This paper describes a comprehensive vehicle fleet composition, utilization, and evolution simulator that can be used to forecast household vehicle ownership and mileage by type of vehicle over time. The components of the simulator are developed in this research effort by using detailed revealed and stated preference data on household vehicle fleet composition, utilization, and planned transactions collected for a large sample of households in California. Results of the model development effort show that the simulator holds promise as a tool for simulating vehicular choice processes in the context of activity-based travel microsimulation model systems.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
RoordaM. J., CarrascoJ. A., and MillerE. J.An Integrated Model of Vehicle Transactions, Activity Scheduling and Mode Choice. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 43, No. 2, 2008, pp. 217–229.
2.
FangA.Discrete-Continuous Model of Households’ Vehicle Choice and Usage, with an Application to the Effects of Residential Density. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 42, No. 9, 2008, pp. 736–758.
3.
BhatC. R., SenS., and EluruN.The Impact of Demographics, Built Environment Attributes, Vehicle Characteristics, and Gasoline Prices on Household Vehicle Holdings and Use. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 43, No. 1, 2009, pp. 1–18.
4.
BrownstoneD., and GolobT. F.The Impact of Residential Density on Vehicle Usage and Energy Consumption. Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 65, No. 1, 2009, pp. 91–98.
5.
HensherD. A., and Le PlastrierV.Towards a Dynamic Discrete-Choice Model of Household Automobile Fleet Size and Composition. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 19, No. 6, 1985, pp. 481–495.
6.
de JongG., and KitamuraR.A Review of Household Dynamic Vehicle Ownership Models: Holdings Models Versus Transactions Models. Proceedings of Seminar E, 20th PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, PTRC Education and Research Services Ltd., London, 1992, pp. 141–152.
7.
BrownstoneD., BunchD. S., and TrainK.Joint Mixed Logit Models of Stated and Revealed Preferences for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 34, No. 5, 2000, pp. 315–338.
8.
de HaanP., MuellerM. G., and ScholzR. W.How Much Do Incentives Affect Car Purchase? Agent-Based Microsimulation of Consumer Choice of New Cars, Part II: Forecasting Effects of Feebates Based on Energy-Efficiency. Energy Policy, Vol. 37, No. 3, 2009, pp. 1083–1094.
9.
MuellerM. G., and de HaanP.How Much Do Incentives Affect Car Purchase? Agent-Based Microsimulation of Consumer Choice of New Cars, Part I: Model Structure, Simulation of Bounded Rationality, and Model Validation. Energy Policy, Vol. 37, No. 3, 2009, pp. 1072–1082.
10.
MohammadianA., and MillerE. J.Dynamic Modeling of Household Automobile Transactions. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1831, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2003, pp. 98–105.
11.
YamamotoT., KitamuraR., and KimuraS.Competing-Risks-Duration Model of Household Vehicle Transactions with Indicators of Changes in Explanatory Variables. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1676, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1999, pp. 116–123.
12.
PrillwitzJ., HarmsS., and LanzendorfM.Impact of Life-Course Events on Car Ownership. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1985, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2006, pp. 71–77.
13.
YamamotoT.The Impact of Life Course Events on Vehicle Ownership Dynamics—The Cases of France and Japan. IATSS Research, Vol. 32, No. 2, 2008, pp. 34–43.
14.
de JongG. C., FoxJ., DalyA., PietersM., and SmitR.A Comparison of Car Ownership Models. Transport Reviews, Vol. 24, No. 4, 2004, pp. 379–408.
15.
BunchD. S.Automobile Demand and Type Choice. In Handbook of Transport Modelling (HensherD. A., and ButtonK. J., eds.), Pergamon, Oxford, England, 2000, pp. 463–479.
16.
EluruN., BhatC. R., PendyalaR. M., and KonduriK. C.A Joint Flexible Econometric Model System of Household Residential Location and Vehicle Fleet Composition/Usage Choices. Transportation, Vol. 37, No. 4, 2010, pp. 603–626.
17.
LeeL. F.Generalized Econometric Models with Selectivity. Econometrica, Vol. 51, No. 2, 1983, pp. 507–512.
18.
BhatC. R., and EluruN.A Copula-Based Approach to Accommodate Residential Self-Selection Effects in Travel Behavior Modeling. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 43, No. 7, 2009, pp. 749–765.
19.
BorjessonM.Joint RP–SP Data in a Mixed Logit Analysis of Trip Timing Decisions. Transportation Research Part E, Vol. 44, No. 6, 2008, pp. 1025–1038.
20.
TrivediP. K., and ZimmerD. M.Copula Modeling: An Introduction for Practitioners. Foundations and Trends in Econometrics, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2007.
