Population Updating System Structures and Models Embedded in the Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator for Urban Systems

This paper describes the development of a population update modeling system as part of the development of the comprehensive econometric microsimulator for socioeconomics, land use, and transportation systems (CEMSELTS), which is part of the comprehensive econometric micro-simulator for urban systems (CEMUS) under development at the University of Texas at Austin. The research in this paper recognizes that modeling the linkages among demographics, land use, and transportation is important for realistic travel demand forecasting. The population update modeling system focuses on modeling events and actions of individuals and households in the urban region. An analysis framework is proposed to predict future population characteristics by modeling the changes to all relevant attributes of the households and individuals. The models identified in the analysis framework are estimated for the Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas, region. The econometric structures used include deterministic models, rate-based probability models, binary logit models, multinomial logit models, and ordered-response probit models. To verify the outputs from these models, the predicted results for the year 2000 are compared with observed 2000 census data.