Same-Day Mode Choice Modeling with Household Vehicle Usage Simulation in Developing Countries

This paper presents a model of same-day mode choice at the household level for developing countries. A rule-based algorithm combining classical random utility maximization theory within a microsimulation framework is used. Modeling of private vehicle usage (including vehicle allocation and sharing use in household) is an essential component of this model because vehicle deficiency is common in developing countries. This model consists of four steps: (a) the allocation of private vehicles (car, motorcycle, and bicycle) in a household, (b) the mode choice of private vehicle users specified in the first step, (c) vehicle sharing in a household, and (d) the mode choice of individuals who do not use private vehicles. The adaptability of the model was improved by simulations on car, motorcycle, and bicycle usage. Discrepancies in the mode choice behavior of household members with and without the use of private vehicles are captured in this paper through different modeling methods. The rule-based algorithm, binary logit model, multinomial logit model, and mixed logit model were applied together in this four-step model. Travel diary survey data from 2007 from Bengbu, China, were used as an example for the validation test of this model. The results demonstrate that this model can accurately predict the mode choice of all household members in an internally self-consistent and theoretically credible manner for a midsize city in China. The proposed model is highly conducive to travel demand forecasting and transportation policy making.