Cost Functions for Strategies in Schedule-Based Transit Networks with Limited Vehicle Capacities

Passengers in congested transit networks need to understand capacity constraints of vehicles when network congestion prevents boarding a vehicle. A strategy concept was developed for schedule-based networks. The passenger is assumed to know the schedule, to be aware of the capacity constraints, and to realize the possibility of being unable to board a vehicle. Therefore, the passenger must plan for several what-if scenarios at each decision point of the trip. The concept of strategies in networks with capacity constraints was extended in a study. The strategy costs were defined in terms of a random variable. Properties of this random variable, mean value and variance, for example, were used to define new types of cost functions. This approach accounts for passengers' aversion to travel time variability and risk. In the literature, these ideas were originally developed for path choice models in private traffic but had not yet been applied to public transport. In the current study, the developed mean excess approach was adjusted so that it could be applied to public transport.