Methodology for Estimating Freight Volume Shift in an International Intermodal Corridor

Facilitating the movement of freight in developing countries is likely to have a significant impact on these countries’ economic development. For these countries, freight modeling is crucial, especially when alternative modes and routes exist, investments in infrastructure are limited, and the objective is to promote environmentally friendly intermodal transportation. However, limited research related to model freight demand is performed in developing countries, compared with the amount of research done in more developed countries. In general, freight transportation demand is a highly variable process over space and time, which precludes the prediction of future scenarios with certainty. This paper presents a methodological framework for the analysis that is required before development of an intermodal (i.e., involving both rail and ship) international transportation corridor. It outlines a simplified methodology for estimating freight volumes on the specific corridor, either in absolute numbers or percentages, when compared with alternative routes. This methodology overcomes issues such as limited availability of data and complexity of trends and relationships of the freight transportation demand characteristics. The resulting estimations can be used to assess whether a new international intermodal transportation corridor is viable and under what conditions. An application is demonstrated for a specific transportation corridor from ports on the Black Sea by maritime and rail connections to Greek ports in the Mediterranean.