Abstract
The purpose of this study was to forecast road investment needs in the oil- and gas-producing counties of North Dakota over the next 20 years in light of its expected population growth and the growth of oil and gas production. With the essential objective of quantifying the additional investments necessary for efficient year-round transportation of oil while providing travelers with acceptable roadway service, the study focused on roads owned or maintained by local governments, e.g., counties and townships. Impacts and funding needs were analyzed for three types of roads: paved, gravel, and graded and drained. The analysis was based on three main data sources: oil production forecasts, traffic data, and county road surveys. The forecast output of wells was routed over the road network to pipelines, with a detailed geographic information system model in which oil movements were represented as equivalent tractor–semitrailer trips that follow least-cost paths. The projected inputs of sand and water and the outbound movements of salt water to disposal sites were similarly routed. These predicted inbound and outbound movements were accumulated for each impacted segment. Movements of specialized equipment were included in the analysis. Several types of potential road improvements, including reconstruction and structural overlays, were analyzed in this study. The model developed in this research can be transferred to other states where new oil fields are opening and analysis is required for additional investment in highway infrastructure.
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