Determinants of Changes in Mobility and Travel Patterns in Developing Countries

Abstract

This study analyzes changes in sociodemographic, activity, land use, and mobility patterns and their effects on travel dimensions in the context of a developing country. More specifically, increase in vehicle ownership (both two-wheelers and cars) and changes in mode choice over time are observed and analyzed with the use of household data from Chennai, India. Three sources of dynamics are analyzed: exogenous variable dynamics, sensitivity changes over time, and the influence of lagged and persistent effects. The key drivers of growth in travel demand include the increase in vehicle ownership, the number of workers, and the increase in female drivers. The influence of social and technological factors on vehicle ownership and mode choice such as peer pressure and mobile phone ownership are also significant. In addition, the effect of land use, accessibility, and activity has been investigated. Results show significant evidence of differences in travel decisions across different user segments (on the basis of driving knowledge and vehicle–worker ratio) and over time. The proposed disaggregate models provide a reasonably good description (goodness of fit is 47% to 64%) of the observed changes in travel patterns. The findings and results assume importance in the context of increasing congestion, declining public transportation share, and the imminent need for enhancing urban transportation system capacity in cities of developing countries.

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Morichi

Sustainable Transport for East Asian Megacities. Presented at 6th Annual Conference of the East Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Bangkok, Thailand, 2005.

Pucher

, Korattyswaroopam

, Mittal

, and Ittyerah

Urban Transport Crisis in India. Transport Policy, Vol. 12, No. 3, June 2005, pp. 185–198.

Pendakur

V. S.

A Policy Perspective for Sustainable Cities: Nonmotorized Transport in Asia. University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, 2002.

Gakenheimer

, and Zegras

Drivers of Travel Demand in the Developing World. A Synthesis of Eight Case Studies. World Business Council for Sustainable Development. www.wbcsd.org/web/publications/mobility/mobility-appendix.pdf. Accessed June 2006.

Dissanayake

, and Morikawa

Household Travel Behaviour in Developing Countries: Nested Logit Model of Vehicle Ownership, Mode Choice, and Trip Chaining. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Board, No. 1805, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2002, pp. 45–52.

Pallavan Transport Consultancy Services. Updating the CTTS Carried Out in 1992–95. Draft final report. Tamilnadu Urban Infrastructure Financial Services Limited, Chennai, India, 2004.

Train

K. E.

, and Winston

Vehicle Choice Behaviour and the Declining Market Share of U.S. Automakers. Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., 2005. www.brookings.edu/views/papers/winston/200507.htm. Accessed Aug. 3, 2005.

Zhao

, and Kockelman

K. M.

Household Vehicle Ownership by Vehicle Type: Application of a Multivariate Negative Binomial Model. Presented at 81st Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2002.

Choo

, and Mokhtarian

P. L.

What Type of Vehicle Do People Drive? The Role of Attitude and Lifestyle in Influencing Vehicle Type Choice. Transportation Research Part A—Policy and Practice, Vol. 38, No. 3, 2004, pp. 201–222.

10.

Tuan

V. A.

, and Shimizu

Modeling of Household Motorcycle Ownership Behaviour in Hanoi City. Journal of East Asia Society for Transportation, Vol. 6, 2005, pp. 1751–1765.

11.

Mohammadian

, and Miller

E. J.

Dynamic Modeling of Household Automobile Transactions. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1831, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2003, pp. 98–105.

12.

Ramjerdi

, Rand

, and Sætermo

Models for Car Ownership, Transactions and Vehicle Type. Paper presented at 7th International Association for Travel Behaviour Research Conference, Austin, Tex., 1997.

13.

Meurs

Trip Generation Models with Permanent Unobserved Effects. Transportation Research B, Vol. 24, No. 2, 1990, pp. 145–158.

14.

Dargay

, and Vythoulkas

Estimation of Dynamic Car Ownership Model: A Pseudo-panel Approach. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol. 33, No. 3, 2000, pp. 287–302.

15.

Ortuzar

J. D.

, and Willumsen

L. G.

Modeling Transport. John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 2001.

16.

Kitamura

Panel Analysis in Transportation Planning: An Overview. Transportation Research A, Vol. 24, 1990, pp. 401–415.

17.

Clarke

, Dix

, and Goodwin

Some Issues on Dynamics in Forecasting Travel Behaviour—A Discussion Paper. Transportation, Vol. 11, 1982, pp. 153–172.

18.

Golob

T. F.

, Wissen

L. V.

, and Meurs

A Dynamic Analysis of Travel Demand. Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 20A, No. 5, 1986, pp. 401–414.

19.

Golob

T. F.

The Dynamics of Household Travel Time Expenditures and Car Ownership Decisions. Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 24A, No. 2, 1990, pp. 443–463.

20.

National Council of Applied Economic Research Report. www.ncaer.org/Lbrry.asp. Accessed April 5, 2006.

21.

Toward a Discussion of Support to Urban Transport Development in India. Energy and Infrastructure Unit, South Asia Region, World Bank, Washington, D.C., March 2005. siteresources.worldbank.org/INTSARREGTOPTRANSPORT/Resources/UrbanTransportSectorStrategyNote.pdf. Accessed July 5, 2006.

22.

Srinivasan

Land Use Change as a Tool: A Framework to Link Transportation and Environment in New Delhi, India. Workshop on Transportation, Land Use, and the Environment, Pune, India, Dec. 2–3, 2001.