Developing Pavement Performance Models for Delaware

The Delaware Department of Transportation (DOT) uses its pavement management system to monitor the condition of road pavements within its jurisdiction. As part of the pavement management system, the Delaware DOT has in place a database containing an inventory of roads with features such as location, geometry, functional class, age, type of surface overlay, pavement condition rating, and the annual average volume of traffic carried. Essential tools for any pavement management system are a database of pavement performance data and a suite of pavement performance models that portray past roadway performance and predict future roadway condition. These resources inform managers and other practitioners about the state of their roads and equip them with the background needed to make informed decisions about interventions to keep the roads in good condition. This study sought to develop performance models for the Delaware DOT pavement management system. The study began by reviewing literature on how pavement performance models have been developed in the past. The knowledge obtained served as the basis for development of the models. Performance models were developed with data from the pavement management system after they had been checked for completeness and consistency. The models were sound and were validated statistically to determine if they met given roadway boundary conditions. Recommendations were made on how data within the pavement management system could be improved to increase the power of predictability of future models.