Dynamic Activity Generation Model Using Competing Hazard Formulation

Rule-based activity scheduling microsimulation models often generate activities for individuals to engage in randomly, on the basis of observed activity rates from survey data. These microsimulation models try to represent more closely the process of activity pattern development. However, the dynamics underlying the activity generation process are often not considered, especially in regard to competition between activities for the limited time resource. This work, then, develops a methodology for generating activities on the basis of the time since the last activity of the same type was generated, by using a hazard-based formulation. In addition, the model explicitly accounts for the competition between activities through the use of a competing hazard framework. The results show that observed activity rates and temporal distributions from survey data can be replicated through simulation of the model in an activity-based scheduling model, the agent-based dynamic activity planning and travel scheduling (ADAPTS) activity scheduler.