, 3rd ed.McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York, 1974.
4.
HaugenE. B.Probabilistic Approaches to Design. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, 1968.
5.
McLeanJ. R.Two-Lane Highway Traffic Operations: Theory and Practice. Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, New York, 1989.
6.
BrilonW., and WeiserF.. Capacity and Speed-Flow Relationships on Rural Two-Lane Highways in Germany. In Proc., Third International Symposium on Highway Capacity: Country Reports (RysgaardR., ed.), Road Directorate and Transportation Research Board, Copenhagen, 1998.
7.
LuttinenR. T.Level of Service on Finnish Two-Lane Highways. In Transportation Research Circular E-C018: Fourth International Symposium on Highway Capacity, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2000, pp. 175–187.
8.
LuttinenR. T.Capacity and Level of Service on Finnish Two-Lane Highways. Finnra Report 18/2001. Finnish Road Administration, Helsinki, 2001.
9.
LuttinenR. T.Statistical Analysis of Vehicle Time Headways. Transportation Engineering Publication 87. Helsinki University of Technology, Otaniemi, Finland, 1996.
10.
BeckmannM., McGuireC. B., and WinstenC. B.. Studies in the Economics of Transportation. Yale University Press, New Haven, Conn., 1956.
11.
HarwoodD. W., MayA. D., AndersonI. B., LeimanL., and ArchillaA. R.. Capacity and Quality of Service of Two-Lane Highways. Final Report, NCHRP Project 3-55(3). Midwest Research Institute. University of California, Berkeley, 1999.
12.
Special Report 87: Highway Capacity Manual. HRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1965.
13.
LuttinenR. T.Percent Time-Spent-Following as Performance Measure for Two-Lane Highways. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1776, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2001, pp. 52–59.
14.
KitaH.Level-of-Service Measure of Road Traffic Based on the Driver’s Perception. In Transportation Research Circular E-C018: Fourth International Symposium on Highway Capacity, Proceedings, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2000, pp. 53–62.
15.
PecheuxK. K., PietruchaM. T., and JovanisP. P.. User Perception of Level of Service at Signalized Intersections: Methodological Issues. In Transportation Research Circular E-C018: Fourth International Symposium on Highway Capacity, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2000 pp. 322–335.
16.
HallF., WakefieldS., and Al-KaisyA.. Freeway Quality of Service: What Really Matters to Drivers and Passengers? In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1776, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2001, pp. 17–23.
17.
LuttinenR. T.Uncertainty in the Operational Analysis of Two-Lane Highways. TL Research Report 2/2001. TL Consulting Engineers, Ltd., Lahti, Finland, 2001.
18.
ChakrobortyP., and KikuchiS.. Examination of Fuzzy Notion of Levels of Service: Case of Freeway Traffic Flow. In Selected Proceedings of the 6th World Conference on Transport Research, Vol. 2, Lyon, France, 1992.
