Untangling Factors Behind Temporal Evolution of Mobility: Case of São Paulo,Brazil

Abstract

Mobility in the metropolitan region of São Paulo has declined in recent decades in spite of a general growth in motorization and living standards. Some important factors have been overlooked in the analysis of mobility. These relate to the evolution of sociodemographic attributes and to temporal changes in behavior: (a) changes in the population structure, primarily concerning the characteristics and social roles of women; (b) changing behavior concerning car ownership, a key factor behind mobility; and (c) temporal changes in the travel behavior of homogeneous groups of the population. Three results stand out from a cross-section analysis: the main factors behind mobility concern attributes that are changing in the population; these factors affect men and women differently; and significant differences in the travel behavior of men and women are related to the sociodemographic and economic categories that are changing faster in the population. Also, a longitudinal analysis, comparing data from 1987 and 1977, indicates that the mobilities of men and women have followed different paths. The results raise some methodologic challenges: population forecasting at a very disaggregate level and predicting temporal changes in travel behavior.

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